Trump is seeking a quick US exit from Israel-Iran conflict. Will it work?

Washington, DC – United States President Donald Trump is attempting a high-risk manoeuvre successful bombing Iran and past rapidly seeking to de-escalate tensions, analysts told Al Jazeera.

But it remains to beryllium seen whether Washington tin navigate a cleanable exit from the deadly imbroglio, which has the imaginable to erupt into a large-scale determination confrontation.

Even if Trump avoids a wider war, analysts accidental troubling questions stay implicit however worthwhile the US subject involution was.

Early connected Sunday, the US joined Israel successful its subject run against Iran, sending B-2 stealth craft to driblet bombs connected 3 of the country’s atomic sites.

Trump has framed the subject enactment arsenic portion of Washington’s semipermanent extremity of preventing Tehran from gathering a atomic weapon. But the bombing provoked a retaliatory strike, with Iran launching missiles astatine the US’s Al Udeid Air Base successful Qatar connected Monday.

Since then, Trump has announced a ceasefire betwixt each parties and claimed helium was capable to “stop the war”. He credited the bombing with bringing “everyone together”.

But media outlets person questioned whether Trump was palmy successful destroying Iran’s atomic facilities, arsenic helium has claimed. And Trump has denounced some Iran and Israel for aboriginal violations of the ceasefire.

“As soon arsenic we made the deal, [Israel] came retired and dropped a load of bombs, the likes of which I’ve ne'er seen before,” Trump told reporters successful an unvarnished infinitesimal connected the White House tract connected Tuesday.

“We fundamentally person 2 countries that person been warring truthful agelong and truthful hard that they don’t cognize what the f*** they’re doing.”

Behind the rhetoric

Despite the rocky archetypal hours aft the ceasefire announcement, Israeli and Iranian leaders look to person fallen successful enactment with Trump’s messaging astir peace.

Following a telephone from the US president, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bureau said that his state would refrain from further attacks. Israel had “achieved each of the war’s goals”, his bureau said.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, meanwhile, hailed his country’s “heroic resistance”. He said Iran would respect the truce and question to support its interests done diplomacy.

But experts pass that the speech of bid and diplomacy mightiness conceal greater challenges ahead.

Trita Parsi, the enforcement vice president of the Quincy Institute, a deliberation tank, told Al Jazeera that Trump’s harsh words for the latest onslaught uncover his progressively nationalist frustrations with Israel, a longtime US ally.

They mightiness besides bespeak that extracting the US from Israel’s warfare with Iran mightiness beryllium much hard than it seems.

“I deliberation it’s important to recognize Israel does not privation an extremity to the fighting, and I deliberation Trump is starting to recognise however profoundly America and Israel’s interests successful each of this diverge,” Parsi told Al Jazeera.

Israeli officials person repeatedly signalled that their subject operations against Iran are aimed astatine prompting wider authorities change, a extremity Trump appeared to endorse past week but has since disavowed.

On Tuesday, the Israeli military’s main of staff, Eyal Zamir, issued a connection to the media confirming that Israel had “concluded a important chapter, but the run against Iran is not over”.

That viewpoint whitethorn diverge from Trump’s, according to Parsi. Nevertheless, Parsi believes Trump has shown much willingness to archer Israel “no” than galore of his statesmanlike predecessors.

“But Trump has not been capable to prolong that ‘no’ successful an effectual way,” Parsi added, pointing to the US president’s interventions successful Israel’s warfare connected Gaza.

“He pressured the Israelis into the ceasefire successful Gaza, but past helium relented and fto Netanyahu get retired of the ceasefire and ne'er spell to signifier 2 of that agreement. If helium wants to woody with Iran, he’s going to person to marque definite helium does not repetition that mistake.”

Still, Parsi noted that Trump has shown “a singular nimbleness” successful his quality to perpetrate – past retreat – US subject forces from overseas conflicts. Earlier this year, for instance, Trump entered into 45 days of aerial strikes against the Yemen-based Houthi equipped group, but by May, helium had unveiled a ceasefire.

Risk of a ‘quagmire’

For its part, Iran has been seen arsenic anxious to find an off-ramp to exit the conflict. Several analysts told Al Jazeera that Tehran would apt instrumentality pains to debar immoderate actions that could gully the US backmost into the fight.

The US and Iran had been successful talks to standard backmost Tehran’s atomic programme. But Israel’s archetypal astonishment onslaught connected June 13 had derailed the negotiations.

Negar Mortazavi, a non-resident chap astatine the nonprofit Center for International Policy, said that Iran inactive remains unfastened to returning to the negotiating table.

The state has agelong denied seeking a atomic limb and has alternatively framed its efforts arsenic aimed astatine processing civilian vigor infrastructure.

“Iran wants to person a civilian atomic programme,” Mortazavi told Al Jazeera. “And I think, if Trump accepts that, past there’s a precise beardown way and anticipation for a deal.”

Trump, however, has been vague astir what helium whitethorn accept. He described the US onslaught connected Sunday arsenic the demolition of “all Nuclear facilities & capability” successful Iran, successful a bid of statements that did not look to separate betwixt atomic enrichment for civilian vigor purposes oregon for weapons.

His statements were besides astatine likelihood with a classified study leaked to US media, indicating that Iran’s atomic programme was damaged but not obliterated – and could beryllium rebuilt successful a substance of months.

“IRAN WILL NEVER REBUILD THEIR NUCLEAR FACILITIES,” Trump wrote successful 1 of the messages connected Tuesday.

Still, Mortazavi believes Iran will likely person nary prime but to instrumentality to negotiations, adjacent if Trump again takes a maximalist presumption and opposes each uranium enrichment.

“They mightiness beryllium capable to conscionable determination fractional way,” Mortazavi said of the US and Iran. She added that 1 imaginable compromise would beryllium to have a “consortium” of determination countries that would show a civilian atomic programme.

“The alternative, which is subject struggle and war, is conscionable going to beryllium devastating for a batch much civilians”, she explained, “and could perchance crook into a quagmire similar Iraq oregon Afghanistan”.

Sina Azodi, an adjunct prof of Middle East authorities astatine George Washington University, pointed retired that Trump’s ceasefire announcement connected Monday could clasp clues astir his attack to immoderate renewed negotiations.

Trump started his connection by writing, “CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE!” Then, helium ended the missive with, “God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!”

Azodi said that the connection – which appeared to enactment Iran successful the aforesaid lasting arsenic Israel – was unprecedented from a US president since the Iranian Revolution of 1979. He noted that Trump appeared to beryllium mounting a “conciliatory” tone.

That sentiment was besides reflected connected the economical front. On Tuesday, Trump said that China could proceed to bargain lipid from Iran, contempt US sanctions that would different bounds specified trade.

That, too, was interpreted by galore analysts arsenic a goodwill offering to officials successful Tehran, arsenic Trump seeks a solution to the conflict.

“Trump wants to beryllium the 1 who utilized subject force, showed strength, and past rapidly brought an extremity to the conflict,” Azodi told Al Jazeera.

“He surely does not privation a broader struggle successful the region, due to the fact that past there’s a anticipation that helium would person to edifice to much subject intervention.”

Any further subject involvement, analysts say, could inflame tensions wrong Trump’s base, arsenic galore of his “America First” followers reason overseas subject action.

Some person speculated that Trump’s strike-and-exit attack allowed him to split the difference, satisfying the warfare hawks successful the Republican Party portion mollifying those who disagree with overseas intervention.

“But it’s intolerable to cognize what comes next, fixed his style,” Azodi said. “One day, he’s connected a bully side. One day, he’s belligerent and angry.”

Long-term success?

Whether Trump volition proceed his calls for bid aft Sunday’s onslaught remains unclear.

The US president has been connected the defensive, arsenic journalists proceed to question the effectiveness of the US strikes connected Iranian atomic facilities similar Fordow.

“That spot is nether rock. That spot is demolished,” Trump told journalists connected Tuesday.

He called connected quality outlets to apologise for casting uncertainty connected the occurrence of the mission. “It’s each fake news,” helium said. “Those pilots deed their targets. Those targets were obliterated.”

Azodi noted that the US strikes look to beryllium little palmy than the Trump medication has claimed. Evidence has surfaced that Iran relocated overmuch of its uranium stockpile successful the lead-up to the attack.

What is clear, Azodi said, is that the US violated planetary instrumentality successful striking a installation nether the safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

That could pb Iran to marque bully connected its menace to retreat from the Treaty connected the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), freeing it from planetary obligations that would bounds immoderate weapons development.

“In the abbreviated term, yes, Trump tin travel and brag astir [the US strikes] connected Truth Social, saying that helium ‘obliterated’ the Iranian atomic programme,” Azodi said.

“But successful the agelong term, you can’t weaponry the knowledge. Iran’s fissile worldly appears to person survived. And present Iranians person a batch of motive for withdrawing from the NPT.”

That, helium warned, would mean that “it would beryllium intolerable to show their atomic programme”.