What the U.S.-Vietnam trade deal tells us about the future of tariffs

Global attraction turned to Vietnam connected Thursday, aft U.S. President Donald Trump announced a commercialized woody with Hanoi conscionable days earlier Washington's reciprocal tariffs travel backmost successful afloat force.

Under the agreement, the U.S. volition use a 20% work connected Vietnamese imports — sharply beneath the 46% complaint Trump had imposed successful aboriginal April. U.S. imports to Vietnam volition meantime not beryllium taxable to tariffs.

Trump besides said that Vietnam had agreed to a 40% work connected immoderate products that primitively came from different country, but were sent to Vietnam for last shipment to the U.S. China has reportedly repeatedly relied connected this practice, known arsenic transshipping, to debar commercialized barriers.

Vietnam is 1 of the fewer countries that has struck a commercialized woody with the White House, portion the timepiece ticks down connected Trump's 90-day impermanent reprieve. Many nations person been near wondering however the aboriginal of their commercialized narration with the world's largest system could signifier up.

"What we learned from the Vietnam woody is, if anything, the tariffs are going to spell up from here, not down," Sebastian Raedler, caput of European equity strategy astatine BofA, told CNBC's "Europe Early Edition" connected Thursday.

But different countries mightiness besides present person an easier clip negotiating, Mark Williams, main Asia economist astatine Capital Economics, told CNBC.

"Other countries volition consciousness they should beryllium capable to fastener successful a little tariff complaint than the 20% that President Trump says Vietnam has agreed to," helium said, noting that "Vietnam had an unusually anemic negotiating hand" owed to its beardown dependency connected commercialized with the U.S.

The woody could beryllium origin for interest for different emerging marketplace economies similar Vietnam, economists and strategists astatine Citi said successful a enactment Thursday.

"On balance, we judge determination is much for EM Asia to interest astir than expect gains if this woody reflects what is to travel soon," they noted.

While the improvement removes uncertainty and suggests different agreements could look successful the coming days, the 20% tariff complaint is higher than the expected 10% levy connected goods, according to Citi's experts. They adhd that the abstracted 40% complaint connected transshipped goods suggests different countries whitethorn besides request to hold to specified a duty.

"Thailand followed by Malaysia mightiness beryllium much exposed than different EM Asia peers (apart from Vietnam). A abstracted and much punitive tariff connected transshipped goods was slightest expected by the market," the enactment said.

"Additionally, determination whitethorn beryllium spillovers to different exporters that person acceptable up factories successful Vietnam successful past years," for illustration Korea, it added.

But experts speaking to CNBC spoke are expecting respective much commercialized agreements to look successful the coming days, with Williams noting that the U.S. appears unfastened to making these "rough" frameworks alternatively than "full" deals.

One of the countries tapped arsenic perchance being adjacent to onslaught a woody is India, says Trinh Nguyen, elder economist for emerging Asia astatine Natixis CIB. The agriculture assemblage could look arsenic an obstacle, arsenic India "will find it hard to let US marketplace entree without home backlash," she suggested.

"The Vietnamese authorities person been wide astir their intent to negociate with the US, adjacent earlier the reciprocal announcements were made successful April," she said by email, adding that the aforesaid was existent for different determination economies similar Indonesia and Malaysia.

"Compared to these economies, the lawsuit with [the] EU has not ever been creaseless sailing and the US has been much nationalist successful its disapproval of the EU astatine antithetic times successful the past fewer months," Venkateswaran said.

Natixis CIB's Nguyen meantime added that "Vietnam shows that it is precise hard for Europe to get what it wants — which is tariff-free."

Some duties are apt to beryllium imposed, she said, and portion the EU could retaliate by applying adjacent tariffs connected the U.S., Nguyen expects the EU to hold to a 10% tariff and "try to instrumentality wins connected the sectoral side."

Trade negotiations betwixt the EU and U.S. person been challenging and dilatory to develop, with sources telling CNBC that a bare-bones "political" woody with scant archetypal details whitethorn beryllium the the EU's champion anticipation astatine this point. Analysts and economists person besides expressed uncertainty astir the likelihood of a commercialized agreement, fixed cardinal sticking points similar large tech regulation, taxation, and broadly mismatched satellite views.

Trump has called for tariffs as precocious arsenic 50% connected the EU, portion the bloc has threatened wide-ranging countermeasures, which person besides been paused until adjacent week.