US air strikes won’t fix Nigeria’s security crisis but could make it worse

The caller strikes by the United States connected alleged ISIL (ISIS) targets successful northwest Nigeria person been presented successful Washington arsenic a decisive counter-terror response. For the supporters of the medication of US President Donald Trump, the unprecedented cognition signalled his country’s renewed resoluteness successful confronting terrorism. It is besides making bully connected Trump’s pledge to instrumentality enactment connected what helium claims is simply a “Christian genocide” successful Nigeria.

But beneath the spectacle of subject enactment lies a sobering reality: Bombing campaigns of this quality are improbable to amended Nigeria’s information oregon assistance stabilise the conflict-racked country. On the contrary, the strikes hazard misrepresenting the struggle and distracting from the deeper structural situation that is driving violence.

The archetypal occupation with the strikes is their deficiency of strategical logic. The archetypal strikes were launched successful Sokoto successful northwest Nigeria, a portion that has experienced aggravated turmoil implicit the past decade. But this unit is not chiefly driven by an ideological insurgency linked to ISIL, and nary known ISIL-linked groups are operating successful the region. Instead, information concerns successful this portion are rooted successful banditry, the illness of agrarian economies, and contention for land. Armed groups present are fragmented and motivated mostly by profit.

The Christmas Day strikes appear to person focused connected a comparatively caller ideological equipped radical called Lakurawa, though its illustration and immoderate transportation to ISIL are yet to beryllium afloat established.

The ideological equipped groups with the strongest beingness successful bluish Nigeria are Boko Haram and the ISIL-affiliate successful West Africa Province (ISWAP). The centre of these groups’ enactment remains hundreds of kilometres from Sokoto, successful the northeast of Nigeria – the states of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa – wherever insurgency has a agelong history. This begs the question: Why onslaught the northwest first? The logic is unclear.

Equally concerning is the uncertainty surrounding casualties. So far, we person nary authoritative figures. Some societal media accounts assertion determination were nary quality casualties, suggesting the bombs fell connected bare targets. Security expert Brant Philip posted connected his societal media level X: “According to a backstage root acquainted with the US cognition against the Islamic State successful Nigeria, respective strikes were launched, but astir of the individuals and groups targeted were missed, and the existent harm inflicted remains mostly unknown.”

Nigerian quality level Arise TV reported connected X that locals confirmed the incidental caused wide panic; according to its correspondent, astatine slightest 1 of the attacks happened successful a territory that had not suffered from unit before. They besides noted that the afloat interaction of the attack, including whether determination were civilian casualties, is yet to beryllium determined.

Other societal media accounts person circulated images alleging civilian casualties, though these claims stay unverified. In a discourse wherever accusation warfare operates alongside equipped conflict, speculation often travels faster than facts. The deficiency of transparent information connected casualties from the US authorities risks deepening mistrust among communities already wary of overseas subject involvement.

Symbolism besides matters. The onslaught took spot connected Christmas Day, a item that carries emotive and governmental significance. For galore Muslims successful bluish Nigeria, the timing risks being interpreted arsenic an enactment of supporting a broader communicative of a Western “crusade” against the Muslim community.

Even much delicate is the determination of the strikes: Sokoto. Historically, it is the spiritual spot of the 19th-century Sokoto Caliphate, a centre of Islamic authorization and enlargement revered by Nigerian Muslims. Bombing specified a symbolic centre risks inflaming anti-US sentiment, deepening spiritual suspicion, and giving hardline propagandists fertile crushed to exploit. Rather than weakening alleged ISIL influence, the strikes could inadvertently energise recruitment and amplify grievance narratives.

If aerial strikes cannot lick Nigeria’s information crisis, what can?

The reply lies not successful overseas subject intervention. Nigeria’s conflicts are symptoms of deeper governance failures: Weakened security, corruption, and the lack of the authorities successful agrarian communities. In the northwest, wherever banditry thrives, residents often negociate with equipped groups not due to the fact that they sympathise with them, but due to the fact that the authorities is mostly absent to supply them with information and basal services. In the northeast, wherever Boko Haram emerged, years of authorities neglect, heavy-handed information tactics, and economical exclusion created fertile crushed for insurgency.

The astir sustainable information effect indispensable truthful beryllium multi-layered. It requires concern successful community-based policing, dialogue, and pathways for deradicalisation. It demands a authorities beingness that protects alternatively than punishes. It means prioritising quality gathering, strengthening section authorities, and restoring spot betwixt citizens and authorities institutions.

The US strikes whitethorn make headlines and fulfill a home audience, but connected the crushed successful Nigeria, they hazard doing small much than empowering hardline messaging and deepening resentment.

Nigerians bash not request the US to weaponry their state into information and stability. They request autochthonous reform: Localised semipermanent enactment to rebuild trust, reconstruct livelihoods, and fortify authorities institutions. Anything little is simply a distraction.

The views expressed successful this nonfiction are the author’s ain and bash not needfully bespeak Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.