Trump is desperate to take Greenland. Can NATO defend itself — and is it willing to?

Europe spent overmuch of 2025 scrambling to bolster its defenses against Russia — but conscionable a week into the caller year, it's being forced to rethink information erstwhile again amid President Donald Trump's threats to annex Greenland.

Trump has been ramping up calls for Greenland — a semi-autonomous Danish territory — to beryllium brought nether Washington's control. This week, the White House said Trump was considering assorted options to marque it happen, including subject action.

Greenland, the world's largest island, is affluent successful untapped mineral resources. Although geographically positioned connected the North American continent, it is politically portion of Europe.

Acquiring the land would beryllium nary mean feat. Aside from governmental obstacles some astatine home and abroad, immoderate effort to instrumentality the territory by unit would pit the U.S. against its NATO allies.

In an interrogation with CNN earlier this week, apical Trump adjutant Stephen Miller suggested nary European state would beryllium prepared to enactment up a combat to support Greenland. Although not explicitly ruling retired the anticipation of U.S. subject enactment successful Greenland, helium argued that "there's nary request to adjacent deliberation oregon speech astir this successful the discourse of a subject cognition [because] nobody's going to combat the United States militarily implicit the aboriginal of Greenland," pointing to the island's tiny population.

For its part, Denmark and Greenland are taking speech of U.S. subject enactment seriously. In a connection connected Tuesday evening, Danish Defense Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said Denmark would walk 88 cardinal Danish kroner ($13.8 billion) rearming Greenland fixed "the superior information concern we find ourselves in."

Despite that evident willingness from Denmark to support Greenland, analysts told CNBC they bash not judge European forces would ever unfastened occurrence connected American troops.

Edward R. Arnold, a elder probe chap astatine British defence deliberation vessel Royal United Services Institute, told CNBC successful a telephone connected Tuesday that the White House does person the subject powerfulness to determination successful connected Greenland and, if it wanted to, could bash truthful "really rather quickly."

But Washington would not person to motorboat an cognition similar the 1 seen successful Venezuela implicit the weekend, according to Arnold, due to the fact that "it would beryllium wholly unopposed."

"What European subject commandant is going to unfastened unit connected a U.S. unit transport coming into Greenland?" helium said. "That would commencement an inter-NATO war, potentially. And the U.S. knows that."

The United States has, by far, the top subject spot of immoderate NATO member. In 2024, NATO estimated that the U.S. had 1.3 cardinal subject personnel, compared to the remainder of the alliance's corporate 2.1 cardinal personnel. The adjacent biggest subject unit belonged to Turkey, which had an estimated 481,000 radical moving successful its forces.

Arnold said helium expects that the U.S. volition gradually summation the fig of troops it has stationed successful Greenland, alternatively than ordering a full-blown subject cognition oregon invasion.

"They conscionable wouldn't occurrence connected them," helium said of NATO forces. "So you conscionable person this weird presumption whereby the U.S. are conscionable putting those troops into Greenland and the Europeans can't truly bash overmuch astir [it], but protestation politically."

Georgios Samaras, adjunct prof of nationalist argumentation astatine King's College London, agreed that Greenland and the wider NATO confederation would person constricted options to halt a determination from the U.S. to prehend much power of the island.

"I don't spot what NATO could bash to halt the U.S. — for starters, due to the fact that we're talking astir a superpower having truthful galore subject bases crossed the continent, which could beryllium utilized theoretically to invade a subordinate of NATO from wrong its ain ranks," helium told CNBC connected a call.

Not lone would NATO person to contend with turning against 1 of its ain members, it would person to see the broader information implications of splitting from the U.S., according to Jamie Shea, an subordinate chap successful Chatham House's International Security Program and a erstwhile subordinate of NATO's planetary staff.

"I would not spot a subject effect [from NATO] arsenic the U.S. would beryllium capable to woody rapidly with immoderate constricted forces the Europeans would beryllium capable to send, and it is highly improbable that European governments would see doing this," helium told CNBC. "They request each their forces for the defence of Europe and to lend to a European reassurance unit for Ukraine."

On Monday, Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen warned an American takeover of Greenland would spell the extremity of NATO. Of NATO's 32 members, 23 – including Denmark – are besides members of the European Union, which has been moving extensively to guarantee Trump's medication continues its support for Ukraine.

"They would privation to debar a nonstop clash with the U.S. which would spell the extremity of NATO and of U.S. enactment for Ukraine," Shea said.

King's College's Samaras agreed that immoderate escalation toward Greenland would destruct NATO.

"If a NATO subordinate threatens different subordinate of the alliance, it doesn't conscionable origin a row. It makes the alliance's communal defence committedness look conditional and political," helium said. "It would mean the extremity of NATO. I don't deliberation that NATO could continue."

Shea told CNBC that though European subject absorption is unlikely, NATO, done the European Union, does person ways of exerting unit connected Washington.

"Where Europe could workout leverage connected the U.S. is successful the economical tract if the EU adopts sanctions specified arsenic tariffs oregon limiting entree for U.S. companies and investments," Shea said.

"European governments could besides contradict the U.S. usage of European subject bases oregon facilities similar aboriginal informing radars. But these would evidently beryllium hard decisions for European governments to make, peculiarly astatine a clip erstwhile they person been moving truthful hard to prosecute Washington connected a Ukraine bid program and information guarantees."

Despite his ambition to get Greenland, driving a wedge betwixt the U.S. and its NATO allies, Trump insisted connected Wednesday that America stands by the confederation – adjacent arsenic helium lashed retired astatine the organization.

"Remember, for each of those large NATO fans, they were astatine 2% GDP, and astir weren't paying their bills, UNTIL I CAME ALONG," helium said successful a Truth Social post, referring to subordinate states' defence spending targets. Trump past suggested the confederation would beryllium incapable to ward disconnected modern information threats without the U.S. among its ranks.

"RUSSIA AND CHINA HAVE ZERO FEAR OF NATO WITHOUT THE UNITED STATES, AND I DOUBT NATO WOULD BE THERE FOR US IF WE REALLY NEEDED THEM," helium said. "We volition ever beryllium determination for NATO, adjacent if they won't beryllium determination for us."