Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi beryllium successful a car during a welcoming ceremonial astatine the Palam Air Base successful New Delhi, India December 4, 2025.
Grigory Sysoev | Via Reuters
A time aft President Donald Trump said India agreed to halt purchases of Russian lipid arsenic portion of a caller U.S.-India commercialized deal, the Kremlin said it has heard thing from New Delhi to suggest those flows are stopping.
"We haven't heard immoderate statements from Delhi on this substance yet," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said, successful comments reported by quality bureau RIA Novosti.
"We respect bilateral U.S,-Indian relations," Peskov told reporters. "But we connect nary little value to the improvement of an precocious strategical concern betwixt Russia and India."
"This is the astir important happening for us, and we mean to further make our bilateral relations with Delhi," helium said.
Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, a erstwhile lipid minister, downplayed immoderate imaginable nonaccomplishment of Indian custom, telling reporters Tuesday: "We're lone seeing nationalist statements. We'll spot however the concern develops."
"But overall, our vigor assets is successful demand; we spot this often. Supply volition ever find demand, due to the fact that the equilibrium is maintained," helium said successful comments reported by TASS.
Skepticism rife
Trump announced that a commercialized woody had been reached with India successful a station connected Truth Social on Monday, saying an statement had been reached during a telephone with Modi.
"We spoke astir galore things, including Trade, and ending the War with Russia and Ukraine," Trump said, adding: "He agreed to halt buying Russian Oil, and to bargain overmuch much from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela."
Trump said the U.S. would chopped the main tariff connected India from 25% to 18%, and would region an further 25% punishment tariff it had imposed connected New Delhi past summertime successful retaliation for its Russian lipid purchases.
Modi confirmed the latest woody with the U.S. had been done, posting connected X Monday that helium was "delighted that Made successful India products volition present person a reduced tariff of 18%."
India is surely seen to person curbed its Russian lipid purchases arsenic a effect of Washington's punitive 25% duty, but analysts are skeptical that the country, which became a apical purchaser of discounted Russian crude pursuing the commencement of the Ukraine warfare successful 2022, is astir to wholly extremity these purchases fixed its request for inexpensive oil, a tendency to its overseas argumentation autonomy, and to support adjacent geopolitical and defence ties with Russia.
"I person a hard clip believing the authorities of India volition marque immoderate Russian oil-related committedness explicit," Evan A. Feigenbaum, vice president for studies astatine the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said in analysis Tuesday.
"After all, India has heavy humanities and sentimental ties to Russia that it volition not simply ditch nether American pressure," helium noted, adding: "Maintaining the symbolic hedge that it tin acquisition Russian lipid if it truthful chooses speaks some to Indian overseas argumentation autonomy and to its quality to defy American coercion, some of which are important factors successful India's home politics."
Feigenbaum noted that portion determination were signs suggesting that New Delhi had already been incrementally reducing its imports of Russian crude, publically rebuking Russia was ever a "nonstarter" for Modi who, helium said, "can sick spend to humiliate 1 of India's astir important defence partners."
Balancing act
Farwa Aamer, manager of South Asia Initiatives astatine the Asia Society Policy Institute, agreed that New Delhi would beryllium reluctant to dump a trading spouse with whom it has deepened relations successful caller years. Still, India would besides beryllium keen to not scupper its rapprochement with the States aft months of commercialized tensions.
"For India, the Russia question remains," helium said successful emailed comments Tuesday.
"Even though it has and volition alteration its lipid import operation distant from Russia, India would inactive privation to support relations steady. It volition beryllium a balancing enactment for definite arsenic India navigates these 2 important relationships simultaneously," helium added.
A retention vessel astatine an lipid refinery operated by Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd., successful Mumbai, India, connected Friday, April 4, 2025.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Moodys Ratings bureau said India was improbable to crook distant from Russian lipid completely, fixed the imaginable economical interaction of doing so, including accrued manufacturing costs and higher user prices.
"Even though India has reduced its acquisition of crude lipid from Russia successful caller months, it is improbable to cease each purchases instantly which could beryllium disruptive to India's economical growth," Moody's Ratings bureau commented Tuesday.
"A implicit displacement toward non-Russian lipid could besides tighten proviso elsewhere, rise prices and walk done to higher ostentation fixed that India is 1 of the world's largest lipid importers."
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