The South Caucasus is slipping from Russia’s grasp

Azerbaijan’s defiance aft a brutal constabulary raid that victimised its citizens signals a determination revolt against Kremlin control.

The caller flare-up betwixt Russia and Azerbaijan is acold much than a diplomatic spat: It marks a imaginable turning constituent successful the equilibrium of powerfulness successful the South Caucasus.

On June 27, Russian peculiar forces conducted a convulsive raid connected taste Azerbaijanis successful Yekaterinburg, an concern metropolis successful Russia’s Ural region. About 50 radical were detained, respective were reportedly injured, and 2 Azerbaijani brothers – Ziyaddin and Huseyn Safarov – died successful custody nether suspicious circumstances. Autopsies revealed blunt-force trauma and breached ribs, contradicting Russian claims that the men died of bosom failure. Survivors reported beatings, electrocution, and degrading treatment. Far from being seen arsenic a regular instrumentality enforcement action, the cognition has been wide interpreted successful Baku arsenic a politically motivated enactment of intimidation – prompting crisp condemnation from Azerbaijani officials and a question of choler from the public.

On July 1, Azerbaijan’s ambassador to Russia, Rahman Mustafayev, delivered a ceremonial protestation to Moscow, denouncing what helium described arsenic the unlawful sidesplitting and mistreatment of Azerbaijani citizens, including dual nationals. This diplomatic fallout unfolded conscionable arsenic Baku launched its ain high-profile crackdown connected organised transgression – 1 that notably included the apprehension of respective Russian nationals, immoderate reportedly linked to Kremlin-funded media outlets and others accused of cyberfraud and cause trafficking. Among those detained were section unit of Sputnik Azerbaijan, the state-run Russian quality agency. While the 2 episodes are officially unrelated, the timing suggests Azerbaijan is signalling a rejection of outer coercion and asserting its sovereignty with caller intensity.

These developments bespeak a deeper geopolitical shift. Russia’s accepted levers of power successful the post-Soviet abstraction – subject alliances specified arsenic the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), vigor dependency, and brushed powerfulness done Russian-language media – are weakening. Strained by the warfare successful Ukraine and planetary sanctions, the Kremlin has progressively turned to diaspora policing, symbolic shows of strength, and nationalist rhetoric to support control. The Yekaterinburg raid appears to acceptable this pattern: A objection of powerfulness aimed astatine a erstwhile Soviet republic present carving retired a much autarkic path.

Azerbaijan’s traditionally balanced overseas argumentation is present entering a much assertive phase. For years, Baku cautiously navigated its relations with Russia, the West, and Turkiye. But the events of the past week person marked a wide shift: Azerbaijan is adopting a firmer stance against Kremlin unit portion deepening its strategical alignment with Ankara. This evolving confederation is not lone strengthening bilateral ties but fostering broader determination integration done organisations specified arsenic the Organization of Turkic States (OTS).

The implications widen good beyond Azerbaijan. Moscow’s deteriorating narration with Baku whitethorn trigger a wider realignment crossed Central Asia. Kazakhstan has already taken steps to region itself from Russian influence, portion Armenia, nether Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, has publically questioned the reliability of Russian information guarantees. Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are simultaneously strengthening ties with Turkiye and China. In this context, Azerbaijan’s defiance signals not an isolated dispute, but a broader erosion of Moscow’s brushed powerfulness crossed the erstwhile Soviet sphere.

For the Kremlin, accepted diplomatic tools are proving progressively ineffective. In Azerbaijan, nationalist outrage implicit the deaths successful Yekaterinburg is helping signifier overseas argumentation successful ways that spell beyond ceremonial statecraft. Moscow present faces the existent imaginable of Baku firmly embedding itself successful the Turkish geopolitical orbit – supporting projects specified arsenic the Zangezur corridor, and reinforcing a trans-Caspian Turkic axis stretching from Anatolia to Central Asia. This imaginativeness stands successful stark opposition to the Kremlin’s fading Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) project, which present looks much similar a symbolic conception than a meaningful alliance.

Meanwhile, the media scenery has go different battleground. Russian authorities outlets – peculiarly firebrand figures similar Vladimir Solovyov – person adopted openly anti-Azerbaijani rhetoric, stoking taste and spiritual tensions. These attacks blur the enactment betwixt journalism and authorities propaganda, further inflaming bilateral tensions and undermining accepted diplomatic protocols.

Yet, amid the escalating tensions, Azerbaijan faces a uncommon strategical opportunity. If managed wisely, Baku tin leverage this infinitesimal to fortify its enactment relation wrong the Turkic satellite and reset its narration with Russia connected much adjacent terms. In the years ahead, Azerbaijan has the imaginable to look not conscionable arsenic a cardinal vigor hub, but arsenic a cardinal geopolitical histrion successful the South Caucasus and beyond.

The Yekaterinburg raid is not simply a substance of home policing. It is simply a grounds of the accelerating breakdown of Moscow’s grip implicit its “near abroad”. What happens adjacent – whether Russia adapts to the changing dynamics oregon attempts to reassert power done much coercive means – volition signifier the adjacent section of Eurasian geopolitics. One happening is already clear: The determination equilibrium of powerfulness is shifting, and Azerbaijan stands squarely astatine the centre of that transformation.

The views expressed successful this nonfiction are the author’s ain and bash not needfully bespeak Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.