Why did US let Dodik off the hook and hand Europe’s ailing heart to Russia?

In a stunning geopolitical reversal, connected October 29, the United States abruptly lifted sanctions connected Bosnian Serb person and genocide denier Milorad Dodik – a known Kremlin state who has agelong undermined Bosnia and Herzegovina’s sovereignty. The decision, which contradicts years of US policy, intriguingly coincides with the opening of nonstop dealings betwixt Russia and Bosnia’s Serb entity, Republika Srpska.

The Russians, who had agelong treated Belgrade arsenic the lone authorization representing each Serbs crossed the region, person earnestly undermined Serbia’s authorization precocious by acknowledging Dodik arsenic the rightful typical of Bosnia’s Serb population.

The Trump administration’s unexpected determination to assistance sanctions connected Dodik astatine a clip erstwhile helium is gathering a strategical narration with Moscow signals a imaginable expansive bargain betwixt satellite powers, raising alarming questions astir what Washington gained successful speech for efficaciously ceding fractional of Bosnia to Russia’s sphere of influence.

The unexplained reversal

The US unexpectedly removed sanctions from Dodik and his network. This was a sudden, unexplained reversal of a longstanding policy. For years, the US targeted him for trying to destabilise Bosnia, denying genocide, and pushing for secession. Removing him from the sanctions database appears to springiness a blessing to the denial of the Bosnian genocide and creates a wide way for Bosnia’s breakup.

This determination creates a glaring paradox successful US overseas policy.

Dodik is 1 of the Kremlin’s astir overt allies successful Europe, openly celebrating his ties with Moscow and advocating for Russian interests. However, the US keeps beardown sanctions connected galore different radical and entities for acold weaker links to Russia.

The perplexing determination to assistance sanctions connected him exposes a troubling inconsistency successful Washington’s attack to Russia, 1 that undermines the credibility of its broader sanctions regime.

Citing palmy lobbying by Dodik arsenic the crushed for this reversal is simply a anemic and unconvincing justification. According to estimates, Dodik’s lobbying efforts successful the US person grown to 2 oregon 3 times the $30m fig confirmed for 2017. The standard of his spending, however, is inactive a pittance compared with the immense sums deployed by different nations and involvement groups that consistently neglect to execute specified spectacular diplomatic victories.

Another mentation for the US argumentation displacement involves Bosnia’s mineral wealth, specifically lithium. This follows a May 21, 2025, connection by Dodik, who publically offered the mineral resources of the Bosnian Serb entity to the US successful speech for designation of Republika Srpska’s sovereignty.

This theory, however, contains a logical flaw: if the US’s superior involvement were lithium, maintaining sanctions would supply much nonstop power implicit the resources without needing to assistance Dodik anything. The inadequacy of this mentation powerfully suggests that much profound, undisclosed geopolitical calculations are astatine work, raising alarming questions astir the existent terms of this abrupt US retreat.

Moscow dominating Serbia

For a portion now, Serbia has been moving distant from Russia and towards the West.

On August 29, 2024, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic announced a $3bn deal with France to bargain 12 Rafale jets, signalling Belgrade’s displacement towards Western information alliances.

At a associated quality conference, French President Emmanuel Macron praised the statement arsenic “historic”, lauding Serbia’s “strategic courage” and reaffirming its European future. This did not spell unnoticed successful Moscow. In May 2025, Russia accused Serbia of stabbing Moscow successful the backmost for selling weapons to Ukraine. Furthermore, successful July, the Kremlin condemned Belgrade for considering joining Western sanctions against Russia.

On the time earlier the sanctions connected him were lifted, alternatively than courting Washington, Dodik was successful Minsk embracing Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. By gathering Dodik a time earlier US sanctions connected him were lifted, Moscow declared a caller Balkan strategy that deliberately sidelines Serbia.

Back successful September, Russia’s overseas curate described Dodik arsenic the “legitimately elected president” of the Bosnian entity Republika Srpska. But now, the authoritative website of Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs describes Dodik arsenic “the person of Bosnian Serbs successful Bosnia and Herzegovina.” This caller designation serves aggregate strategical purposes and marks a wide geopolitical shift.

First, it undermines the sovereignty of Bosnia by asserting a nationalist alternatively than a purely determination mandate for Dodik’s authority.

Second, it straight challenges Serbia’s ambition, embodied successful the conception of Srpski svet (Serbian World), to enactment arsenic the cardinal patron of each Serbs, asserting alternatively Russia’s assertion to beryllium the eventual arbiter of Serb governmental affairs. Belgrade’s Srpski svet mirrors the Kremlin’s Ruski mir (Russian World) doctrine, with some aiming to unite taste and linguistic kin nether a transnational taste identity. Ultimately, these ideologies service to grow governmental power and warrant involution successful neighbouring states nether the pretext of protecting their diasporas.

The astir potent awesome of this displacement came from Dodik himself. He publically snubbed Vucic by bluntly declaring that Belgrade would person nary accidental successful the Republika Srpska. Vucic responded by citing the affront: “The different night, I saw that successful Banja Luka they accidental that nary 1 from Belgrade volition springiness them orders.”

For years, Serbia has positioned itself arsenic the paternal guardian of each Serbs, with Republika Srpska operating firmly wrong its governmental orbit. Dodik’s connection shattered this dynamic, announcing that the Serb-majority entity present answers to a antithetic patron.

Moscow’s determination has publically divided Dodik and Vucic, weakening Serbia’s power. It shows Russia volition present woody straight with Bosnian separatists, ignoring the Serbian government. For Vucic, who tries to support ties with some Europe and Russia, this is simply a worst-case scenario. It proves his power is nary longer needed and that Russia is present moving done Banja Luka alternatively of Belgrade, severely reducing Serbia’s importance.

Moscow’s powerfulness play: Annexing Europe’s ailing heart

The US determination to assistance sanctions has efficaciously allowed Moscow to instrumentality successful Republika Srpska arsenic a caller Russian territory. The epoch of indirect power is over; the Bosnian entity is present being governed straight from the Kremlin, fundamentally altering the equilibrium of powerfulness successful Europe.

A Russian subject footprint successful the Balkans is besides expanding. While Russia maintains unofficial bases successful Serbia, it is present apt to found 1 successful Banja Luka, the de facto superior of the Bosnian Serb entity, arsenic well.

Bosnia, located successful the bosom of Europe, is itself shaped similar a heart. For 30 years, the European Union had the accidental to heal Europe’s ailing heart. The EU failed because, astatine its ain core, it is afflicted by deep-seated racism: Islamophobia and Russophobia. The terms for this hatred is present clear. Half of Europe’s bosom — fractional of Bosnia — has efficaciously go a caller Russian territory, a territory from which launching missiles would beryllium acold much businesslike than from Kaliningrad.

The planetary chessboard: A tacit US-Russia understanding?

The abrupt lifting of US sanctions connected Dodik, followed instantly by his strategical clasp with Lavrov, is champion understood not arsenic a US argumentation nonaccomplishment but arsenic a calculated determination connected the planetary chessboard. Lavrov’s masterstroke was to publically empower Dodik astatine the nonstop disbursal of Belgrade, a wide awesome to Serbia that its humanities relation arsenic the superior patron of Bosnian Serbs is over. In this caller alignment, Moscow demonstrates that it holds the cardinal to powerfulness successful the Bosnian entity Republika Srpska, forcefully reminding Serbia who genuinely commands the loyalties of its expected kin.

This powerfulness play exploits Serbia’s cardinal and precarious dilemma. The federation is perpetually torn betwixt its economical and governmental ambitions for EU integration and its deep-seated historical, cultural, and spiritual ties to Russia. Lavrov’s determination tightens the Russian noose, forcing Belgrade into a much subservient position.

This leads to the astir unsettling theory: that the US acquiescence is portion of a tacit great-power trade-off. The timing and incongruity of the sanctions assistance suggest it is not a retreat but a strategical bargain. Washington whitethorn person deliberately ceded its power successful Bosnia, accepting an expanded Russian sphere of power successful the Balkans, successful speech for a strategical concession from Moscow elsewhere — possibly related to Ukraine, the Middle East, oregon different arena. This fits a cynical humanities pattern: large powers often disregard section commitments to service their ain concealed deals.

The unanswered question and the fallout

The abrupt US authorisation lift, followed instantly by Dodik’s pivot to Moscow, leaves 1 chilling, unanswered question: what did Washington unafraid successful instrumentality for efficaciously gifting fractional of Bosnia to Russia’s sphere of influence? This opaque bargain sacrifices decades of principled Balkan argumentation for an undisclosed geopolitical price, undermining US credibility and the fragile Dayton peace.

The fallout is clear: emboldened secessionists, a destabilised Europe, and a unsafe awesome that hard-won antiauthoritarian norms are simply currency successful a caller large game, leaving allies betrayed and adversaries triumphant.

The views expressed successful this nonfiction are the author’s ain and bash not needfully bespeak Al Jazeera’s editorial policy.