What we know about Pakistan-Afghanistan ceasefire, will it hold?

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Pakistan and Afghanistan person agreed to an “immediate ceasefire” aft a week of deadly clashes on their border, arsenic the ties betwixt the 2 South Asian neighbours plunged to their lowest constituent since the Taliban returned to powerfulness successful 2021.

Both countries agreed to halt warring and enactment towards “lasting bid and stability” aft bid talks successful Doha, the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs said connected Sunday, astir the woody it mediated alongside Turkiye.

What bash we cognize astir the ceasefire?

After a circular of negotiations betwixt Pakistan and Afghanistan successful the Qatari capital, Doha, “the 2 sides agreed to an contiguous ceasefire and the constitution of mechanisms to consolidate lasting bid and stableness betwixt the 2 countries,” Qatar’s Foreign Ministry announced successful a statement.

“The 2 parties besides agreed to clasp follow-up meetings successful the coming days to guarantee the sustainability of the ceasefire and verify its implementation successful a reliable and sustainable manner, frankincense contributing to achieving information and stableness successful some countries,” the connection added.

Following the Qatari ministry’s statement, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif posted confirmation of the woody connected X.

“Cross-border coercion from Afghan territory volition cease immediately,” Asif wrote. “Both countries volition respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

Asif further confirmed a “follow-up gathering betwixt the delegations is scheduled to instrumentality spot successful the Turkish metropolis of Istanbul connected October 25 to sermon the matters successful detail.”

Residents region debris from a location damaged by attacks.

Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said the truce was “the archetypal measurement successful the close direction”.

“We look guardant to the constitution of a factual and verifiable monitoring mechanism, successful the adjacent gathering to beryllium hosted by Turkiye, to code the menace of coercion emanating from Afghan ungraded towards Pakistan. It is important to enactment each efforts successful spot to forestall immoderate further nonaccomplishment of lives,” helium posted connected X.

Zabihullah Mujahid, the Taliban spokesperson, said that nether the presumption of the agreement, “both sides reaffirm their committedness to peace, communal respect, and the attraction of beardown and constructive neighbourly relations.

“Both sides are committed to resolving issues and disputes done dialogue,” Mujahid said successful a station connected X. “It has been decided that neither state volition undertake immoderate hostile actions against the other, nor volition they enactment groups carrying retired attacks against the Government of Pakistan.”

Mujahid said the countries person agreed connected refraining “from targeting each other’s information forces, civilians, oregon captious infrastructure”.

Mujahid, arsenic good arsenic Dar and Asif, thanked Qatar and Turkiye for their relation successful facilitating the talks that led to the ceasefire.

Why Pakistan has blamed the Taliban for attacks wrong its territory?

Pakistan wants the Taliban to rein successful equipped groups specified arsenic the Taliban Pakistan, known by the acronym TTP, and others blamed for carrying retired attacks connected its territory. Armed attacks by TTP rebels and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), which operates successful the resource-rich Balochistan province, person surged successful caller years, with 2025 connected way to go the deadliest year.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, which borderline Afghanistan, person borne the brunt of the violence.

At slightest 2,414 deaths person been recorded successful the archetypal 3 quarters of this year, according to the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), an Islamabad-based deliberation tank.

Pakistan and the Taliban, erstwhile allies implicit shared determination information interests, person fallen retired arsenic Islamabad claims that Afghanistan is giving haven to the TTP – an allegation Kabul has rejected.

Kabul and Islamabad person besides clashed implicit their planetary border, called the Durand Line, which is recognised by Pakistan but not by Afghanistan.

TTP’s ideology is aligned with the Taliban successful Afghanistan. However, the groups person antithetic goals and run independently.

Pakistan has sought assurances from the Taliban that these groups, which run successful the porous borderline regions with Afghanistan, volition not beryllium allowed to run freely and that the attacks crossed the borderline volition cease.

In a station aboriginal connected Sunday, Mujahid, the Taliban spokesman, stressed that the Afghan ungraded “will not beryllium allowed to beryllium utilized against immoderate different country”. It is “the accordant stance of the Islamic Emirate” helium said, referring to the authoritative sanction of the Afghanistan government.

“It does not enactment immoderate onslaught against anyone and has ever emphasised this stance,” helium posted connected X.

People bring an injured antheral for aesculapian attraction astatine a hospital.

Islamabad besides wants the Taliban to forestall the regrouping oregon enlargement of anti-Pakistan networks within Afghanistan, which the authorities considers a menace to Pakistan’s stableness and broader determination strategy.

Abdullah Baheer, a governmental expert based successful Kabul, said the bombing of Afghanistan and sidesplitting of civilians is “a problematic model”.

“Show maine 1 portion of grounds that shows they deed immoderate TTP operative successful Afghanistan successful the past week of bombing, contempt the 50-odd dormant and 550 injured,” helium told Al Jazeera.

He added that the TTP is simply a section rebel radical wrong Pakistan that acold precedes the Taliban’s coming to powerfulness successful Afghanistan. “Are you expecting the Taliban to travel distant and halt the TTP from pursuing immoderate of its governmental oregon subject goals?” helium asked.

“Let’s instrumentality the statement that TTP are operating from harmless havens wrong Afghanistan. The question is, you mistake power implicit a radical that is an autarkic radical to an grade of controlling them,” helium added.

As antecedently mentioned, the Taliban denies providing harmless haven to TTP wrong Afghanistan’s borders.

Why the spike successful attacks wrong Pakistan?

Islamabad was the premier backer of the Taliban aft it was removed by US-led NATO troops successful 2001. It was besides accused of providing a haven to Taliban fighters arsenic they waged an equipped rebellion against the United States’ concern of Afghanistan for 20 years.

But relations person soured implicit the surge successful attacks wrong Pakistan.

The TTP has re-emerged arsenic 1 of Pakistan’s biggest nationalist information threats, arsenic it has conducted much than 600 attacks against Pakistani forces successful the past year, according to a study by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), an autarkic nonprofit.

According to the CRSS, the Islamabad-based deliberation tank, the archetypal three-quarters of this twelvemonth person seen a 46 percent surge successful unit compared with past year.

The unit attributed to the TTP had decreased from its highest successful the precocious 2000s and aboriginal 2010s aft Islamabad progressive the equipped groups successful talks and addressed immoderate of their demands successful 2021, which see the merchandise of their members from situation and an extremity to subject operations successful the tribal areas.

The TTP besides demanded the reversal of the 2018 merger of the tribal portion with the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. A stricter imposition of their mentation of Islamic instrumentality is besides 1 of their demands.

A period aft the Taliban took implicit Kabul successful August 2021, it mediated talks betwixt the Pakistani subject and the TTP, a determination endorsed and pushed by Imran Khan, Pakistan’s then-prime minister. But Khan, who championed talks with the equipped groups, was removed arsenic premier curate successful April 2022.

Violence surged aft the TTP unilaterally walked retired of the ceasefire woody successful 2022, aft accusing Islamabad of renewed subject operations successful the region.

Since its founding successful 2007, the TTP has targeted civilians and instrumentality enforcement personnel, resulting successful thousands of deaths. Their deadliest onslaught came successful December 2014, erstwhile they targeted the Army Public School (APS) successful Peshawar, sidesplitting much than 130 students.

The radical remains banned successful Pakistan and has been designated a “terrorist” radical by the US.

The Pakistani service has conducted aggregate operations to destruct the group, but has struggled to execute its extremity arsenic fighters person utilized the porous borderline to determination backmost and distant betwixt the neighbouring countries.

Baheer, the governmental analyst, said that determination are “no winners successful war. There are lone losers”.

“This logic of bombing Afghanistan into submission didn’t enactment for the United States for 20 years of their occupation. Why bash we deliberation it volition enactment now?” the Kabul-based expert asked.

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