US-India relations hit new low despite Trump-Modi bromance: What’s next?

New Delhi, India — When Donald Trump returned to the White House successful January, galore Indian analysts celebrated, arguing that his bonhomie with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi would shield the state from the chaos that the United States president could unleash.

The 2 leaders had efficaciously campaigned for each different previously, attending associated rallies. They person repeatedly described each different arsenic friends, and successful February, Modi became among the archetypal satellite leaders to sojourn Trump successful the White House.

But six months later, a sobering world has deed New Delhi, with Trump punishing it with a 25 percent tariff connected imports and near-daily threats to summation those levies further due to the fact that of India’s lipid purchases from Russia, arsenic helium tries to unit Moscow into accepting a ceasefire successful its warfare connected Ukraine.

An India-US commercialized woody remains elusive, and bilateral relations are connected a slippery slope, according to immoderate experts. “US-India relations are astatine the lowest constituent successful decades,” Biswajit Dhar, a commercialized economist who has worked connected respective Indian commercialized deals, told Al Jazeera. Dozens of different countries, including neighbours India has tense ties with, specified arsenic Pakistan and Bangladesh, are facing little tariffs.

Addressing a nationalist rally connected Saturday, Modi took a defiant stance against Trump’s tariff assaults. “The satellite system is going done galore apprehensions. There is an ambiance of instability,” Modi said.

“Now, immoderate we buy, determination should beryllium lone 1 scale: we volition bargain those things which person been made by the sweat of an Indian,” helium added.

Modi’s comments travel arsenic Indian officials reportedly cull stopping the buying of Russian crude.

Trump has blamed India’s buying of Russian lipid for helping concern Moscow’s warfare connected Ukraine. “They [Indians] don’t attraction however galore radical successful Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine,”  Trump said Monday. “Because of this, I volition beryllium substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA.”

So, however did we get here? What are the increasing points of discord betwixt India and the US? And could India springiness up connected Russian lipid to prevention its narration with the US?

What are the friction points successful US-India relations?

Modi and Trump mightiness talk highly of each other, but determination is simply a increasing fig of areas wherever India and Russia are astatine odds, ranging from commercialized agreements to strategical alignment.

No commercialized deal

Trade has agelong been a sticking constituent successful US-India relations, adjacent arsenic strategical and defence ties person deepened. The US has consistently pushed for greater marketplace access, little tariffs and stronger protections, particularly for its tech, pharmaceutical and cultivation exports. India, connected the different hand, has resisted what it sees arsenic disproportionate unit to unfastened up its system successful ways that whitethorn harm its home industries and tiny farmers.

Yet, earlier Trump, the 2 countries managed this economical relationship, contempt its imbalance: India sold doubly arsenic overmuch to the US arsenic the US sold to India. The US wanted entree to India’s increasing markets, and India needed to export to the US, truthful keeping ties afloat was important to both.

After Trump archetypal announced tariffs connected astir each trading partners connected April 1, Indian and US officials began talks to stitch unneurotic a commercialized deal. But disagreements implicit e-commerce regulation, integer information flows and terms controls connected aesculapian devices person reportedly stalled progress.

Indian officials were frantically chasing the August 1 deadline acceptable by Trump to debar tariffs. But contempt occasional breakthroughs, similar India cutting tariffs connected immoderate US goods, the 2 countries person not yet concluded a afloat bilateral commercialized deal.

With negotiations inactive nether way, New Delhi present faces 25 percent tariffs connected its exports to the US, and Trump has threatened unspecified further penalties tied to India’s vigor and arms purchases from Russia.

“This is simply a unit maneuver by Trump,” said Anil Trigunayat, a erstwhile Indian diplomat who has served arsenic India’s commercialized commissioner successful New York. “Unlike others, India has not fixed successful to what the Americans privation due to the fact that we person to support our MSMEs and agriculture,” helium added, utilizing the acronym for micro, small, and mean enterprises.

Almost fractional of India’s colonisation depends connected agriculture for its livelihood, making the contented politically delicate for each Indian government.

“Everybody is playing hardball connected some sides, and it’s indispensable to get astatine a mutually beneficial solution,” helium told Al Jazeera.

US President Donald Trump and Indian  Prime Minister Narendra Modi shingle hands during a quality league successful the East Room of the White House, connected February 13, 2025, successful Washington, DC [Alex Brandon/AP]

India’s adjacent ties with Russia

As Trump’s frustrations with Russia equine implicit stalled bid talks to extremity the warfare successful Ukraine, the US president has been looking for much ways to country Moscow. India’s longstanding narration with Russia has emerged arsenic a cardinal people for Washington.

While the US views India arsenic a cardinal spouse successful countering China’s emergence successful the Asia Pacific, it has grown progressively uneasy with New Delhi’s continued defence and vigor ties with Moscow, analysts say.

At a clip erstwhile the West has shunned Russian President Vladimir Putin, who besides faces an apprehension warrant from the International Criminal Court related to the warfare successful Ukraine, Modi visited Russia doubly past year. In July 2024, Putin conferred upon Modi the Order of St Andrew the Apostle the First‑Called, Russia’s highest civilian honour.

Russia remains 1 of India’s largest arms suppliers, and their practice spans captious technologies, including rocket systems and atomic reactors. And aft Russia’s full-scale penetration of Ukraine successful 2022, India ramped up imports of discounted Russian crude oil.

Kashmir ceasefire

After an onslaught by gunmen successful Indian-administered Kashmir’s Pahalgam edifice municipality connected April 22, successful which 26 civilians were killed, India and Pakistan engaged successful their astir expansive subject struggle successful decades.

As the South Asian nuclear-armed rivals traded rocket and drone attacks successful May, Trump said helium intervened and told some countries to hold to a ceasefire, oregon determination would beryllium nary trade.

“Fellas, travel on. Let’s marque a deal. Let’s bash immoderate trading. Let’s not commercialized atomic missiles. Let’s commercialized the things that you marque truthful beautifully,” Trump said a fewer days aboriginal successful Riyadh.

“I utilized commercialized to a ample grade to bash [the ceasefire]. And it each stopped,” helium added.

In India, which has agelong held the presumption that each disputes with Pakistan indispensable beryllium settled bilaterally, with nary third-party mediation, Trump’s assertion that helium engineered the May 10 ceasefire that stopped the warring has sparked disapproval of Modi from the opposition.

Modi’s authorities has insisted that the truce was brought astir bilaterally, that Modi did not talk to Trump during the conflict, and that – contrary to the US president’s claims – commercialized was ne'er discussed arsenic a origin successful negotiating the ceasefire. But Trump has doubled down connected his claim, mentioning much than 30 times that helium brokered peace.

Growing US-Pakistan ties

After the ceasefire betwixt India and Pakistan successful May, Trump hosted Pakistan’s service chief, Asim Munir, astatine the White House. Never earlier had a US president hosted a Pakistani subject brag who was not besides the caput of state.

That gathering underscored a increasing warmth betwixt Washington and Islamabad aft years of tense ties, with US subject officials crediting Pakistan with helping them seizure wanted “terrorists”.

The authorities of Pakistan besides officially endorsed Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize for “recognition of his decisive diplomatic involution and pivotal enactment during the caller India-Pakistan crisis”.

A time aft gathering Munir, Trump called Modi a “fantastic man”, but added that Munir was “extremely influential” successful bringing astir the ceasefire.

“I emotion Pakistan,” Trump said, and repeated: “I stopped the warfare betwixt Pakistan and India.”

As Trump targeted India successful his latest tariff assault, helium took to his Truth Social level to uncover that helium had concluded a woody with Pakistan, successful which they would enactment unneurotic connected processing lipid reserves. “Who knows, possibly they’ll beryllium selling Oil to India immoderate day!” helium wrote.

Later, the US imposed a 19 percent tariff connected imports from Pakistan, which Islamabad hailed arsenic “balanced and forward-looking”.

Big Tech hiring, deportation

Days earlier Modi visited Trump successful February, visuals emerged of Indian citizens successful the US, shackled successful chains, parading towards a US subject aircraft, prompting choler successful India implicit the attraction of its nationals.

Returnees, immigrants without documents to enactment successful the US, described being chained passim the formation to India, incapable to determination for astir 40 hours. Like trade, the contented of deportation has been astatine the centre of Trump’s re-election campaign.

And it is not conscionable undocumented migrants.

After assuming the presidency, Trump’s medication has besides travel nether unit from the president’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) basal to ace down connected H1B enactment visas, astir 72 percent of which spell to Indians.

Last month, speaking astatine an artificial quality acme successful Washington, DC, Trump singled retired tech giants similar Google, Microsoft and Apple for hiring workers from India. Trump declared, “The days of hiring workers successful India are over”, and urged companies to prioritise jobs for Americans and disconnect from outsourcing models tied to India and China.

Russian President Vladimir Putin awards Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi with the Order of St Andrew the Apostle the First-Called, astatine the Kremlin successful Moscow, Russia, connected July 9, 2024 [Evgenia Novozhenina/Reuters]

What’s the latest spark successful US-India tensions?

Russia’s warfare connected Ukraine has emerged arsenic the latest trigger, arsenic Trump tried to propulsion Putin into accepting a ceasefire.

On Monday, Trump wrote connected his Truth Social level that “India is not lone buying monolithic amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for overmuch of the Oil purchased, selling it connected the Open Market for large profits”.

Earlier, Stephen Miller, the lawman main of unit astatine the White House and 1 of the US president’s astir influential aides, linked India’s buying of Russian crude to financing Moscow’s warfare successful Ukraine.

“What [Trump] said precise intelligibly is that it is not acceptable for India to proceed financing this warfare by purchasing the lipid from Russia,” said Miller.

“People volition beryllium shocked to larn that India is fundamentally tied with China successful purchasing Russian oil. That’s an astonishing fact,” Miller told Fox News’s Sunday Morning Futures.

India imports astir 2 cardinal barrels of crude lipid per time from Russia, making it the second-largest purchaser of Russian lipid aft China. Russia besides tops the database of India’s arms suppliers.

How has India reacted to Trump?

On Monday, India’s Ministry of External Affairs responded sharply, calling the US’s targeting of New Delhi implicit the buying of Russian lipid “unjustified and unreasonable”.

It accused the West of treble standards, pointing retired however Europe traded much with Russia successful 2024 than India did, and however the US continues to import chemicals and fertilisers from Russia.

It besides said that the US has “actively encouraged” it to bargain Russian oil, truthful that planetary crude prices would enactment nether power portion the West could trim its dependence connected Russian energy.

“India volition instrumentality each indispensable measures to safeguard its nationalist interests and economical security,” the connection concluded.

Will India halt buying Russian lipid to delight Trump?

That is precise unlikely, experts say.

India has historically — since independency from Britain successful 1947 — cherished its strategical autonomy, including during the Cold War, erstwhile it stayed non-aligned. Since the extremity of the Cold War, it has deepened strategical and subject ties with the US portion maintaining its accepted relationship with Russia.

“Trump is trying to wean India disconnected its strategical autonomy argumentation by going aft its ties with Russia and rank successful BRICS,” Michael Kugelman, manager of the South Asia Institute astatine the Wilson Center successful Washington, DC, told Al Jazeera, referring to the Trump’s threats of higher tariffs against members of the bloc that includes respective starring nations of the Global South.

“But Delhi is not astir to jettison this argumentation successful the look of Trump’s pressure. On the contrary, I expect it to treble down.”

Late connected Tuesday, India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval landed successful Moscow. Minister of External Affairs S Jaishankar is expected to sojourn Russia aboriginal this month. And New Delhi has confirmed that Putin volition beryllium visiting India aboriginal this year, for the archetypal clip since the 2022 penetration of Ukraine.

In caller weeks, India has besides indicated that it is unfastened to reviving a trilateral grouping including Russia and China, the West’s 2 large rivals.

“Can the US oregon Europe springiness up their strategical autonomy?” asked Jayati Ghosh, economics prof astatine the University of Massachusetts Amherst. “India has much radical than some of them enactment together. It is absurd to adjacent deliberation that India tin springiness up that,” she told Al Jazeera.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping clasp a gathering connected the sidelines of the G20 acme successful Osaka connected June 28, 2019 [Mikhail Klimentyev/Sputnik/ AFP]

What does this mean for aboriginal of US-India relationship?

Echoing Dhar, the economist, Kugelman said that US-India relations person “sunk to their lowest level during the past 2 decades of strategical partnership”, which began taking signifier successful the aboriginal years of the 21st century.

Non-alignment with overseas governments “remains a captious constituent of India’s overseas policy”, said Kugelman, adding that helium expects that to continue.

And due to the fact that “India maintained this equilibrium aft Russia’s penetration of Ukraine, Trump is penalising [New Delhi] for trying to support the equilibrium [between US and Russia],” helium said. “[That’s] thing that the Biden medication ne'er did,” helium added, referring to the erstwhile medication of US President Joe Biden.

Trigunayat, the erstwhile diplomat, said that “strategic autonomy for India is much important present than ever. India, with the world’s largest population, has its ain attack to strategical autonomy that’s successful the DNA of Indian overseas policy.”

In the longer run, Kugelman said that New Delhi volition anticipation that Trump’s ire volition yet stroke implicit – a apt lawsuit if Russia agrees to halt warring successful Ukraine.

“In that sense, India whitethorn look to redouble efforts to property Putin to extremity the war,” said Kugelman, “because for now, Trump appears to beryllium taking retired his vexation with Putin connected India”.