Trump keeps threatening to punish Putin. Here's what's holding him back

U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly said helium volition punish Russia and President Vladimir Putin if Moscow doesn't travel to the array and hold to bid talks oregon a ceasefire with Ukraine.

Russia has shown nary signs of intending to bash either, alternatively continuing and expanding its attacks connected Ukraine arsenic it looks to consolidate gains connected the battlefield.

And still, Trump is holding disconnected connected releasing a large bazooka of other sanctions and economical punishment that could wounded an already weakened Russia.

The crushed for the standstill is strategical and goes beyond Russia, according to analysts, who pass the longer Trump holds off, the much he's undermining his and the U.S.' position.

"The Russian fund is really nether a batch of pressure... truthful if determination were to beryllium immoderate much important sanctions targeting Russian lipid commercialized from the U.S. — which they've talked astir but not done — that would enactment the fund nether greater pressure. It hasn't happened," Chris Weafer, the main enforcement of Moscow-based Macro-Advisory, told CNBC Monday.

There were 2 important factors down Trump's reticence, Weafer said: the president's tendency to beryllium seen arsenic a peace-broker, and concerns implicit pushing Russia deeper into China's orbit.

"Trump inactive thinks helium tin bring some sides to the table, that helium could broker a bid deal, and that helium tin instrumentality recognition for moving the struggle towards peace. And bearing successful caput that the announcement connected the Nobel Peace Prize volition travel successful aboriginal October, it's a factor, due to the fact that we cognize the quality of the of the individual," helium told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe."

"The 2nd crushed ... is determination is simply a consciousness that if Russia is defeated, if Russia is wholly isolated by the West, and there's nary mode backmost successful presumption of engaging with the U.S. and Europe, past it has nary prime but to spell adjacent further all-in with China, and that perchance past would fortify China's position."

Bringing Russia and Beijing person unneurotic would mean that the second had "almost unlimited" entree to vigor resources, concern materials and to the Arctic, the expert said, noting that this could efficaciously artifact the U.S. from Russian-controlled parts of the Arctic.

It would besides let China greater entree to Russian subject technology, specified arsenic stealth submarines, and further opportunities successful abstraction exploration.

Officials successful Washington were acrophobic astir that, Weafer noted, adding, "they don't privation Russia to beryllium fundamentally a much ceremonial subsidiary of China. They privation it to beryllium much successful the mediate with engagement successful the West. I deliberation that's 1 crushed wherefore they're treading cautiously for now."

CNBC has contacted the White House for further remark connected its strategy toward Moscow and is awaiting a response.

Beijing and Moscow's leaders were seen to beryllium putting connected a show of bonhomie astatine the 25th Shanghai Cooperation Organization acme connected Monday. The SCO is being attended by 20 overseas leaders, including Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Against a backdrop of warfare successful Ukraine, Trump's tariffs and continuing lipid trade, the large economies of China, Russia and India person deepened their economical and governmental ties portion their respective relations with the West person frayed.

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday urged his chap leaders attending the acme to fortify their cooperation, and called connected them to cull what helium called a "Cold War mentality."

Meanwhile, Putin told the SCO that his gathering with Trump successful August had opened a way to uncovering a mode to resolving the Ukrainian "crisis," arsenic helium described the much than three-year war. Yet helium thanked Russia's Asian allies for their enactment passim the war.

"We worth the efforts and propositions to lick the Ukrainian situation of China, India and different strategical partners of ours. The communal knowing that was reached astatine a caller Russia-U.S. acme successful Alaska heads the aforesaid direction, I hope. It paves the mode to bid successful Ukraine, I hope."

Summits similar the SCO were creating a caller governmental and socio-economic ecosystem that could regenerate the "outdated" Euro-Atlantic-centered powerfulness model, Putin said.

This caller strategy "would instrumentality into relationship the interests of a maximum fig of countries and would beryllium genuinely balanced," meaning "a strategy successful which 1 radical of countries would not guarantee its information astatine the disbursal of the others."