The price of mediation? How Qatar could respond to Israel’s attack

Doha, Qatar – The show of plumes of fume successful the aftermath of Israeli bombings person go commonplace crossed the Middle East successful caller months – but successful the skyline of Qatar’s glitzy capital, it was wholly unprecedented.

Israel’s onslaught connected Doha connected Tuesday – the sixth state it has attacked this twelvemonth – appeared to people the Palestinian radical Hamas’s negotiating team, who were speculated astatine the clip to beryllium connected the brink of closing a ceasefire woody for Gaza.

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Qatar has played big to truce negotiations passim the astir two-year conflict, a starring mediator successful the process – ne'er a combatant. It is besides a US ally, and the location of the US’s largest subject basal successful the Middle East.

Israel ignored reddish lines to signifier its onslaught successful the densely populated country of Qatar’s capital, located adjacent overseas embassies and schools, which killed five lower-ranked members of Hamas, arsenic good arsenic a Qatari Internal Security Force officer.

The attack has triggered a cascade of choler passim Qatar’s government, which has condemned it arsenic “state terrorism” and a “reckless transgression attack”.

“They spot this arsenic an enactment of cowardice and treachery,” Rashid al-Mohanadi, a nonresident chap astatine the Middle East Council connected Global Affairs, told Al Jazeera.

“Israel’s effort to assassinate the [Hamas] dialog squad successful the state of the mediator shows that the Israelis don’t person immoderate seriousness erstwhile it comes to reaching a [ceasefire] settlement.”

The onslaught has not lone called into question however Qatar mightiness respond, but besides the aboriginal of its well-established mediator role, arsenic good arsenic its defence alliances.

“This onslaught volition beryllium 1 of the important humanities shocks that volition pb Qatar and different GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] states to proceed their pursuit of diversified partnerships and [to] further prosecute strategical autonomy,” Sanam Vakil, the manager of the Middle East and North Africa Programme astatine Chatham House, told Al Jazeera.

‘Straw that breaks the camel’s back’?

Qatar volition apt leverage its relation arsenic a mediator successful effect to Israel’s attack, arsenic its options are limited, according to Cinzia Bianco, a visiting chap astatine the European Council connected Foreign Relations.

“Its main leverage is to propulsion backmost from the relation it has been playing for years … and usage that arsenic leverage to say, look, if you [do] not respect the neutrality of mediation, past you tin nary longer number connected america to mediate for this conflict,” Bianco told Al Jazeera.

However, Bianco added, this would apt lone beryllium utile successful pushing the US to act, alternatively than Israel, which appears to person small involvement successful agreeing to a ceasefire deal.

Qatar could besides usage economical unit against Israel, said al-Mohanadi.

“All options are connected the array and economical unit tin beryllium imposed connected the allies of Israel, namely Europe and the US,” if they bash not instrumentality superior steps to halt Israel, al-Mohanadi said. Qatar has billions of dollars worthy of investments successful Europe and the US.

Vakil suggests that Arab states could usage their diplomatic power to impulse Western allies to instrumentality effectual constraints connected Israel’s actions.

“Israel has struck 7 countries successful the Middle East, and hitting Qatar – I think, [it] could beryllium the straw that breaks the camel’s backmost for Israel,” she said.

Vakil added that the Trump medication mightiness use much nonstop unit connected Israel, which is yet what Arab states, including Qatar, anticipation to spot to forestall further information threats.

Furthermore, Qatar has the enactment of going to the United Nations to diplomatically isolate Israel. An exigency UN Security Council gathering volition instrumentality spot connected Thursday successful effect to Israel’s attack, pursuing requests from Algeria, Pakistan, and different nations, according to diplomatic sources.

On Wednesday, Doha besides announced the instauration of a ineligible squad headed by Qatari diplomat Mohammed bin Abdulaziz al-Khulaifi, “to instrumentality each ineligible measures against the treacherous Israeli attack, considering it an battle connected the state’s sovereignty and a flagrant usurpation of planetary law, conventions, and norms”.

Despite its constricted options for a response, successful al-Mohanadi’s view, Qatar is improbable to wantonness its mediator relation and volition proceed to propulsion for a ceasefire done the usage of multilateral organisations similar the UN Security Council.

“Qatar volition ne'er cease to beryllium the mediator, due to the fact that mediation is virtually successful [Qatar’s] constitution,” al-Mohanadi said, adding that the onslaught volition lone beryllium a “dent” successful the relation it has assumed successful galore conflicts for the past decade.

Qatar has served arsenic a mediator successful assorted planetary conflicts, facilitating bid discussions successful the Democratic Republic of the Congo, spearheading initiatives to reunite Ukrainian children displaced by the Russian war, and acting arsenic a important intermediary successful Afghan bid and humanitarian negotiations by hosting talks with the Taliban.

Eleonora Ardemagni, a elder subordinate probe chap astatine the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), agrees that portion determination is an “extremely narrow” model for Gaza ceasefire negotiations astatine the moment, Qatar volition proceed to play its mediator role. US-Qatar ties, however, person been blighted by the attack.

“Qatar is alert that it can’t go the spot wherever different powers successful the portion settee accounts – this is astir … nationalist security,” Ardemagni told Al Jazeera.

“US deterrence is nary longer capable to warrant information for Qatar, arsenic good arsenic for the different GCC states.”

The strike, therefore, leaves Qatar successful a hard presumption erstwhile it comes to hosting Hamas’s governmental leadership, said the analysts.

“I don’t deliberation that we are going to spot an contiguous eviction of Hamas’s enactment – that would look to amusement weakness oregon [play] into Israel’s hands,” said Vakil.

Qatar volition alternatively look for assurances from the US, fixed that “Qatar supported Hamas with the blessing of the United States galore years agone and with the blessing of Israel,” said Vakil.

Qatari officials person repeatedly stated that the determination to big the Hamas enactment came aft a petition from the US.

In a 2023 sentiment portion for The Wall Street Journal, the Qatari ambassador to the US, Sheikh Meshal bin Hamad Al Thani, said that Washington wanted the bureau “to found indirect lines of connection with Hamas”.

While the analysts concurred that Hamas enactment would not look contiguous expulsion from Doha, Bianco indicated determination is simply a “strong chance” Qatar volition reconsider hosting the group.

Following planetary backlash aft Hamas’s October 7, 2023, onslaught connected Israel, Doha had already been evaluating this risk, but chose to support the narration to assistance resoluteness the Gaza conflict, she explained.

“But if the terms to beryllium paid is that … they themselves go targets, I think, [it will] astir apt nary longer [be] worthy it,” said Bianco, noting that immoderate relocation would apt beryllium a coordinated, consensual transportation of the radical to different location.

Security diversification and brushed powerfulness blows

Tuesday’s onslaught volition apt accelerate Qatar’s – and the broader Gulf countries’ – pursuit of diversified information arrangements, according to al-Mohanadi.

That could mean gathering up their ain corporate defence capabilities oregon seeking information partnerships with actors similar China, helium said.

“What happened yesterday was not [just a] breach connected Qatar, it was a breach connected the full GCC, which was ever disconnected limits,” said the analyst.

The grade of this diversification volition hinge connected the US effect to the attack, helium added.

However, arsenic a large non-NATO state of the US, Qatar’s defence posture changes volition apt look gradually alternatively than immediately, Vakil pointed out.

“There are not excessively galore options for Qatar for it to pivot and determination determination other … Over the agelong term, Qatar volition look to forge oregon diversify bilateral and multilateral relationships,” she explained.

The analysts foretell Gulf countries volition unite implicit shared concerns astir determination destabilisation.

“With the Iranian onslaught against Al Udeid archetypal and present with the Israeli onslaught connected Doha, thing has changed successful the cognition that Gulf leaders person astir the future,” said Ardemagni, referring to Iran’s onslaught successful June connected the Al Udeid airbase successful Qatar, the largest US subject basal successful the Middle East.

“There’s a increasing consciousness of Gulf individuality and unity vis-a-vis outer attacks. I spot a emergence of patriotism and the consciousness of [a] nationalist unity … among Qatari residents and citizens.”

While the analysts hold that Qatar’s planetary investments – from London existent property holdings to ownership of European shot clubs – volition stay unaffected, Israel’s actions person dealt a stroke to Qatar’s home brushed powerfulness ambitions.

“This onslaught besides is an indirect aggression against [Qatar’s] aspiration to go a tourer hub and to clasp much planetary events,” said al-Mohanadi.