The upcoming elections will not help stabilise Syria

In aboriginal August, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) exchanged occurrence with Syrian authorities forces adjacent Manbij successful Kurdish-majority northeastern Syria. The tensions successful the northbound came conscionable weeks aft bloodshed successful the south’s Suwayda governorate killed much than 1,400 radical and displaced astir 175,000. The unit betwixt Druze and Sunni Bedouin groups continued for much than a week and has inactive not afloat abated.

In March, groups loyal to erstwhile President Bashar al-Assad clashed with authorities forces and allied equipped factions successful the coastal governorates of Latakia and Tartus, dominated by the Alawite community. From 1,400 to 1,700 radical were killed successful the bloodshed, astir of them civilians; 128,500 radical were displaced.

The recurring unit has exposed the earthy sectarianism that al-Assad erstwhile manipulated to support power. Now, successful his absence, those divisions are metastasising, fuelled by a decennary of unresolved grievances, onshore disputes and the proliferation of equipped groups.

President Ahmad al-Sharaa, who took powerfulness aft al-Assad’s ouster, has truthful acold failed to physique spot crossed each factions, arsenic his main absorption has been planetary normalisation and economical development. His Islamist leanings are causing alarm among minorities, including the Druze, Alawites, Christians and Kurds, who fearfulness that his inability to rein successful the assorted equipped factions whitethorn effect successful much violence.

September’s elections whitethorn connection procedural legitimacy to al-Sharaa’s government, but without genuine information and reconciliation, they hazard deepening the existing divides and reinforcing a powerfulness operation that benefits a prime fewer astatine the disbursal of a genuinely unified nation.

Reconstruction and planetary recognition

Since coming to power, al-Sharaa has signalled that his nationalist strategy is overwhelmingly focused connected reconstruction and economical development. This is wherever his provisional authorities has concentrated its efforts.

In May, al-Sharaa spoke astatine an lawsuit successful the country’s 2nd biggest city, Aleppo, urging Syrians to articulation successful the reconstruction effort. “Our warfare with the tyrants has ended, and our conflict against poorness has begun,” helium declared successful his speech.

To unlock the economical imaginable of the country, al-Sharaa has sought to summation planetary recognition. With the assistance of Gulf states, the Syrian president has been capable to execute a large diplomatic victory: the lifting of sanctions and the removal of the equipped radical helium headed, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, from the database of “foreign violent organisations” by the United States government.

US President Donald Trump’s medication besides backed the imaginable integration of the SDF into the caller information apparatus. From Washington’s perspective, engaging with the caller authorities successful Damascus tin assistance trim Iranian power and forestall Syria from becoming a corridor for Hezbollah and different proxies. From al-Sharaa’s position this is simply a accidental to unafraid planetary designation and legitimacy.

Syria’s neighbour Turkiye is besides an important subordinate successful al-Sharaa’s nationalist strategy. It is providing noncombat subject enactment – training, proposal and method assistance – to assistance rebuild Syria’s information infrastructure. It besides is looking astatine a large relation successful the reconstruction effort.

This month, Turkiye began supplying Syria with earthy gas, helping to code the country’s vigor situation successful the north.

Meanwhile, Gulf states person pledged to put heavy successful Syria to assistance stabilise its economy. In July, Saudi Arabia announced $6.4bn successful investments successful existent property and infrastructure projects. Two weeks later, the Syrian authorities signed deals worthy $14bn with Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and different countries successful the fields of nationalist transport and existent estate.

However, galore critics would reason that portion economical enactment is indispensable for rebuilding, it cannot unsocial warrant stability. The information is that wealth and improvement whitethorn insubstantial implicit deep-seated resentments and divisions that could reignite into aboriginal conflicts. The existent situation for the caller Syrian authorities is to find a mode to equilibrium the urgent request for economical betterment with the arsenic important request to code people’s grievances.

Legislative elections

One mode to code tensions is to summation nationalist spot done a antiauthoritarian electoral process. Al-Sharaa has called for nationalist elections successful September, but mean Syrians volition not beryllium capable to formed their votes. That is due to the fact that 140 of the 210 seats volition beryllium chosen by section electoral committees portion 70 volition beryllium appointed straight by the president. There volition beryllium nary seats filled by fashionable vote.

This format is simply a straightforward governmental calculation. It provides the caller enactment with the assurance of a controlled result and avoids the challenges of organising a nationwide ballot astatine a clip erstwhile Damascus does not person afloat power implicit each territories and information cannot beryllium guaranteed.

But this electoral process is apt to beryllium met with mistrust from immoderate Syrians, particularly from number communities, arsenic they volition spot it arsenic favouring the Sunni majority. Some whitethorn take to boycott the elections, state them illegitimate oregon find alternate ways to explicit their profound displeasure with a strategy that denies them a meaningful voice.

The US and the European Union volition show the predetermination cautiously and volition apt instrumentality a captious stance if it fails to found a genuinely inclusive and typical parliament. This volition apt complicate the caller regime’s budding planetary relations and hinder its efforts to summation afloat diplomatic designation and support.

The much pressing occupation for Damascus volition beryllium that the elections volition not assistance heal the country’s heavy wounds astatine a clip of continuing sectarian tensions. That is wherefore Syria needs a nation-wide reconciliation process.

Justice and accountability

Syria’s interim authorities has yet to articulate a compelling imaginativeness for justness and accountability. War crimes nether al-Assad – which see wide detentions, torture and chemic attacks – stay unaddressed. There person been promises to clasp radical accountable for sectarian massacres, but nary factual steps person been taken.

The lack of accountability is not conscionable a motivation failure. It’s a strategical one. Without a ineligible model to clasp perpetrators accountable, Syria’s wounds volition fester.

Syria needs a caller societal contract, and the radical volition nary longer tolerate the aged foundations of impunity that defined the past regime.

The process of justness and accountability indispensable beryllium impartial and transparent. Given the deep-seated sectarian divisions and the decades of one-family regularisation by the al-Assad regime, which drew heavy connected the Alawite minority, the caller authorities cannot beryllium the sole arbiter of justice. A national, state-led process could easy beryllium accused of being a signifier of retribution against a peculiar sect oregon those associated with the aged regime. To antagonistic this cognition and guarantee fairness, Syria would greatly payment from the assistance of the planetary community, peculiarly the United Nations.

An entity similar the South African Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) could beryllium a almighty tool. Instead of focusing solely connected punishment, a TRC would prioritise uncovering the information astir past crimes, including wide killings, torture and embezzlement.

This process could assistance Syria determination distant from a solely punitive justness strategy that purges alternatively than reconciles. It could assistance the caller authorities physique nationalist spot and found a caller societal declaration based connected a shared imaginativeness alternatively than competing narratives. It could besides assistance dampen demands for federalism, which hazard weakening the state and undermining its security, stableness and economical development.

Syria’s modulation was ne'er going to beryllium easy. But the existent trajectory – economical improvement undermined by imaginable sectarian fragmentation and militarised authorities – risks turning post-Assad Syria into a failed state.

The planetary assemblage tin play a captious role, but its attack indispensable germinate beyond simply applauding procedural milestones. It indispensable enactment civilian nine and request accountability for crimes past and present. Otherwise, Syria’s aboriginal volition look hauntingly similar its past with caller leaders but the aforesaid aged cycles of unit and instability.

The views expressed successful this nonfiction are the author’s ain and bash not needfully bespeak Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.