Trump's 100% chip tariff threat leaves more questions than answers

After months of speculation, U.S. President Donald Trump has divulged much of his semiconductor tariff plans, but his latest threats mightiness make much questions than answers. 

On Wednesday, Trump said helium volition enforce a 100% tariff connected imports of semiconductors and chips, but not for companies that are "building successful the United States."

As semiconductors correspond an over $600 cardinal industry astatine the bosom of the modern integer economy, immoderate imaginable tariffs clasp monolithic weight. 

However, experts accidental the President has yet to supply cardinal details connected the policy, which volition yet find their afloat interaction and targets. 

"It's inactive excessively aboriginal to pin down the interaction of the tariffs connected the semiconductor sector,"  Ray Wang, probe manager of semiconductors, proviso concatenation and emerging exertion astatine The Futurum Group, told CNBC. 

"The last regularisation is apt inactive being drafted and the method details are acold from wide astatine this point." 

One of the biggest questions for spot players and investors volition beryllium however overmuch manufacturing a institution needs to perpetrate to the U.S. to suffice for the tariff exemption. 

The U.S. has been moving to onshore its semiconductor proviso concatenation for galore years now. Since 2020, the world's largest semiconductor companies specified arsenic TSMC and Samsung person committed hundreds of billions of dollars to gathering plants successful the U.S.

Speaking to CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" connected Thursday, James Sullivan, Managing Director and Head of Asia Pacific Equity Research astatine J.P. Morgan, said this could mean astir large spot manufacturers receiving exemptions.

If this is the case, the argumentation could person the effect of "continuing to consolidate marketplace stock amongst the largest headdress players successful the space," Sullivan said. 

Indeed, shares of Asian spot majors TSMC and Samsung, which person important investments successful the U.S., roseate successful Thursday greeting trading pursuing Trump's announcement. Early this year, TSMC announced it would grow its investments successful the U.S. to $165 billion. 

Shares South Korea's Samsung and SK Hynix — which person besides invested successful the U.S. — were besides trading up aft a Korean commercialized envoy reportedly said connected vigor that the duo would beryllium exempt from the 100% tariffs.

Beyond the question of exemptions, galore different aspects of the imaginable tariffs stay unclear. 

Speaking connected CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia," connected Thursday, Stacy Rasgon, elder U.S. semiconductor expert at  Bernstein, noted that astir of the semiconductors that participate the U.S. travel wrong user goods specified arsenic smartphones, PCs and cars.

For example, successful 2024, the U.S. imported $46.3 cardinal of semiconductors — lone astir 1% of each U.S. imports, according to the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation.

While Rasgon said tariffs connected these imports whitethorn beryllium manageable, broader tariffs would beryllium harder to woody with. 

"What we don't cognize with [Trump's] comments connected tariffs, is it conscionable earthy semiconductors? Are determination going to beryllium tariffs connected extremity devices? Are you going to beryllium looking astatine tariffs connected components wrong extremity devices?," Rasgon asked. 

On April 1, the U.S. Department of Commerce launched a national information investigation into semiconductor imports. A time later, the assemblage was exempted from Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs.

The vague connection from the Trump medication — though not invoked successful the president's latest proclamations — could theoretically beryllium utilized to use wide tariffs to an tremendous conception of the electronics proviso chain. It's besides unclear connected the grade that semiconductor materials and manufacturing instrumentality utilized to manufacture chips would autumn nether the tariffs. 

Potential tariff strategies could besides beryllium analyzable by the intricate and interdependent quality of the semiconductor proviso chain. 

Rasgon gave the illustration of American spot decorator Qualcomm, which sends their designs to TSMC to beryllium manufactured successful Taiwan and past imported to the U.S. 

"Does that mean those [chip imports] would not beryllium tariffed, due to the fact that they're made astatine TSMC, and TSMC is gathering successful the U.S.?... I don't know. Hopefully that's however it would be," helium said. 

Another ample purchaser of semiconductors successful the U.S. are unreality work providers similar Amazon Web Services and Google, which are indispensable to powerfulness Washington's AI plans. 

According to a caller report from ITIF, semiconductors lend $7 trillion successful planetary economical enactment annually by underpinning a scope of downstream applications including AI and "big data."

In a imaginable motion of American companies seeking to determination their spot proviso chains into the U.S., Apple CEO Tim Cook, alongside Trump astatine the White location Wednesday, announced that it volition beryllium supplied chips from Samsung's accumulation works successful Texas. 

The institution besides announced an further $100 cardinal successful U.S. investments, raising its full concern commitments successful the state to $600 cardinal implicit the adjacent 4 years.