US trade war, India-China ties loom large at SCO summit in Tianjin

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are among the much than 20 satellite leaders attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, which is present the world’s largest determination grouping by population.

The Beijing-backed bloc volition convene connected Sunday and Monday successful the bluish Chinese metropolis of Tianjin, bringing unneurotic a divers scope of powerfulness brokers from crossed Asia, Europe and the Middle East.

Founded by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan successful 2001, the acme has shifted absorption implicit the past 2 decades from Central Asian concerns to planetary matters.

More significantly, the SCO has go an indispensable portion of China’s “parallel planetary governance architecture”, said Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China-Global South Project.

As Beijing assumes the mantle of the world’s second-largest superpower, the SCO has created spaces for dialog and practice extracurricular “the US-led planetary system”, Olander told Al Jazeera.

While the acme successful Tianjin is mostly symbolic, it is simply a invaluable accidental to bring unneurotic global leaders and bureaucrats successful a forum wherever they tin stock “common grievances”, Olander said.

With the gathering acceptable to beryllium overshadowed by United States President Donald Trump’s commercialized warfare against overmuch of the satellite – including galore accepted allies of Washington – attendees are apt to person adjacent much communal ground.

Guests scope from Putin, who is wanted for warfare crimes by the International Criminal Court, to Belarus’s authoritarian person Alexander Lukashenko and the likes of United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

Many of the attendees besides person longrunning rivalries and borderline disputes, specified arsenic India with Pakistan, India with China, Saudi Arabia with Iran, and Central Asia with some China and Russia.

“There are analyzable dynamics astatine play here,” Olander said.

“Underneath the blessed household photograph is simply a batch of looking implicit shoulders,” helium said.

Defence ministers from countries including China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan and Russia applaud pursuing a radical photo, up of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Defence Ministers’ Meeting successful Qingdao, Shandong province, China, successful June 2025 [Florence Lo/Reuters]

‘Swing states’

The SCO has expanded its membership successful caller years to see specified governmental heavyweights arsenic India, Pakistan, Iran and Belarus arsenic afloat members, with Afghanistan and Mongolia joining arsenic observers.

Official “dialogue partners” person besides grown to 14 countries, including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, Qatar, Cambodia, Myanmar and Sri Lanka.

The acme volition besides notably diagnostic Southeast Asia, a portion that Olander likened to the “swing states” successful the large powerfulness contention betwixt the US and China.

Five heads of authorities volition be from the region, including Malaysia’s Anwar Ibrahim and Indonesia’s Prabowo Subianto, arsenic good arsenic ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn.

Observers volition beryllium intimately watching the dynamics betwixt Chinese President Xi Jinping and India’s Modi, who person not met successful 7 years, said Claus Soong, an expert astatine Germany’s Mercator Institute for China Studies who specialises successful China’s planetary strategy.

India has traditionally been an state of Washington, but it was deed this week by Trump’s 50 percent tariffs arsenic punishment for its ongoing acquisition of Russian oil.

The White House says India’s commercialized is helping to support Russia’s system afloat contempt planetary sanctions, and with it, Russia’s warfare connected Ukraine.

But the shared menace of US tariffs has helped amended relations betwixt New Delhi and Beijing, which had plummeted successful 2020 implicit a deadly skirmish betwixt borderline forces successful the Himalayas.

The 2 sides reached a woody connected their distant frontier successful 2024, but their narration has remained frosty.

Analysts accidental China sees Trump’s commercialized warfare arsenic a accidental to easiness India distant from US-led governmental and subject blocs specified arsenic the QUAD, a strategical information forum that includes Japan and Australia successful summation to India and the US.

“The cardinal is to look astatine however China [characterises] its narration with India aft the sojourn and however the narration improves betwixt China and India,” Soong told Al Jazeera.

Even subtle changes successful connection by Beijing transportation important diplomatic signals, helium said.

The SCO acme volition besides people the archetypal gathering betwixt Putin and Xi since the Russian person met with President Trump successful Alaska earlier this period to sermon the Ukraine war.

Analysts volition beryllium listening for akin changes successful connection for however the 2 leaders picture the China-Russia relationship.

In 2022, conscionable weeks earlier Moscow invaded Ukraine, China and Russia signed a “no limits partnership”, and Xi has played a captious relation successful propping up Russia’s system since then.

This is simply a constituent of contention for New Delhi, arsenic China has done acold much to enactment Russia economically since the warfare started, but has not faced akin sanctions from Trump.

With truthful galore dynamics astatine play down the scenes, Daniel Balazs, a probe chap astatine the China Programme astatine Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said the astir apt result of the SCO volition beryllium a associated connection from each attendees.

China and Russia are expected to propulsion talking points specified arsenic their absorption to “unilateralism” – a coded notation to the US – but astir of the connection volition beryllium watered down to marque it palatable to all.

“The symbolism of really achieving a associated connection is much important than the contented of the connection itself,” Balazs said.

“What I would expect is to person a connection which is simply a precise non-controversial one, successful bid to get everybody connected board,” helium said.

“Security and stability, comments astir improving economical cooperation, and a mates of comments astir the value of multilateralism,” Balazs said.

Police officers basal defender successful beforehand of the Tiananmen Gate, successful an country temporarily closed to visitors owed to construction, successful beforehand of a subject parade marking the 80th day of the extremity of World War II, successful Beijing, China, connected August 20, 2025 [Florence Lo/Reuters]

Police officers basal defender successful beforehand of the Tiananmen Gate, successful an country temporarily closed to visitors owed to construction, successful beforehand of a subject parade marking the 80th day of the extremity of World War II, successful Beijing, China, connected August 20, 2025 [Florence Lo/Reuters]

Following the summit, guests volition person a afloat time successful China earlier travelling to Beijing for a monolithic subject parade connected September 3 marking 80 years since the extremity of World War II successful Asia.

That other time – September 2 – volition beryllium premier clip for bilateral meetings, the China-Global South Project’s Olander said.

“Who volition conscionable who connected the 2nd of September – that’s thing to wage attraction to,” helium said.

More heads of authorities are owed to be the parade the adjacent day, with additions said to see North Korean person Kim Jong Un, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, and Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico.

India’s Modi is not expected to enactment for the parade, though analysts accidental helium whitethorn nonstop a representative, specified arsenic his overseas minister.

The Mercator Institute’s Soong said the expansive impermanent database for the acme and the subject parade volition springiness Beijing a boost to its nationalist image, particularly among the Global South.

“This is however China demonstrates its person ellipse – who tin beryllium China’s person and who is consenting to endorse China’s narrative,” helium said.