The chart that shows how U.S. companies are trying to beat Trump's China trade war

The Trump administration's latest escalation of the commercialized warfare with China has drawn respective parallels to its origins backmost successful 2018.

However, determination is simply a important difference: the grade to which U.S. companies looked to debar rising tariffs by racing to bring successful much and much products from China up of them.

When comparing the highest of frontloading that occurred successful 2018 compared to 2025, U.S. shippers imported much than treble the percent of Chinese exports this year, according to information from ImportGenius.

To comparison the differences, CNBC utilized information from ImportGenius that dates backmost to 2016 anterior to the Trump commercialized warfare rhetoric.

In 2025, determination person been 3 large frontloading events arsenic a effect of the changing tariffs.

Ahead of "Liberation Day," importers began rushing successful containers from China starting successful January, followed by a flimsy alteration successful February and March. A 2nd smaller frontloading occurred betwixt March and April. The highest successful the pulling guardant of freight from China to the U.S. came successful betwixt June to July, wherever exports soared by 49% aft tariff rates were lowered to 34%.

In 2018, the tallness of freight loading came successful the Fall: betwixt the months of September and October wherever determination was a 12.2% summation successful containers, and betwixt the months of October and November, determination was an further 22% increase.

But determination are signs present that the level of exports from China is starting to drop, seen successful cardinal shipping information similar water freight bookings and water instrumentality spot rates.

"The quality successful exports from China to the U.S. betwixt July and August of this twelvemonth is simply a 40% drop," said Lynn Hughes, an investigative expert astatine ImportGenius. "Yes, the period isn't implicit yet, but realistically, we inactive lone person a week. Considering the magnitude of request already pulled guardant astatine the opening of the twelvemonth and the dependable decline, I consciousness we could beryllium astir to commencement seeing imports driblet beneath 600k TEU for respective months."

These orders person been entering U.S. ports successful July and August. The water freight orders being placed successful July and August volition commencement arriving successful September and October.

Spot rates connected the Transpacific way person besides steadily declined, according to maritime information institution Drewry. Rates from Shanghai–Los Angeles fell 3% ($2,412/forty-foot equivalent unit/ feu), and the complaint connected the Shanghai–New York way reduced 5% ($3,463/feu).

On its website, Drewry noted, "The signifier of accelerated purchasing by U.S. retailers, which induced an aboriginal highest season, has ended. In effect to a decelerating U.S. system and accrued tariff costs, they are present scaling backmost connected procurement. Hence, Drewry expects spot rates to beryllium little volatile successful the coming weeks."

Hughes said determination was a four-month driblet successful Chinese goods entering the U.S., aft the archetypal frontloading lawsuit successful 2018. The signifier has besides been seen successful respective different frontloading patterns. This includes aft the February 2025 frontloading, erstwhile US shippers raced to propulsion guardant products up of "Liberation Day."

"We cognize what these patterns look similar successful shipping now, and this is the astir imbalanced frontloading spike we've ever seen," said Hughes.