Trump says the war is over, but the path to peace in the Middle East is fragile

U.S. President Donald Trump was successful a bullish temper arsenic helium and different planetary leaders successful Egypt signed connected Monday the archetypal signifier of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, seen arsenic a precursor to a imaginable bid woody betwixt Hamas and Israel.

"This took 3,000 years to get to this point, tin you judge it? And it's going to clasp up too," Trump said confidently arsenic helium signed the woody successful beforehand of the world's media.

"We've achieved what everybody said was intolerable — astatine agelong last, we person bid successful the Middle East," Trump said aboriginal during a quality conference, flanked by different leaders. "Nobody thought we could ever get there, and present we're there," helium added.

While astir hold that Trump deserves credit for helping to bring an contiguous extremity to the devastating warfare betwixt Israel and Hamas — which saw the instrumentality of Israeli hostages aft 2 years successful captivity and merchandise of astir 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees — achieving a long-lasting bid is simply a antithetic matter.

"At the end of the day, getting to a ceasefire was very, precise important. It was important not conscionable for Gaza and Israel, but for the full portion which has been consumed by this conflict. But it's besides the casual part," Rob Geist Pinfold, lecturer successful International Security, astatine King's College London, told CNBC Tuesday.

"Both sides person shown immoderate tendency to travel to the array and speech and scope immoderate benignant of a deal, but the existent differences are connected what comes 'the time after'," Geist Pinfold noted.

Analysts enactment that item is scant successful Trump's 20-point bid plan, meaning determination are a fig of grey areas and country for discontent and disagreement successful the adjacent and long-term.

This is peculiarly salient erstwhile it comes to some contiguous matters successful the bid proposal, specified arsenic the demilitarization of Hamas and withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gazan territory it presently controls, to possibly the biggest bony of contention: a two-state solution for the Israelis and Palestinians.

Trump refused to beryllium drawn connected the substance arsenic helium travelled to Israel connected Monday, telling reporters connected Air Force One: "I'm not talking astir a azygous authorities oregon treble authorities oregon 2 state," earlier adding: "A batch of radical similar the one-state solution, immoderate radical similar the two-state solution. We'll person to see." 

While some sides had said "yes" to the ceasefire woody — with small different enactment fixed increasing planetary unit and disquiet from Trump and determination partners successful the Middle East, arsenic good arsenic the weakening of Iran, Hamas' backer — some sides volition beryllium looking for the different to interruption and scupper the deal, experts say.

"Israel's request that Hamas beryllium demilitarized, that its leaders spell into exile ... would fundamentally mean that Hamas would be, if they agreed to it, committing organization suicide," Geist Pinfold said.

"On the different broadside an Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip is thing that [Prime Minister] Benjamin Netanyahu has resisted from time one," helium said, adding: "So the stakes are very, precise precocious here."

The bid program envisages the instauration of a "board of peace," to beryllium chaired by Trump, to oversee the instauration of a transitional authorization to administer Gaza and supervise its reconstruction. How this volition enactment successful signifier is besides ambiguous, arsenic good arsenic who volition support the peace.

"When it comes to the peacekeepers, we don't cognize however galore determination volition be, what countries they volition beryllium from erstwhile they would beryllium deployed, oregon what their mandate volition be. All these questions person been kicked down the road," Geist Pinfold said.

Uriel Abulof, a visiting prof successful Cornell University's authorities section and prof of authorities astatine Tel-Aviv University, agreed that the woody signed astatine the bid acme successful Egypt connected Monday was not needfully a "peace deal."

"It's a endurance pact for leaders who thrive connected conflict. For 2 years, Netanyahu and Hamas person utilized this warfare to solidify their power, continuing a long-standing dynamic wherever each side's extremism justifies the other's," Abulof said successful emailed comments.

"This agreement, forced upon them by outer patrons similar the U.S. and Qatar, is deliberately vague connected halfway issues, allowing some to assertion a win," helium added.

Abulof said some sides shared an "unspoken goal" successful looking to artifact a viable Palestinian Authority from governing Gaza. "Consequently, lasting bid isn't connected the table," helium said.

"The lone way guardant is done civic renewal, wherever Israelis and Palestinians regenerate leaders who spot perpetual warfare arsenic indispensable for staying successful power," helium said.

Hamas' onslaught connected Israel connected Oct. 7 2023 saw the violent radical termination 1,200 radical and instrumentality hundreds hostage. Israel's effect and the ensuing warfare near much than 67,000 Palestinians dead, including thousands of civilians, according to Gaza's Health Ministry. In the process, Gaza itself has been mostly destroyed with astir buildings successful ruins.

That symptom and those losses volition not beryllium forgotten, fto unsocial forgiven, overnight. At the aforesaid time, each bid processes person to commencement somewhere.

Thomas Schwartz, distinguished prof of History and Political Science astatine Vanderbilt University, said there's country for cautious optimism.

"I bash spot immoderate beardown parallels to past breakthroughs successful the Middle East, particularly Kissinger's shuttle diplomacy and Jimmy Carter's Camp David agreements," helium noted successful emailed comments Monday. 

"That should besides thatch a spot of caution – successful the Middle East, it's often 2 steps forward, and past 1 measurement backward. It volition beryllium a agelong roadworthy to real peace in the region, but I americium genuinely optimistic."