The Arab Spring hasn’t ended, and Arab regimes know it

Exactly 15 years ago, the self-immolation of Mohammed Bouazizi successful Tunisia prompted an unprecedented pan-Arab protestation question that demonstrated the overwhelming Arab tendency for much antiauthoritarian forms of government.

In bonzer scenes, millions of protesters crossed respective countries rallied against authoritarian leaders who had been successful powerfulness for decades, challenging governmental systems defined by repression, corruption, and exclusion.

Protester complaints revolved astir centralised powerfulness structures that bred corruption and injustice and concentrated wealthiness successful the hands of a comparative few. What followed was not simply a determination revolt, but a historical request for dignity, accountability, and antiauthoritarian rule.

Predictably, regimes responded with heavy-handed tactics – galore demonstrators were killed, beaten, oregon arrested.

But the pro-democracy question achieved important aboriginal successes.

Within months, 4 longstanding dictators – Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak, Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi, and Yemen’s Ali Abdullah Saleh – were each toppled.

In a fistful of countries – Bahrain, Algeria, and Iraq among them – regimes successfully quelled protests, ending them earlier they could summation superior momentum.

Protest movements successful different countries resulted successful constricted reforms or, successful the lawsuit of Syria, prolonged civilian warfare without contiguous authorities change.

Like Syria, Libya and Yemen yet descended into convulsive conflict.

Egypt and Tunisia were the lone Arab Spring countries that could constituent to important longer-term successes – some countries rapidly toppled their dictators and astir instantly began antiauthoritarian transitions.

Despite mixed results, observers mostly praised the Arab Spring arsenic a revolutionary antiauthoritarian infinitesimal for a portion agelong mired successful tyranny. Yet, 15 years on, it is wide that portion fashionable demands for ideology endured, authoritarian regimes person learned however to guarantee specified uprisings would ne'er win again.

The cases of Egypt and Tunisia

In some Egypt and Tunisia, antiauthoritarian transitions appeared initially to instrumentality hold: Constituent assemblies were formed, caller constitutions were drafted, caller governmental parties and media outlets were established, and caller governmental leaders were elected.

Importantly, successful some countries, parties formed by the Muslim Brotherhood – which has agelong been well-organised successful overmuch of the portion – rapidly gained influence.

Some observers viewed the governmental emergence and power of centrist Islamists arsenic thing benign, adjacent positive, portion others argued it posed a problem.

Arguments astir the imaginable merits oregon shortcomings of governmental Islam aside, some Egypt and Tunisia were initially seen arsenic hopeful models of Arab antiauthoritarian transformation, precisely due to the fact that they suggested that authoritarianism was not an Arab inevitability.

Although their transitions were fraught with superior challenges and sometimes full-on crises, some countries showed that modern Arab societies were susceptible of gathering antiauthoritarian systems, adjacent if imperfect and fragile.

More importantly, perhaps, the examples of Egypt and Tunisia showed that Arab citizenries were democratically anxious – predetermination turnout figures successful some countries were comparable to those of immoderate established Western democracies.

But appearances and elector turnout numbers were astatine slightest partially deceiving, peculiarly successful the lawsuit of Egypt, wherever the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party and its representatives came retired victorious successful referendums and elections, including the presidency, but ne'er genuinely held power.

Egypt’s “deep state” – the military, police, quality agencies, judiciary and media apparatus – ne'er afloat exited the governmental scene.

The aged authorities successfully sabotaged a brace of elected parliaments and then, successful the summertime of 2013, collaborated with anti-Islamist Egyptian liberals to overthrow Egypt’s first-ever democratically elected president, Mohamed Morsi.

The 2013 Egyptian coup represented a implicit antiauthoritarian reversal, a instrumentality to the pre-2011 presumption quo, and arguably thing adjacent much tyrannical.

Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who had served arsenic Morsi’s defence minister, rapidly consolidated power. He oversaw wide killings, wide arrests, governmental enactment bans, media closures, sham elections, and the eventual overhaul of Egypt’s ineligible and governmental frameworks.

Experts person argued cogently that the authoritarian strategy el-Sisi has created is adjacent much despotic than Mubarak’s.

Tunisia’s flirtation with ideology lasted longer than Egypt’s but yet experienced a akin backslide.

In 2014, Tunisia prepared a caller constitution and elected its archetypal antiauthoritarian president, Beji Caid Essebsi.

But the 2019 predetermination of a caller president, Kais Saied, marked the opening of the extremity of Tunisia’s antiauthoritarian experiment.

In July 2021, astir 2 years aft taking office, Saied overthrew Tunisia’s nascent democracy, claiming exigency powers, dismissing the premier minister, and suspending parliament.

Since that time, Saied has further consolidated power.

Lessons learned

It is wide that the Egyptian and Tunisian regimes learned astatine slightest 1 happening from the 2010-2011 pro-democracy protestation movements: Their dictatorships had not been sufficiently authoritarian.

In some nations, the governmental and ineligible frameworks person been cautiously reengineered to forestall precisely the benignant of civilian disobedience witnessed 15 years ago.

Not adjacent the slightest protestation oregon absorption is to beryllium tolerated.

In Egypt, for example, a 2013 protestation instrumentality prohibits nationalist demonstrations; and a 2015 coercion instrumentality considers immoderate enactment of “intimidation” which “harms nationalist unity”, “disturbs the nationalist order”, oregon “impedes nationalist authorities … from carrying retired their work” to beryllium an enactment of “terrorism”.

The post-2013 Egyptian subject authorities has besides demonstrated that it volition not permission immoderate elections to chance.

The authorities has orchestrated sham elections, passed an electoral law that guarantees the parliament’s fealty to the president, and revised the constitution to widen el-Sisi’s regularisation to 2030.

Where cracks person allowed absorption figures to tally for president, el-Sisi has utilized his grip connected powerfulness to person them arrested oregon forced into imperishable exile.

Experts person noted however intimately Tunisia’s Saied has followed successful el-Sisi’s footsteps.

Although helium hasn’t established el-Sisi-level repression successful Tunisia, Saied has, similar his Egyptian counterpart, rewritten the constitution, expanded statesmanlike powers and eliminated checks and balances.

Data gathered by the Bertelsmann Transformation Index amusement that, connected galore governmental and economical indicators, Tunisia has regressed to pre-Arab Spring levels.

Cracks successful the system

Fifteen years aft the Arab Spring, the basal problems that led to demonstrations – corruption, injustice, and economical hardship – inactive beryllium and are possibly much pressing present than they were backmost then.

Arab countries overwhelmingly people poorly connected the yearly Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), with galore placed adjacent the bottommost of the satellite rankings, and states besides stay mired successful injustice.

For example, retired of 21 Arab countries precocious evaluated by Freedom House, nary were rated “free”; and of the 9 Arab nations assessed successful 2025 arsenic portion of the World Justice Project Rule of Law Index, astir placed adjacent the bottommost of planetary rankings.

Importantly, arsenic a full – Gulf countries notwithstanding – the Arab portion continues to beryllium mired successful economical hardship.

According to the World Bank, per capita gross home merchandise (GDP) remains exceedingly debased successful astir non-Gulf states, and the United Nations says nutrient shortages and hunger stay important problems crossed overmuch of the region.

Economic problems successful Egypt and Tunisia are indicative of conditions successful overmuch of the remainder of the region.

In Egypt, since the 2011 uprising, some the military’s economical empire and the inequality spread person grown, portion ostentation and poorness person increased.

Meanwhile, the Tunisian system is besides backsliding.

According to a caller study published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Saied’s economical attack has led to a immense summation successful interior indebtedness and a “collapse of [economic] growth”, successful summation to “reduced existent wages and accrued unemployment”.

Democracy: The elephant successful the room

What is possibly astir alarming for Arab regimes is that their citizenries proceed to overwhelmingly tendency antiauthoritarian government.

According to the Arab Opinion Index, much than 70 percent of Arab respondents enactment democracy, compared with lone 19 percent who bash not.

Survey results besides suggest that Arab citizens supply antagonistic assessments of ideology levels successful their countries; thin to subordinate ideology with freedom, equality, and justice; and clasp favourable views of the Arab Spring.

More caller Arab Barometer polling suggests akin findings.

The Arab Spring is not over

In December 2024, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad was toppled and forced into exile, astir 14 years aft the uprising against him began.

This cataclysmic lawsuit demonstrated, possibly amended than thing else, that analysts whitethorn person been premature successful declaring the decease of the Arab Spring.

Recent Gen Z protests successful Morocco connection much grounds that galore Arabs – particularly young radical – are able, willing, and acceptable to combat for change.

It may, then, beryllium lone a substance of clip earlier a boiling constituent is reached and different circular of protests begins.

Governments cognize the hazard is real. Egypt’s el-Sisi authorities again provides a utile lawsuit successful point.

In caller years, el-Sisi has been forced to repeatedly warn Egyptians against protesting.

During nationalist remarks respective years ago, helium said that a repetition of the 2011 uprising would “never hap again” successful Egypt.

The paranoia is existent – Egypt’s heavy authorities does not look consenting to instrumentality immoderate chances by opening up the governmental arena.

The authorities has precocious enactment its wide election-rigging programme into overdrive and is reportedly seeking to widen el-Sisi’s regularisation indefinitely.

Not contented with eliminating absorption astatine home, the Egyptian authorities has besides sought to forestall absorption abroad.

The authorities has tried to unopen down absorption media outlets based extracurricular Egypt and has sought to person fashionable absorption figures extradited to the country.

Earlier this year, a young Egyptian, Anas Habib, organised a peaceful protestation astatine the Egyptian embassy successful The Hague.

In response, Egypt’s overseas curate urged embassy unit determination to detain protesters and person them arrested. In an enactment of evident revenge, Egyptian authorities arrested Habib’s aged uncle successful Egypt.

Beyond Egypt, Arab states person precocious begun intensifying interior information cooperation, with governments aggressively seeking retired individuals wanted successful different countries for extradition.

These utmost actions underscore the paranoia: Arab regimes look to recognize that this is an intermission, not a finale, successful the Arab Spring.

History suggests that erstwhile the question continues, it volition not beryllium announced successful advance.

The radical astir ever person the past word. We simply bash not cognize erstwhile they volition take to talk it.

The views expressed successful this nonfiction are the author’s ain and bash not needfully bespeak Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.