US-Iran tensions: Trump has no path to an easy ‘win’ despite Tehran’s woes

Washington, DC – Donald Trump says his goal successful Iran is to “win”.

But the United States president has nary casual way to triumph against an ideological Iranian governing strategy warring for survival, analysts say.

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Iran is apt to meaningfully retaliate against immoderate onslaught against its cardinal government, dissimilar its mostly symbolic effect to the US bombing of the country’s atomic facilities successful June and the assassination of its apical wide Qassem Soleimani successful 2020.

A decapitation onslaught to termination Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and different apical officials whitethorn neglect to illness the authorities and could pb to further destabilisation, and a protracted US warfare could beryllium catastrophic and costly for Washington and the region.

“All the options are beauteous terrible,” said Barbara Slavin, distinguished chap astatine the Stimson Center deliberation tank.

“It’s precise hard to cognize what volition instrumentality spot if you bash ‘A’ oregon ‘B’. What are the after-effects going to be? And peculiarly if the authorities feels that its backmost is up against the wall, it could lash retired successful truly horrific ways against American forces successful the region, against allies.”

Since the commencement of the year, arsenic a wave of antigovernment demonstrations expanse Iran, Trump has threatened to intervene militarily against the state if the authorities termination protesters.

“If Iran shots [sic] and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America volition travel to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and acceptable to go,” Trump wrote successful a societal media station connected January 2.

Over the past 2 weeks, helium repeated that menace respective times, and helium called connected protesters to instrumentality implicit authorities institutions, promising them that “help is connected the way”.

But the authorities has led a deadly crackdown, and the decease toll has risen into the thousands, according to activistic groups. As Iranian authorities imposed a full net blackout connected the country, Trump appeared to dial backmost his position.

On Wednesday, Trump presented Tehran’s version of the events – that equipped demonstrators were targeting information forces.

“They [Iranian officials] said radical were shooting astatine them with guns, and they were shooting back,” Trump said. “And you know, it’s 1 of those things, but they told maine that determination volition beryllium nary executions, and truthful I anticipation that’s true.”

Two days later, Trump conveyed his “respect” and gratitude to Iran for cancelling what helium said were 800 executions scheduled for Thursday.

‘Sugar precocious from Venezuela’

Some reports besides suggest that the protestation question appears to beryllium receding for now, though it is hard to verify the concern connected the crushed with Iranians incapable to entree the internet.

But experts pass the situation is not over, and the concern could alteration quickly. Demonstrations whitethorn ignite again, and Trump has not taken the subject enactment off the table.

Several US media outlets reported connected Friday that the Pentagon is starting to surge subject assets to the Middle East, including an craft bearer onslaught group.

Trump has shown willingness to deploy the brute unit of the US subject to beforehand his argumentation goals.

He has bragged astir the sidesplitting of ISIL (ISIS) person Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi successful 2019, the Soleimani assassination and the bombing of Iran’s atomic facilities past year. Just this month, helium ordered the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

But experts accidental Trump’s chances of a swift operational victory successful Iran are slim.

“This is not Venezuela,” Slavin said of Iran.

“This is not 1 and done, and fixed each the different crises, galore of them self-inflicted, that helium is dealing with – Venezuela, this ridiculous effort to take implicit Greenland – does helium truly privation a monolithic situation successful the Middle East aft having campaigned against this benignant of adventure?”

Only 2 months ago, the Trump medication released a National Security Strategy outlining a propulsion to displacement overseas argumentation resources distant from the Middle East. It said that the past considerations that made the portion truthful important to the US – namely, vigor accumulation and wide struggle – “no longer hold”.

The papers besides asserted Trump’s committedness to non-interventionism.

“We question bully relations and peaceful commercialized relations with the nations of the satellite without imposing connected them antiauthoritarian oregon different societal alteration that differs wide from their traditions and histories,” it read.

However, fixed the Iranian government’s brutal crackdown connected protests, Trump whitethorn person “cornered himself into being a humanitarian interventionist”, according to Trita Parsi, the enforcement vice president astatine the Quincy Institute, a deliberation vessel focused connected diplomacy.

“He whitethorn beryllium connected a sweetener precocious from Venezuela, but that’s not replicable successful Iran successful that aforesaid manner, and it would necessitate tremendous magnitude of subject force,” Parsi told Al Jazeera.

How Iran whitethorn respond

After the June 2025 strikes against Iran’s atomic facilities, Tehran’s effect was comparatively restrained. Iranian forces fired a volley of missiles astatine Al Udeid Air Base successful Qatar, which hosts US troops, successful an onslaught that caused nary casualties.

But Parsi said Iranian authorities person travel to the decision that they volition nary longer tolerate attacks to debar a large confrontation with Washington.

“Even though it’s going to beryllium precise atrocious for them, of course, the metric of occurrence for Trump and the metric of occurrence for Iran whitethorn beryllium precise different,” helium said.

“Trump whitethorn request to instrumentality down the full state. The Iranians cannot triumph the war, but they don’t person to. They conscionable request to marque definite that they destruct Trump’s presidency earlier they suffer a protracted warfare that goes connected for immoderate weeks. Oil prices shooting up, ostentation going up worldwide, including successful the United States, could beryllium capable to destruct Trump’s presidency.”

Naysan Rafati, a elder Iran expert astatine the International Crisis Group deliberation tank, said Iranian officials were consenting to tolerate some the Soleimani assassination and the strikes connected atomic facilities due to the fact that of the constricted quality of the attacks.

But the authorities views the antigovernment protests arsenic an existential threat, and adjacent a constricted US onslaught whitethorn punctual a stronger effect from Tehran.

“If the Iranians are convinced that it’s a commencement of a wider run oregon that its effect connected the crushed volition beryllium sufficiently galvanising to spark different surge successful the protests, past their hopeless presumption could pb to reckless decisions,” Rafati told Al Jazeera.

If Trump’s extremity were to illness the regime, Rafati believes that Washington would ideally trust connected a “synergy” of protesters reaching a captious wide and Iranians acting arsenic boots connected the ground, supported by a US aerial campaign.

But helium noted that Trump is much inclined to prosecute speedy and decisive subject operations.

“And present you get into imaginable scenarios wherever the ends are a small spot muddied,” Rafati said.

“Like, what happens if you extremity up successful a script of US action, Iranian retaliation and past further US effect – and past broadening of the campaign?”

Iran struggling

Despite the risks associated with subject enactment with Iran, Tehran’s foes, including galore US officials successful Trump’s orbit, spot a historical accidental to instrumentality down the Iranian system.

Since the triumph of the Islamic gyration successful 1979, Iran has endured tremendous hardships and survived wars, sanctions and interior unrest.

The Iran-Iraq war successful the 1980s lasted 8 years and killed hundreds of thousands of people. But the authorities survived it, arsenic it has withstood respective waves of protests, economical crises and feuds wrong the ruling class.

But the Islamic Republic is presently surviving done the astir challenging play successful its 47-year history, analysts say.

The web of determination allies that Tehran fostered implicit decades – known arsenic the “axis of the resistance” – has each but crumbled.

Hamas and Hezbollah person been severely weakened by Israel’s genocidal warfare connected Gaza and its devastating 2024 run successful Lebanon. Former President Bashar al-Assad successful Syria fell to equipped absorption fighters hostile to Tehran who person since taken power.

Even successful Venezuela, Iran mislaid 1 of its past lasting allies successful Maduro aft his detention.

Militarily, Iran’s quality to deter attacks has been severely degraded aft Israel took retired the country’s aerial defences and claimed full power of the country’s skies successful June of past year.

Tehran’s atomic programme was besides severely damaged by the US strikes, and Iran is nary longer enriching uranium, though it continues to emphasise its close to enrichment.

These outer challenges person been compounded by a crushing economical downfall aft years of sanctions. The Iranian currency, the rial, has mislaid much than 90 percent of its value, reaching an all-time low.

And the protests, which person been met by a harsh information response, present correspond a legitimacy situation for the government.

“The ferociousness with which the authorities has responded successful the past 2 weeks underscores their consciousness of heavy vulnerability, some successful presumption of their interior governmental legitimacy but besides their strategical presumption successful the portion and vis-a-vis the US,” said Rafati.

For warfare hawks successful Washington, Iran’s existent vulnerability is simply a accidental to “vanquish the large bete noir of US determination argumentation for the past 47 years”, Rafati added.

Diplomacy chances

US Senator Lindsey Graham, who is adjacent to Trump, has been making the lawsuit that Iran is ripe for regime change, and helium travelled to Israel this week to beforehand the propulsion for war.

The interventionist voices astir Trump, however, are balanced by geopolitical dynamics: The US’s Gulf allies, wary of instability and determination violence, person cautioned against striking Iran.

Internally, Trump indispensable besides look American voters up of the captious 2026 midterm elections, including ample segments of his “America First” basal who are mostly opposed to warfare aft the failures successful Iraq and Afghanistan.

Parsi noted that, adjacent though the abduction of Maduro came astatine a minimal outgo to the US, sentiment polls suggest that the American nationalist is not pleased with the subject involution successful Venezuela.

“I don’t deliberation his basal is excited astir this astatine all,” Parsi said.

“I deliberation the basal wonders wherefore helium is inactive truthful focused connected overseas argumentation issues alternatively of focusing connected home issues that they judge are overmuch much important for their concerns.”

So is diplomacy inactive possible?

On Thursday, Trump’s peculiar envoy Steve Witkoff said helium hopes that determination is simply a diplomatic resolution.

He outlined a database of US demands for Iran: giving up connected atomic enrichment, handing implicit highly enriched uranium, cutting backmost its rocket programme and ending enactment for “proxies” similar Hezbollah.

“If they privation to travel backmost to the league of nations [and] we tin lick those 4 problems diplomatically, past that would beryllium a large resolution. The alternate is simply a atrocious one,” Witkoff said.

Parsi, however, said the US is asking for capitulation from Iran and moving the extremity posts.

“I don’t spot a likelihood of diplomacy succeeding unless determination is simply a profound recalibration of what it is that the US really seeks to achieve, astatine slightest successful this scenario,” helium said.

“I’m not peculiarly optimistic that diplomacy successful the mode that the medication presently is envisioning tin succeed.”

But Rafati underscored that Iran is presently already astatine zero enrichment, but that the state has maintained it has a close to ore uranium and bolster its defences.

“Given that the Iranian position, particularly connected enrichment, has been reasonably accordant [and] its presumption connected missiles has been reasonably consistent, it would necessitate a precise important displacement successful its positions, recognising that its economical and governmental fortunes are not promising,” helium said.

Iran has remained defiant passim the ordeal, describing the protests arsenic a US-Israeli crippled to dispersed chaos successful the country. Iranian officials person pointed to Israeli media reports that overseas agents are arming demonstrators to termination information forces and onslaught nationalist institutions.

Tehran has besides promised beardown retaliation against immoderate outer attack.

But Slavin said it is imaginable that Iran could compromise connected the atomic issue and springiness up its enriched uranium for authorisation relief.

“That would beryllium precise controversial. A batch of radical would impeach Trump of selling retired the protesters, but I could ideate that helium mightiness instrumentality immoderate benignant of woody similar that and telephone it a large victory,” she told Al Jazeera.