Trump-Xi meeting: What’s at stake and who has the upper hand?

United States President Donald Trump expects “a batch of problems” volition beryllium solved betwixt Washington and Beijing erstwhile helium meets China’s President Xi Jinping successful South Korea for a high-stakes gathering connected Thursday, amid increasing commercialized tensions betwixt the two.

Relations betwixt the 2 satellite powers person been strained successful caller years, with Washington and Beijing imposing tit-for-tat commercialized tariffs topping 100 percent against each different this year, the US restricting its exports of semiconductors captious for artificial quality (AI) improvement and Beijing restricting exports of captious rare-earth metals which are captious for the defence manufacture and besides the improvement of AI, among different issues.

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Officials from Washington and Beijing person been locked successful commercialized talks since August to de-escalate commercialized tensions, and they besides came up with a model for a commercialized woody during meetings successful Malaysia implicit the weekend.

On the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) acme successful Gyeongju, South Korea, connected Wednesday, Trump said an expected commercialized woody betwixt China and the US would beryllium good for some countries and “something precise breathtaking for everybody”.

But lone a gathering betwixt Trump and Xi tin corroborate if a commercialized woody is truly successful the making. According to analysts, expectations of the 2 satellite powers’ quality to reset their narration and hold to immoderate woody astatine this gathering are low.

When are the 2 leaders meeting?

Trump is scheduled to conscionable Xi connected Thursday successful the larboard metropolis of Busan successful southeastern South Korea. The gathering is expected to commencement astatine 10am section clip (01:00 GMT).

It volition beryllium the archetypal clip the leaders person met successful idiosyncratic since Trump returned to the White House successful January. The US president past met Xi successful 2019, during Trump’s archetypal term, connected the sidelines of the Group of 20 (G20) acme successful Osaka, Japan.

“I deliberation we’re going to person a large gathering with President Xi of China, and a batch of problems are going to beryllium solved,” Trump told journalists connected Wednesday connected Air Force One portion en way to South Korea.

On Wednesday, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed the gathering betwixt Xi and Trump successful a statement and said the leaders “will speech views connected bilateral relations and issues of communal interest”.

What volition Trump and Xi speech about?

Discussions are apt to cover:

• Trade tariffs
• Trafficking of fentanyl, a cause liable for tens of thousands of deaths successful the US each year
• China’s export controls connected captious rare-earth metals and its acquisition of US soya beans
• US export controls connected semiconductors
• Geopolitical and information issues, peculiarly Russia’s warfare successful Ukraine and Washington’s presumption connected Taiwan
• Port fees connected Chinese ships docking successful US ports
• Finalising a deal to bargain TikTok, the societal media platform, from its Chinese owners

Alejandro Reyes, adjunct prof astatine the Department of Politics and Public Administration astatine the University of Hong Kong, told Al Jazeera that astatine this meeting, some sides volition privation to dependable an uneasy rivalry – but for antithetic reasons.

“For Washington, the extremity is to amusement that its pugnacious enactment connected China has delivered results. The Trump squad is walking into this acme aft signing commercialized pacts with Malaysia, Cambodia and Japan that nexus marketplace entree straight to nationalist information cooperation. These deals necessitate America’s partners to align with US export controls and supply-chain rules – fundamentally making ‘economic security’ a shared obligation,” helium said.

“For Beijing, the precedence is to task calm and endurance. The gathering comes conscionable aft the 4th plenum, which reaffirmed Chinese person Xi Jinping’s authorization and acceptable the absorption for the adjacent five-year plan. China’s connection is that it has weathered Western unit and is backmost to focusing connected maturation and home stability,” helium added.

But discussions connected disputes implicit commercialized tariffs, critical rare-earth metals, AI exertion and geopolitical strategies, the issues that astir specify the existent narration betwixt the US and China, according to Reyes, are not going to beryllium casual to resolve.

“The mistrust is structural present – it’s built into however some countries deliberation astir powerfulness and security,” helium said.

What are the sticking points?

Fentanyl

A cardinal contented for the Trump medication is stopping the amerciable travel of drugs, peculiarly fentanyl – a almighty synthetic opiate which is 50 times much potent than heroin – from China to the US. In February, Trump slapped a 20 percent commercialized tariff connected each imports from China, citing Beijing’s deficiency of effort successful curbing the travel of the cause into the US.

In a media briefing enactment sent to Al Jazeera by the German Marshall Fund of the United States, Bonnie Glaser, managing manager of GMF’s Indo-Pacific programme, said the fentanyl commercialized has been “a truly contentious contented betwixt the US and China”.

“From what I person heard, a transgression money-laundering practice supports the fentanyl trade, and this is wherever China is consenting to cooperate, successful a mode wherever it volition person minimum antagonistic interaction connected their home situation,” she said astatine a briefing held successful Washington, DC, connected Tuesday.

Late connected Tuesday, The Wall Street Journal reported that during Thursday’s meeting, “China is expected to perpetrate to much controls connected the export of alleged precursor chemicals utilized to marque fentanyl.” The paper added that if this statement is reached, Trump would trim the tariffs imposed due to the fact that of fentanyl by arsenic overmuch arsenic 10 percent.

Trade tariffs

Following the fentanyl-related tariffs, successful March, China imposed a 15 percent tariff connected a scope of US workplace exports successful retaliation, triggering a tit-for-tat tariff war.

In April, Trump raised tariffs connected Chinese imports to 145 percent, prompting China to deed backmost with 125 percent tariffs of its own.

Washington and Beijing aboriginal chopped tariffs to 30 percent and 10 percent, respectively, successful May, and agreed to a 90-day truce successful August for commercialized talks. The truce has been extended twice, but contempt repeated talks, a commercialized statement has not been reached.

Rare-earth metals and soya beans

China has restricted exports of 12 captious rare-earth metals this year, arsenic good arsenic of the machinery needed to refine these metals, citing information reasons. Beijing besides said its restrictions were successful effect to US restrictions connected the Chinese maritime, logistics and shipbuilding industries.

The archetypal 7 metals to beryllium restricted were announced successful April, portion the remaining 5 were announced connected October 10. These metals are important for the defence manufacture and for processing AI technology.

In October, Trump responded by threatening to enforce 100 percent tariffs connected China from November 1, citing Beijing’s strict export controls connected captious uncommon earths arsenic the crushed for the tariffs.

Trump added that the US would besides enforce export controls connected “any and each captious software”.

Reyes noted that portion the US wants guaranteed entree to uncommon earths and artillery materials, it signed a caller statement with Japan and commercialized clauses with Malaysia this week, which purpose to trim the US dependence connected China for these. “Beijing sees this arsenic an effort to incorporate its influence,” helium said.

Meanwhile, US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent told galore US media outlets this week that helium expected China to defer its restrictions connected uncommon earths and that Trump’s 100 percent tariff menace was “effectively disconnected the table”.

Bessent added that the Chinese broadside would hold to summation purchases of US-grown soya beans.

Dylan Loh, subordinate prof successful nationalist argumentation and planetary affairs astatine Nanyang Technological University, said helium anticipates immoderate affirmative question connected solving these commercialized disputes but does not judge the cardinal economical hostility betwixt the US and China volition beryllium resolved astatine the meeting.

“The contention and mistrust spell beyond simply economics,” helium told Al Jazeera. “But the problems tin beryllium managed and indispensable beryllium managed well. It requires governmental superior and the quality to determination beyond zero-sum thinking.”

Technology and TikTok

In September, Trump signed an enforcement bid to transportation TikTok’s US assets to US investors, citing nationalist information reasons. On Sunday, Bessent told US broadcaster CBS that the US and China had “reached a last woody connected TikTok”, which volition beryllium finalised astatine the Trump-Xi meeting.

But, Reyes said, “the woody cools 1 quality but doesn’t extremity the combat implicit chips, AI and integer control”.

In October, Washington blacklisted hundreds of Chinese tech firms, claiming they posed a hazard to nationalist security. The US has besides restricted companies specified arsenic Nvidia from exporting precocious chips, important to manufacture cardinal instrumentality utilized for the improvement of AI, to China, claiming that Beijing would usage it to beforehand its planetary power.

Beijing has been irked by Washington’s restrictions and has launched antitrust investigations into Nvidia and Qualcomm, and has besides accrued its export controls connected rare-earth elements.

Speaking to reporters connected committee Air Force One en way to South Korea connected Wednesday, Trump said helium mightiness talk to Xi astir Nvidia chips.

“I deliberation we whitethorn beryllium talking astir that with President Xi,” Trump said.

Geopolitical Issues

According to analysts, Trump is anxious to usage this gathering with Xi to sermon ways to extremity Russia’s warfare successful Ukraine.

Beijing, a adjacent state of Moscow, has said a prolonged warfare successful Ukraine “serves nary one’s interest”. But, successful July, according to a study by The South China Morning Post, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the European Union that it can’t spend to person Russia suffer the warfare successful Ukraine since the US would past crook its attraction to China.

Trump has threatened to slap sanctions and tariffs connected countries that bargain Moscow’s crude lipid successful efforts to extremity the war. It has already imposed an further 25 percent tariff – bringing the full to 50 percent – connected India arsenic a punishment for purchasing Russian oil.

But the US has not yet taken this measurement with China, which imports astir 1.4 cardinal barrels of Russian lipid per time by sea.

According to a Reuters report, however, aft the US sanctioned 2 of Moscow’s largest lipid companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, successful October, Chinese nationalist lipid companies similar PetroChina and Sinopec person said they volition refrain from importing seaborne Russian lipid for the abbreviated term.

“Trump wants a ceasefire and a bid woody successful Ukraine. Putin has been unwilling to play ball, and Trump, I think, intends to rise this with Xi Jinping, perchance inquire him if helium tin scope retired to Putin and promote him to travel to the negotiating table,” Glaser said.

“We cognize truthful far, Xi Jinping has been very, precise cautious astir getting involved. I deliberation helium volition beryllium reluctant to unit Putin to do,” she added.

Besides Ukraine, Beijing volition beryllium anxious to sermon the US presumption connected Taiwan, according to Glaser.

“Xi Jinping volition rise concerns astir what Beijing views arsenic the pro-independence policies of Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te, and I deliberation helium volition privation clarification of the US stance and whitethorn good property Trump to accidental that the US opposes Taiwan independency and supports China’s unification,” she said.

“The bottommost enactment is that Trump is not apt to wantonness Taiwan due to the fact that doing truthful could pb to a PRC [People’s Republic of China] determination to usage force, and Trump wants to instrumentality recognition for ending wars, not starting them,” Glaser added.

Trump, however, told journalists connected committee Air Force One connected Wednesday that helium was “not sure” helium would sermon Taiwan.

How beardown are their negotiating positions?

The equilibrium of powerfulness successful the respective negotiating positions of China and the US has shifted successful the caller past.

Former US President Joe Biden restricted exports of US semiconductors, which are important for the improvement of AI, overmuch to China’s annoyance. Then, aboriginal this year, Trump compounded this with 145 percent tariffs connected Chinese goods.

China retaliated with 125 percent tariffs connected US goods, escalating a commercialized war, until the 2 sides agreed successful May to intermission tariffs to let for commercialized talks.

But that was not earlier China placed export restrictions connected 7 rare-earth metals successful April. In October, China restricted exports of 5 much rare-earth metals, and Trump threatened 100 percent tariffs again successful retaliation.

This week, seeking to diversify commercialized and its proviso chains, China strengthened a commercialized woody with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). But the US besides drew up caller commercialized agreements with Japan, Malaysia and Cambodia. On Wednesday, South Korea announced that it excessively had reached a commercialized statement with the US, and was lowering tariffs connected imported US goods.

According to Loh, it is unclear who has the precocious manus close present betwixt the US and China.

“While the signing of the FTA [with ASEAN] has surely enhanced China’s presumption and power and is so rather important for ASEAN and China, it does not needfully person a nonstop bearing connected US-China itself,” Loh said.

“US retains sizeable governmental and economical power successful this portion of the satellite still, arsenic evinced by Trump’s travel here,” helium added.

According to Reyes, each broadside has antithetic kinds of leverage.

“The United States has built a caller web of allies who person virtually signed connected to Washington’s playbook,” helium said, referring to the woody Washington signed with Malaysia, which obliges Kuala Lumpur to lucifer US commercialized restrictions. Malaysia has clarified that this woody would lone use to matters of shared concern.

But Reyes said specified a woody “gives Trump’s squad governmental and ineligible momentum going into the China meeting”.

“China, though, has the economical stamina. It inactive anchors planetary manufacturing, dominates critical-mineral processing, and has proven that tariffs couldn’t interruption its model. China utilized the commercialized warfare to physique muscles, absorption and resilience – it learned to bash everything faster, cheaper and astatine scale,” helium said.

“So the US has the ‘louder’ hand; China has the steadier one. Washington tin escalate, but Beijing tin outlast,” Reyes added.

So what is apt to travel retired of these talks?

The stakes are precocious with Trump announcing that helium anticipates a “great” meeting. But expectations of immoderate “great” result are low.

Reyes said helium expects a truce successful their strained ties with photograph opportunities alternatively than immoderate expansive bargain.

“Expect some sides to denote tiny wins: a hold connected tariffs, a associated connection connected commercialized stability, possibly a moving radical connected captious minerals cooperation,” helium said.

“This acme won’t extremity the rivalry – it simply marks a caller phase: the US gathering alliances done treaties, and China doing overmuch the same, portion consolidating powerfulness done endurance building. This gathering isn’t astir ending the rivalry – it’s astir learning to unrecorded with it,” helium said.