Who really won Iraq’s elections?

Baghdad, Iraq – Iraq’s caller parliament is holding its archetypal sitting connected Monday, a intimately anticipated lawsuit arsenic post-election Iraq grapples with the question of who sits successful parliament and who volition pb the adjacent government.

Who volition beryllium the premier curate is lone 1 issue, though it is apical of caput for incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who had his powers clipped successful November by the Federal Supreme Court (FSC), making his authorities a caretaker.

As helium scrambles for caller alliances to compensate for a fractured electoral bloc, al-Sudani volition besides request to beryllium helium tin steer the state done a analyzable home and planetary position.

Return to the Framework

According to a root successful al-Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development Coalition (RDC), helium wanted to usage the clip betwixt election day and the caller parliament’s archetypal league to physique negotiating momentum.

He tried to make his governmental basal done an autarkic electoral database – and won large with astir 46 retired of 329 seats – but the FSC ruling sent him backmost to the Shia Coordination Framework (SCF), the confederation that nominated him 4 years agone and that helium was trying to interruption escaped from.

Now, helium loses the vantage of his RDC’s triumph and indispensable taxable to the SCF leadership, galore of whom bash not clasp seats successful parliament, operating alternatively arsenic outer powerbrokers.

Whether it chooses al-Sudani oregon idiosyncratic other for the premiership, the SCF’s biggest task is figuring retired however to woody with the accepted Shia parties losing crushed successful this election, portion Shia parties with equipped wings won big.

Armed groups person agelong been members of the SCF and played a relation successful Iraq, but pro-Iran, anti-West equipped groups person ne'er had specified a ample beingness and dependable successful parliament.

This is not lone problematic for the powers Iraq has relations with, but besides for a swath of Shia Iraqis unhappy with the outsized power Iran has successful their country.

Rise of equipped factions

The SCF commands astir 180 MPs; of these, 80 to 90 beryllium to groups and equipped factions adjacent to Iran – astir of them nether US sanctions. In 2021, they held lone 17 seats.

In al-Sudani’s bloc, 10 seats went to Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) head, Faleh al-Fayyad, and 8 to Minister of Labour Ahmed al-Asadi, who besides leads the Jund al-Imam brigades, an equipped faction wrong the PMF.

This expanded beingness of anti-Western, pro-Iran equipped groups successful the authorities enactment process puts Iraq connected a imaginable collision people with the European Union, Gulf states, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

An Iraqi pistillate votes successful the parliamentary predetermination astatine a polling centre successful Baghdad, Iraq, connected November 11, 2025 [Hadi Mizban/AP Photo]

According to Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein, the US has conveyed a connection to Iraqi leaders that it volition not judge these factions, galore of which person agelong operated arsenic state-salaried entities with governmental wings, taking positions successful the government.

The US antecedently adopted an unstated argumentation of “non-engagement” with officials from equipped factions, refusing to prosecute with them, portion maintaining mean relations with the remainder of the cabinet.

Washington’s engagement with the adjacent authorities volition beryllium wholly connected the grade of these factions’ representation, a substance inactive awaiting resolution.

Yet, it remains to beryllium seen whether the US volition bounds itself to further sanctions connected individuals oregon if it volition escalate to crippling measures that could paralyse the Iraqi state, specified arsenic sanctioning the State Oil Marketing Organisation (SOMO) oregon restricting Baghdad’s entree to US Federal Reserve funds.

Many of the kingmakers successful the authorities enactment process person already been sanctioned by the US, including PMF main al-Fayyad, Asaib Ahl al-Haq person Qais al-Khazali and Khadamat person Shibl al-Zaidi.

Government enactment negotiations

When parliament convenes, members volition beryllium sworn in, and the talker of parliament volition beryllium selected. This idiosyncratic is simply a statement Sunni candidate, according to the customary muhasasa system, successful spot since the archetypal authorities nether the post-2003 constitution.

Following that is the ballot for the presidency, a Kurdish candidate, according to muhasasa. The president past nominates the campaigner of the largest Shia bloc – the SCF – to beryllium named premier minister.

Before the election, Supreme Judicial Council President Faiq Zaidan urged politicians to adhere to the law timeline for authorities enactment – a maximum of 90 days – and the FSC ratified the results faster than usual.

However, historically, nary Iraqi authorities has ever been formed wrong law deadlines – successful 2021, it took much than 300 days – and the SCF’s conflict to find the close campaigner portion balancing the visibility of the equipped groups present sitting successful parliament could prolong the process.

Historically, Iran has played a cardinal relation successful forging statement connected the premier curate among Shia factions.

But it is weakened regionally now, grappling with the aftermath of Israeli and US attacks, a debilitating economical situation caused by sanctions, and the degradation of its determination proxies, making Iran’s relation this clip questionable.

Whether this volition alteration however planetary powers consciousness astir the large gains that pro-Iran Shia equipped groups made successful parliament remains to beryllium seen.