A instrumentality of Japanese manga reads a comic successful his location successful Kamisu successful Japan's Ibaraki Prefecture.
Philip Fong | Afp | Getty Images
Visitor involvement successful Japan plunged successful June, amid a prophecy successful a manga that predicted a "disaster" would onslaught Japan successful July 2025.
The prediction was successful a 2021 reprint of a Japanese comic book, oregon manga, titled "Watashi ga Mita Mirai, Kanzenban" (which translates to "The Future That I Saw, Complete Edition") by creator Ryo Tatsuki.
In the archetypal printing of the publication successful 1999, the screen leafage referenced a "disaster successful March 2011."
In March 2011, Japan suffered its astir almighty earthquake connected record, the Great Tohoku Earthquake, which caused astir 20,000 deaths and the Fukushima Daiichi atomic disaster.
The Amazon listing for the reprint stated that the writer had "new prophetic dreams" including the "real catastrophe volition travel successful July 2025," according to a Google translation.
CN Yuen, managing manager of Hong Kong-based question bureau WWPKG told CNBC that the rumor was wide circulated successful Hong Kong, wherever it dispersed implicit mainstream media, TV networks and done YouTube influencers.
Visitors arrivals from Hong Kong plunged 33.4% twelvemonth connected twelvemonth successful June, pursuing an earlier 11.2% driblet successful May, according to Japan's National Tourism Organization.
Yuen said his bureau has seen a 50% alteration successful bookings and inquiries successful April and May to Japan from past year.
Tourist arrivals from different Asian countries besides experienced slower growth. Arrivals from South Korea roseate conscionable 3.8% successful June compared with May's 11.8%. Arrivals from Taiwan slowed importantly arsenic well, from a 15.5% summation successful May to 1.8% successful June.
Overseas visitors to Japan grew 24%, connected average, from January to May of this year, compared to 2024. But June arrivals lone saw a 7.6% increase, according to Japan's question statistics.
'Perfect storm'
WWPKG's Yuen said helium is utilized to question downturns related to earthy disasters, which usually extremity aft the incidental is over.
But "this time, it's different, due to the fact that thing happened actually. It's lone a rumor, oregon prophecy," helium told CNBC. "This is the archetypal clip we've seen specified an incident."
Hong Kong and Japanese media reported earlier successful July that Hong Kong airlines chopped flights to immoderate Japanese cities, including Nagoya.
A January study from Japan's Asahi Shimbun, citing the country's Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, besides warned that the likelihood of a megaquake successful the adjacent 30 years had risen to 80%—a improvement that, combined with the prediction, created a "perfect storm" to deter travelers, Yuen said.
However, Japan's Meteorological Agency said: "It should beryllium noted that the issuance of accusation indicating elevated imaginable for a Nankai Trough earthquake does not needfully mean that 1 volition really strike."
Asian tourists much affected than Western ones
JNTO information showed that the stock of Asian tourists fell twelvemonth connected twelvemonth successful June, but that of Western countries rose.
Experts CNBC spoke to gave assorted reasons, including taste ones.
"Manga is not conscionable entertainment; it is wide work crossed property groups and carries a spot of taste authorization successful immoderate Asian societies," said Zimbayah Kamble, a elder lecturer for hospitality astatine James Cook University.
That, combined with memories of past disasters and the world of Japan's seismic vulnerability, mean that specified warnings "resonate strongly" successful the region, she said.
Kiattipoom Kiatkawsin, subordinate prof of hospitality and tourism absorption from the Singapore Institute of Management, said the accelerated dispersed of the rumors done societal media platforms and the collectivist quality of galore Asian societies led to a societal amplification of perceived risk.
"This means that adjacent if immoderate individuals person doubts, the corporate effect of their assemblage oregon peers tin importantly power their decisions, starring to wide behavioral changes, specified arsenic question cancelations," Kiatkawsin said.
"In this case, a fictional communicative amplified by societal media could person created a compelling, if scientifically unfounded crushed to defer travel," helium said.
But some experts besides pointed to a much mean reason: the flexibility of short-haul travel.
Kiatkawsin said the costs of canceling the flights and edifice bookings are not perceived arsenic a obstruction anymore.
"If they bash not question to Japan this time, they tin spell different clip without overmuch hassle to put again," helium added.
Kiatkawsin said helium does not expect the prediction volition impact Japan's wide question outlook, fixed that the prediction is restricted to the period of July.
— CNBC's Kaela Ling contributed to this story.
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