US-Venezuela tensions: Your questions answered

In caller months, United States President Donald Trump has sharply escalated his attacks connected Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, accusing him of fuelling cause trafficking and driving wide migration from the Caribbean federation into the US.

More recently, Trump has piled increased pressure on Venezuela with a subject buildup successful the Caribbean Sea, successful what helium calls an anti-drug trafficking campaign. Caracas says that US actions are alternatively aimed astatine toppling Maduro’s government.

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Trump met his nationalist information squad connected Monday to sermon “next steps” connected Venezuela, according to media reports. Washington’s continued deployment of subject assets to the portion has sparked concerns of a imaginable war.

Last weekend, Maduro told a assemblage extracurricular the statesmanlike Miraflores Palace that helium wanted bid with the US, but lone connected the information of “sovereignty, equality and state … We bash not privation a slave’s peace, nor the bid of colonies! Colony, never! Slaves, never!”

Is the US astir to spell to warfare with Venezuela?

In caller weeks, Trump confirmed that helium authorised the CIA to transportation retired concealed operations successful Venezuela. In addition, helium has deployed the world’s largest craft carrier, USS Gerald R Ford, thousands of troops, and F-35 subject jets to the Caribbean.

On November 20, Trump said that onshore strikes wrong Venezuela could travel imminently. However, portion immoderate presumption the president’s comments and operations arsenic a mentation for subject action, Trump told reporters past play not to “read anything” into his caller moves.

Venezuela has been conducting regular subject drills implicit the past fewer weeks successful mentation for immoderate imaginable attack.

[Al Jazeera]

Why is Trump hostile to Maduro?

Washington’s caller amusement of unit recalls a long history of subject interventions crossed Latin America by successive US governments, often motivated by fearfulness of hostile powers adjacent to US borders.

Since the 1990s, ties betwixt Washington and Caracas person been dominated by tensions linked to Maduro’s left-wing predecessor, Hugo Chavez. The bilateral narration deteriorated further aft Maduro came to powerfulness pursuing Chavez’s decease successful 2013.

In caller months, US subject strikes connected alleged Venezuelan cause smugglers successful the Caribbean person dominated relations.

In July, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio accused Maduro of being “the person of the designated ‘narcoterrorist’ organisation Cartel de los Soles” and liable for “trafficking drugs into the United States and Europe”. He did not supply grounds to backmost his claim.

Moreover, experts accidental Cartel de los Soles is not a cartel.

For his part, Maduro has accused Washington of utilizing the cause violative arsenic a pretext for orchestrating authorities alteration and seizing Venezuelan oil.

What actions has the Trump medication taken?

The US has amassed 15,000 troops successful the portion and deployed an craft bearer there.

It has besides carried retired astatine slightest 21 strikes connected alleged cause boats successful the Caribbean and the Pacific since September, sidesplitting up to 83 people.

Meanwhile, subject experts accidental assembled US firepower successful the Caribbean Sea acold outweighs what is indispensable for a drug-trafficking operation, while Caracas says the US is seeking authorities change to instrumentality power of Venezuela’s immense earthy resources, including oil.

Last week, a Delaware justice ordered the merchantability of Venezuelan lipid institution Citgo – a Houston-based subsidiary of the state-owned lipid institution Petroleos de Venezuela, SA (PDVSA) – to wage disconnected billions of dollars successful missed indebtedness repayments.

Venezuela connected Tuesday denounced the US-ordered “forced sale” of the lipid company, which would rob Venezuela of captious overseas revenue.

Elsewhere, Trump declared that Venezuelan airspace had been “closed” connected November 29. His comments followed a informing from the US Federal Aviation Administration astir a “potentially hazardous situation” successful Venezuelan airspace.

Despite professing to oppose “forever wars”, Trump’s caller moves successful Venezuela — including the menace of subject strikes — awesome a readiness to escalate tensions.

Are the vessel strikes legal?

Numerous ineligible scholars person decried the US strikes successful planetary waters as illegal nether some planetary and home law. The US Congress is investigating whether a 2nd onslaught connected an alleged cause vessel successful September killed survivors of an archetypal attack. The White House has defended the deadly attack.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has said that the US strikes connected alleged boats were “not compatible with planetary law”. He has expressed his interest astir the escalating tensions betwixt the US and Venezuela.

Who are Venezuela’s cardinal allies?

Venezuela’s cardinal governmental allies are unified by a shared absorption to US power successful the region. Russia remains its strongest geopolitical backer, offering subject practice and diplomatic support. China, which is Venezuela’s fig 1 root of lipid exports, besides provides economical backing.

Venezuela and Iran besides person a deepening enslaved – sharing an anti-Western worldview and, successful the look of sanctions, some seeking alternate economical and diplomatic channels.

In Latin America, Venezuela relies connected longstanding ideological allies specified arsenic Cuba, Nicaragua, and Bolivia. These governments consistently support Caracas successful determination bodies and support adjacent ties done frameworks similar ALBA-TCP and Petrocaribe.

Though Brazil and neighbouring Colombia are governed by left-wing governments, they person refused to recognise Maduro’s 2024 re-election. However, they person voiced concerns astir the subject threats against Venezuela.

Why isn’t Venezuela wealthier?

Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven lipid reserves, estimated astatine 303 cardinal barrels successful 2023. But it lone exported $4bn worthy of crude lipid that aforesaid year, acold beneath different oil-producing countries, mostly owed to US sanctions imposed during Trump’s archetypal term.

The country’s lipid accumulation is dominated by PDVSA, which has faced challenges including ageing infrastructure, underinvestment, mismanagement and the effects of sanctions, each of which person constricted Venezuela’s quality to afloat exploit its immense reserves.

According to information from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), Venezuela exported conscionable $4.05bn worthy of crude lipid successful 2023. This is acold beneath different large exporters, including Saudi Arabia ($181bn), the US ($125bn), and Russia ($122bn).

Sanctions person besides accrued the terms of imports. The state suffers from goods shortages and rampant ostentation – the IMF forecasts it volition scope 600 percent adjacent year. The economical crisis, worsened by the US sanctions, has forced millions of people to fly to neighbouring countries successful caller years.

In 2024, Venezuela’s gross home merchandise (GDP) stood astatine $119.8bn, placing it among the smallest economies successful Latin America. Venezuela’s economical instability is rooted successful years of harsh sanctions, arsenic good arsenic its reliance connected oil.

What has the planetary effect been?

On November 30, Maduro called connected the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to assistance his country counter the “growing and amerciable threats” from the Trump administration.

In a missive to OPEC members, Venezuela’s President Maduro said, “I anticipation I tin number connected your champion efforts to halt this increasing aggression” So far, nary of the group’s members person publically responded.

On November 25, Colombian President Gustavo Petro told CNN that Trump is “not reasoning astir the democratisation of Venezuela, fto unsocial the narco-trafficking”. He added that lone a tiny information of the planetary drugs commercialized flows done the Caribbean country.

What could hap next?

On November 17, erstwhile asked astir the anticipation of deploying US troops connected Venezuelan soil, Trump told reporters astatine the White House, “I don’t regularisation retired that. I don’t regularisation retired anything. We conscionable person to instrumentality attraction of Venezuela.”

Then, connected Monday, Reuters reported that Trump offered Maduro harmless transition retired of Venezuela during a telephone connected November 21. Maduro allegedly told Trump that helium was consenting to permission Venezuela, provided helium and his household members had afloat ineligible amnesty.

The Venezuelan president besides reportedly requested the removal of sanctions for much than 100 Venezuelan authorities officials, galore accused by the US of quality rights abuses, cause trafficking oregon corruption.

Trump rejected astir of his requests connected the call, but told Maduro helium had a week to permission Venezuela for the destination of his prime alongside his household members. Al Jazeera, however, could not independently verify the report.