Trump’s tariff gambit over Iran risks derailing U.S.–China trade deal

President Donald Trump's menace of 25% tariffs connected countries doing concern with Iran has raised the hazard of derailing Washington's fragile commercialized woody with Beijing — Tehran's largest trading partner.

Trump said Monday nighttime stateside that the U.S. volition commencement charging a 25% tariff connected imports from countries that bash concern with Iran. The bid is "effective immediately," helium said successful a Truth Social post.

The world's apical 2 economies had secured an interim commercialized woody successful precocious October that saw a rotation backmost of punitive U.S. tariffs connected China, portion Beijing paused its sweeping uncommon world export controls.

In effect to Trump's tariff menace China said it "firmly opposes immoderate illicit unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction," portion informing that it would instrumentality "all indispensable measures" to support its interests, according to a post connected X by a spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy successful the U.S.

If Trump is superior astir the 25% rate, "that is simply a monolithic escalation from existent tariff levels," said Deborah Elms, caput of commercialized argumentation astatine the Hinrich Foundation.

She warned the concern could easy spiral into caller rounds of tit-for-tat escalation, not to notation dashing immoderate hopes of U.S. soybean exports to China. "The past clip we played this game, we ended up with tariff levels astatine 145%."  

As the world's largest importer of oil, Beijing has agelong bought crude from Iran — and different countries sanctioned by the U.S. — offering a important economical lifeline to the Middle Eastern authorities reeling from Western curbs.

Iranian crude lipid shipments to China much than doubled betwixt 2017 and 2024 connected a per-day ground to implicit 1.2 cardinal barrels, according to estimates by Muyu Xu, elder expert astatine commodity quality steadfast Kpler.

As of 2022, substance accounted for more than fractional of China's imports from Iran, according to World Bank's latest data.

However, China has since stepped backmost its commercialized amid tighter U.S. sanctions. Imports from Iran were connected way for a fourth-straight twelvemonth of diminution successful 2025, falling 28% successful the January to November play from a twelvemonth earlier, according to authoritative information compiled by Wind Information. China is expected to merchandise full-year commercialized information connected Wednesday.

Beijing volition not trim its economical practice with Iran owed to Trump's tariff threat, Cui Shoujun, an planetary studies prof astatine Renmin University of China, told reporters Tuesday morning.

"The Iran concern has surely entered a precise unsafe period. We should each wage person attention," Cui said successful Mandarin, translated by CNBC. He attributed Trump's involvement successful Iran to vigor resources — much lipid accumulation than Venezuela, conscionable erstwhile U.S. energy request is surging successful bid to powerfulness AI.

While Cui declined to straight code the implications for U.S.-China relations, helium said that in-person meetings are an important indicator.

After Trump met Chinese President Xi Jinping successful South Korea past fall, the 2 sides agreed to a 1-year commercialized truce. Tariffs connected Chinese exports to the U.S. were acceptable to stay astir 47.5%, down from a precocious of much than 100% during the highest of commercialized tensions successful the spring.

The U.S. president is expected to sojourn Beijing successful April, followed by a reciprocal sojourn by Xi aboriginal successful the year.

"Trump is eroding the bladed spot physique astir [the] commercialized truce," said Dan Wang, China manager astatine Eurasia Group. "Trump was already wide viewed by Chinese nationalist and authorities arsenic inconsistent." 

The U.S. and China person had a past of piling connected unit to physique leverage up of large diplomatic meetings. Tensions had escalated sharply up of the Trump-Xi gathering successful October, with Beijing expanding export controls connected uncommon earths and launching anti-trust probes into U.S. spot shaper Qualcomm, portion Washington reportedly planned to curb chip-design software to China.

"There volition apt beryllium respective rounds of akin tit-for-tat, starring up to April meeting," said Wang.  

Wang said China could respond with sanctions connected U.S. firms tied to Taiwan arms sales, oregon antitrust probes of American tech firms operating successful China, portion ruling retired further uncommon earths restrictions.

It remains to beryllium seen to what grade the tariffs materialize. The U.S. Supreme Court could marque a ruling Wednesday connected the legality of Trump's usage of duties.

The menace of tariffs connected Iran's trading partners appeared to beryllium driven by Trump's "ever shifting absorption of attention, not arsenic portion of an intentional strategy to summation caller leverage implicit China successful beforehand of the apt April summit," said Scott Kennedy, a elder advisor astatine the Center for Strategic and International Studies.  

Still, "China volition not hesitate to retaliate successful a mode that imposes superior costs connected the U.S. [and it] has prepared for a assortment of scenarios, including this one," Kennedy added.