‘Watershed’: How Saudi-Pakistan defence pact reshapes region’s geopolitics

Islamabad, Pakistan – A beaming Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif – welcomed with Saudi F-15 combatant jets, a reddish carpet, and afloat royal protocol – joined Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman connected Wednesday to motion a “strategic communal defence agreement” (SMDA).

Observers accidental it is simply a landmark infinitesimal successful the decades-old confederation betwixt the 2 nations whose ties agelong backmost astir 8 decades.

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The signing ceremony astatine the Royal Court successful Al-Yamamah Palace successful Riyadh was witnessed by elder officials from Saudi Arabia, the custodian of 2 of Islam’s holiest sites, alongside representatives from Pakistan, the Muslim world’s lone atomic power.

The woody comes astatine a captious moment. Regional authorities person been upended by 2 years of Israeli aggression – including its warfare connected Gaza and strikes connected neighbouring states – capped by past week’s Israeli onslaught connected Doha, Qatar’s capital, which borders Saudi Arabia.

But it besides comes amid heightened tensions betwixt India and Pakistan, aft a abbreviated but aggravated struggle successful May successful which they struck each other’s subject bases implicit 4 days, taking South Asia to the brink of a full-fledged warfare betwixt nuclear-armed neighbours.

Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the statement with Saudi Arabia reflects the “shared commitment” of some nations to fortify information and beforehand determination peace, portion besides pledging to “strengthen associated deterrence against immoderate aggression”.

“The statement states that immoderate aggression against either state shall beryllium considered an aggression against both,” the ministry said.

Asfandyar Mir, a elder chap astatine the Washington DC-based Stimson Center, described the pact arsenic a “watershed” for some countries.

“Pakistan antecedently maintained communal defence treaties with the United States during the Cold War, but they crumbled by the ’70s. Even with China, contempt extended defence cooperation, Pakistan lacks a ceremonial communal defence pact,” Mir told Al Jazeera.

Muhammad Faisal, a South Asia information researcher astatine the University of Technology Sydney, said the woody could service arsenic a template for Pakistan to prosecute successful akin bilateral defence practice with the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, 2 cardinal Gulf partners.

“In the contiguous term, this statement volition consolidate and formalise multi-prong defence practice already nether way, and caller avenues to grow it via associated trainings, defence accumulation and imaginable enlargement of Pakistani troops contingent successful Saudi Arabia volition beryllium explored,” Faisal said.

Historic bonds and subject cooperation

Saudi Arabia was 1 of the archetypal countries to recognise Pakistan aft its independency successful August 1947. In 1951, the 2 nations signed a “Treaty of Friendship,” laying the instauration for decades of strategic, political, military, and economical cooperation.

Over the years, Pakistani equipped forces person deployed to the kingdom respective times and trained Saudi unit some successful the Gulf and successful Pakistan.

According to authoritative records, Pakistan has trained much than 8,000 Saudis since 1967. An statement signed successful 1982 further cemented this practice by ensuring the “deputation of Pakistan Armed Forces unit and subject training” successful Saudi Arabia.

But the latest pact arrives arsenic the Middle East’s geopolitical chessboard is successful flux. The fallout from Israel’s warfare connected Gaza and its strikes connected determination neighbours has made Gulf states uneasy, galore of which inactive trust heavy connected United States information guarantees, adjacent arsenic Washington remains Israel’s closest ally.

Qatar, attacked by Israel connected September 9 for hosting Hamas leaders, serves arsenic the guardant headquarters for US Central Command (Centcom).

As of mid-2025, immoderate 40,000–50,000 US troops are stationed crossed the Middle East, deployed successful ample bases and smaller guardant sites – astatine slightest 19 of them – including Prince Sultan Air Base extracurricular Riyadh.

While Saudi officials accidental the woody with Pakistan has been successful the works for astatine slightest a year, Sahar Khan, an autarkic information expert successful Washington, DC, said its connection volition rise eyebrows successful the US.

During its tenure from 2021 to 2025, President Joe Biden’s medication imposed sanctions connected seven occasions targeting Pakistani individuals and firms implicit alleged ballistic rocket development. Biden medication officials besides publically raised concerns implicit the scope of missiles Pakistan was building, and whether they could transportation atomic weapons arsenic acold arsenic the US.

“Pakistan already has a credibility occupation successful Washington, and this statement won’t trim it,” Khan told Al Jazeera.

Khan said that it is successful Pakistan’s involvement to clarify that its atomic and missiles programme is India-centric, and portion its bilateral relations with Saudi Arabia stay strong, “it volition not combat Saudi wars but instead, volition lone supply applicable support”.

A portion connected edge

Earlier this year, successful June, Israel waged a 12-day warfare with Iran, targeting atomic facilities arsenic good arsenic elder civilian and subject leaders. American bomber jets supported the assault, dropping monolithic bunker-buster bombs connected Fordow, 1 of Iran’s cardinal atomic sites.

Three months later, Israel struck a gathering successful a leafy Doha neighbourhood that is location to embassies, supermarkets and schools, sidesplitting astatine slightest 5 Hamas members and 1 Qatari information official.

The Doha onslaught triggered an emergency meeting of Arab and Islamic nations. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE – said they would activate a associated defence mechanism.

Faisal said the Pakistan-Saudi pact should beryllium viewed done the lens of these developments.

“These events person exacerbated information anxieties of the Gulf states portion jeopardising assurance successful the US information umbrella arsenic the eventual shield. As Gulf states look to bolster their security, determination countries specified arsenic Pakistan, Egypt and Turkiye look arsenic earthy partners,” helium said.

Khan, however, said that portion the timing of the pact does suggest a nexus with Israel’s caller onslaught connected Qatar, “such kinds of agreements instrumentality months, if not years, to negotiate”.

Yet, the Stimson Center’s Mir pointed retired that the statement would besides trial however some Pakistan and Saudi Arabia negociate their vulnerability to the other’s tensions with countries with which they person different cautiously managed relations, oregon are adjacent friends with.

“Pakistan present risks entanglement successful Saudi Arabia’s determination rivalries, peculiarly with its neighbour Iran,” helium said. “Saudi Arabia has committed itself to Pakistan’s disputes, notably with India, and perchance with the Taliban-led Afghanistan.”

The Indian question

The defence woody volition besides beryllium watched intimately successful India, Pakistan’s nuclear-armed archrival.

Relations betwixt India and Pakistan, already astatine a historical low, plummeted further successful April aft the Pahalgam attack, successful which gunmen killed 26 civilians successful Indian-administered Kashmir, for which India blamed Pakistan, which the second rejected.

Days later, successful May, the 2 countries fought a four-day skirmish, targeting each other’s subject bases with missiles and drones successful their astir superior escalation successful astir 3 decades earlier a ceasefire connected May 10 that US President Donald Trump claims helium brokered.

On Thursday, during a play quality briefing, Indian overseas ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said that the Indian authorities was alert of the signing of the pact.

“We volition survey the implications of this improvement for our nationalist information arsenic good arsenic for determination and planetary stability. The authorities remains committed to protecting India’s nationalist interests and ensuring broad nationalist information successful each domains,” Jaiswal said.

But this agreement, says Sydney-based Faisal, could rebalance the Pakistan-Saudi relationship, which successful caller years has been defined by Saudi fiscal bailouts for a struggling Pakistani economy, adjacent arsenic Riyadh cultivated person ties with India.

“Pakistan’s comparative presumption has improved,” helium said, “and caller abstraction has opened for expanding the Pak-Saudi practice connected some bilateral defence and determination information matters.”

With Pakistan’s system faltering and progressively babelike connected Saudi assistance during the past decade, India had been steadily deepening its ain narration with Riyadh. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made his 3rd sojourn to Saudi Arabia successful a decennary this April.

Mir said the caller pact shows that Saudi Arabia inactive sees worth successful its narration with Pakistan, and that Islamabad is not isolated successful its extended neighbourhood – contempt Indian attempts to get countries to region themselves from Pakistan.

“At precisely the infinitesimal erstwhile Pakistan is faced with the menace of Indian subject action,” helium said, “Pakistan has secured a beardown corporate defence statement from Saudi Arabia. So, it introduces a batch of complexity to aboriginal India-Pakistan dynamics.”

Pakistan’s atomic shield implicit Saudi Arabia?

Saudi Arabia has agelong expressed involvement successful acquiring atomic exertion for civilian use, to diversify from fossil fuels.

In January, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud reiterated Riyadh’s readiness to enrich and merchantability uranium, a cardinal constituent of atomic programmes.

But Saudi Arabia has besides repeatedly made wide that it does not question to prosecute atomic weapons.

In his 2024 publication War, American writer Bob Woodward recounted a speech successful which Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed reportedly told US Senator Lindsey Graham that Riyadh planned to enrich uranium lone for vigor purposes.

When Graham expressed interest astir the imaginable of a Saudi bomb, Woodward wrote, Salman replied:

“I don’t request uranium to marque a bomb. I volition conscionable bargain 1 from Pakistan.”

Still, Khan, the analyst, said immoderate things were unclear astir the ambit of the statement signed betwixt Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

“It is important to enactment that portion Pakistan has made defence pacts before, nary of those person led to atomic assurances oregon a enactment of a ‘nuclear umbrella’. There is thing successful this statement that indicates a enactment of a atomic umbrella oregon immoderate extended deterrence,” she said.

Mir warned that adjacent robust alliances transportation risks.

“The pact volition trigger a caller confederation authorities astir what it does oregon does not cover, deterrence, assets commitment, operational details, among others,” helium said. However, helium added, that does not diminish the governmental value of this pact being struck.

“It’s a immense improvement for some countries.”

Faisal, too, agreed, pointing retired that portion the woody refers to treating an aggression against 1 state against both, that is possibly much of a governmental statement, alternatively than an confederation oregon associated defence commitment, for now.

“Nonetheless, the governmental and defence coordination betwixt the 2 sides volition deepen, portion strengthening respective subject capabilities of some countries,” helium said.