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The White House has launched an assertive nationalist relations run promoting a communicative of economical spot during the archetypal six months of United States President Donald Trump, with claims of his policies fueling “America’s aureate age”.
But an Al Jazeera investigation of economical information shows the world is much mixed.
Trump’s claims of his policies boosting the US system suffered a stroke connected Friday erstwhile the latest jobs study revealed that the state had added a specified 73,000 jobs past month, good beneath the 115,000 forecasters had expected. The lone additions were successful the healthcare sector, which added 55,000 jobs, and the societal services assemblage added 18,000.
US employers besides chopped 62,075 jobs successful July — up 29 percent from cuts successful the period before, and 140 percent higher than this clip past year, according to the steadfast Challenger, Gray and Christmas, which tracks monthly occupation cuts. Government, tech, and retail sectors are the industries that saw the biggest declines truthful acold this year.
It comes arsenic this month’s jobs and labour turnover study showed an economical slowdown. There were 7.4 cardinal unfastened jobs successful the US, down from 7.7 cardinal a period before.
The Department of Labour connected Friday released downward revisions to some the May and June jobs reports, importantly changing the representation the White House had antecedently painted.
“For the FOURTH period successful a row, jobs numbers person bushed marketplace expectations with astir 150,000 bully jobs created successful June,” the White House said successful a July 3 merchandise pursuing the archetypal June report.
The Labor Department had reported an summation of 147,000 jobs successful June. On Friday, it sharply revised down that fig to conscionable 14,000. May’s study besides saw a large downgrade from 144,000 to lone 19,000 jobs gained. Trump has since fired the caput of the bureau that produces the monthly jobs data, alleging that the information had been manipulated to marque him look bad.
Even earlier the revisions, June’s study was the archetypal to bespeak aboriginal signs of economical strain tied to the administration’s tariff threats, arsenic it revealed that occupation maturation was concentrated successful areas specified arsenic authorities and section authorities and healthcare. Sectors much exposed to commercialized argumentation – including construction, wholesale trade, and manufacturing – were flat. Meanwhile, leisure and hospitality showed anemic growth, adjacent successful highest summer, reflecting falling question request some astatine location and abroad.
The medication besides claimed that native-born workers accounted for each occupation gains since January. That assertion is misleading arsenic it implies that nary naturalised citizens oregon legally contiguous overseas workers gained employment.
However, it is existent that employment among foreign-born workers has declined – by implicit fractional a cardinal jobs – claims that native-born workers are replacing foreign-born labour, are not supported by the jobs data.
Jobs mislaid successful sectors with precocious foreign-born employment, including tech, person been abundant, driven by tariffs and automation, peculiarly AI. In fact, caller layoffs successful tech person been explicitly attributed to AI advancements, not labour displacement by different groups.
Companies including Recruit Holdings — the genitor institution of Indeed and Glassdoor, Axel Springer, IBM, Duolingo and others person already made headcount reductions straight attributed to AI advancements.
Wage growth
The gait of emergence of wage growth, an indicator of economical success, has slowed successful caller months. That is partially owed to the Federal Reserve keeping involvement rates dependable successful hopes of keeping ostentation stable.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, wages person been outpacing ostentation since 2023, aft a play of declining existent wages pursuing the COVID pandemic.
Wage maturation ticked up by 0.3 percent successful July from a period prior. Compared with this clip past year, wage maturation is 3.9 percent, according to Friday’s Labor Department jobs report.
Earlier this year, the White House painted a representation that wage maturation differed betwixt the epoch of erstwhile President Joe Biden and present nether Trump due to the fact that of policy.
“Blue-collar workers person seen existent wages turn astir 2 percent successful the archetypal 5 months of President Trump’s 2nd word — a stark opposition from the antagonistic wage maturation seen during the archetypal 5 months of the Biden Administration,” the White House said successful a release.
However, Biden and Trump inherited 2 precise antithetic economies erstwhile they took office. Biden has to woody with a monolithic planetary economical downturn driven by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Trump, connected the different hand, during his 2nd term, inherited “unquestionably the strongest economy” successful much than 2 decades, per the Economic Policy Institute, peculiarly due to the fact that of the US economy’s rebound compared with adjacent nations.
Inflation
Inflation peaked successful mid-2022 during Biden’s word astatine 9 percent, earlier falling steadily due to the fact that of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to negociate a brushed landing.
A July 21 White House connection claimed, “Since President Trump took office, halfway ostentation has tracked astatine conscionable 2.1 percent.” On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessett said “inflation is cooling” successful a station connected X.
However, the Consumer Price Index report, which tracks halfway ostentation – a measurement that excludes the terms of volatile items specified arsenic nutrient and vigor – was 2.9 percent successful the astir caller study and wide ostentation was astatine 2.7 percent successful June.
Prices
The astir caller Consumer Price Index report, published July 15, shows that connected a monthly basis, prices connected each goods went up successful June by 0.3 ,percent which is 2.7 percent higher from this clip past year.
Grocery prices successful peculiar are up 2.4 percent from this clip past twelvemonth and 0.3 percent from the anterior month. The outgo of fruits and vegetables went up 0.9 percent, the terms of java accrued by 2.2 percent and the outgo of beef went up 2 percent.
New pending tariffs connected Brazil, arsenic Al Jazeera antecedently reported, could further thrust up the outgo of beef successful the months to come.
Trump has pointed to falling ovum prices successful peculiar arsenic grounds of economical success, aft Democrats attacked his medication implicit their terms successful March. He has adjacent gone truthful acold arsenic to assertion that prices are down by 400 percent. That fig is mathematically intolerable – a 100 percent alteration would mean eggs are free.
During the archetypal fewer months of Trump’s word egg prices surged, and past dropped owed to an outbreak of, and past betterment from, a terrible avian flue outbreak, which had been hindering proviso – not due to the fact that of immoderate circumstantial argumentation intervention.
In January, erstwhile Trump took bureau ovum prices were $4.95 per twelve arsenic proviso was constrained by the virus. By March, the mean ovum terms was $6.23. But outbreak and precocious prices drove distant consumers, allowing farmers with healthier flocks to drawback up connected the proviso side. As a result, prices fell to an mean of $3.38. That would beryllium a 32 percent driblet since the opening of his word and a 46 percent driblet from their highest terms – acold from the 400 percent Trump claimed.
Trump besides precocious said petrol prices are astatine $1.98 per gallon ($0.52 per litre) successful immoderate states. He doubled down connected that again connected Wednesday. That is untrue. There is not a azygous authorities that has those petrol prices.
According to Gasbuddy, a level that helps consumers find the lowest prices connected petrol, Mississippi astatine $2.70 a gallon ($0.71 per litre) has the cheapest gas, and the cheapest petrol presumption successful that authorities is presently selling state astatine $2.37 ($0.62 per litre).
AAA, which tracks the mean petrol price, has it astatine $3.15 per gallon ($0.83 per litre) nationwide, this is up from the extremity of January erstwhile it was $3.11 ($0.82 per litre).
While petrol prices person gone down since Trump took office, they are obscurity adjacent to the complaint helium has continually suggested. In July 2024, for instance, the mean terms for a gallon of petrol nationwide was $3.50 ($0.93 per litre).
GDP
On Wednesday, the White House said that “President Trump has reduced America’s reliance connected overseas products, boosted concern successful the US”, citing the affirmative GDP information that had travel retired that morning.
That is misleading. While the US system grew astatine a 3 percent annualised complaint successful the 2nd quarter, surpassing expectations, that was a operation of a rebound aft a anemic archetypal quarter, a driblet successful imports – which boosted GDP, and a humble emergence successful user spending.
The information beneath the header showed that backstage assemblage concern fell sharply by 15.6 percent and inventories of goods and services declined by 3.2 percent, indicating a slowdown.
Manufacturing
The medication precocious highlighted gains successful concern production, pointing to a boost successful home manufacturing. Overall, determination was a 0.3 percent summation successful US concern accumulation successful June. That was aft stagnating for 2 months.
There person been isolated gains, specified arsenic increases successful aerospace and petroleum-related sectors—1.6 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively.
But accumulation of durable goods — items that are not needfully for contiguous consumption— remained flat, and car manufacturing fell by 2.6 percent past period arsenic tariffs dampened demand. Mining output besides decreased by 0.3 percent.
According to the Department of Commerce’s gross home merchandise report, manufacturing maturation among non-durable goods has slowed. While determination was a 1.3 percent increase, that’s a diminution from 2.3 percent successful the erstwhile quarter.
This could alteration successful the future, arsenic respective companies crossed a scope of sectors person pledged to summation US production, including carmaker Hyundai and pharmaceutical elephantine AstraZeneca, which conscionable pledged a $50bn concern implicit the adjacent 5 years.
Trade deals and tariffs
In April, the White House replaced country-specific tariffs with a 10-percent broad tariff portion maintaining further levies connected steel, cars, and immoderate different items. It past promised to present “90 commercialized deals successful 90 days.” That benchmark was not met. By the deadline, lone 1 loosely fleshed retired woody — with the United Kingdom — had been announced. As of 113 days later, the US has announced comparable deals with conscionable a fistful much countries and the European Union. The EU woody inactive needs parliamentary approval.
Contrary to the administration’s claims, tariffs bash not unit overseas exporters — they are paid by US importers and yet are apt to beryllium passed connected to US consumers. Companies, including large container retailer Walmart and toymaker Mattel, person announced terms hikes arsenic a nonstop result. Ford, for example, raised prices connected 3 Mexico-assembled models owed to tariff pressures.
To support their ain economies, galore countries person pivoted their commercialized policies distant from the US. Brazil and Mexico precocious announced a caller commercialized pact.
The White House and its allies proceed to support tariffs by highlighting the accrued gross they bring to the national government, which is true. Since Trump took office, the US has brought successful much than $100bn successful revenue, compared with $77bn successful the full fiscal twelvemonth 2024. The terms of imports for consumers has lone risen astir 3 percent, but galore expect that volition alteration arsenic the import taxes are passed on to consumers.
The White House did not respond to Al Jazeera’s petition for comment.
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