Why Ethiopia’s Tigray could be on the brink of another conflict

An eerily acquainted acceptable of headlines is making the rounds successful Ethiopia, troubling galore successful the fragile, bluish Tigray region.

Successive delegations of civilian nine and spiritual leaders have, successful caller weeks, travelled to the Tigrayan capital, Mekelle, for “dialogue”. For some, it is simply a reminder of the events that played retired successful the last weeks earlier Tigray descended into warfare successful November 2020.

That warfare near 600,000 radical dormant and immoderate 5 cardinal displaced. It brought planetary attraction to Ethiopia’s fractured authorities and tarnished the estimation of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who had won a Nobel Peace Prize for mending long-severed ties with neighbouring Eritrea.

A ceasefire 2 years aboriginal was expected to extremity the war; instead, analysts say, another struggle mightiness beryllium looming. This time, it could impact not conscionable the Tigrayan determination authorities, but besides Eritrea, and potentially, that country’s ain allies. It is not a struggle that the portion tin withstand, experts fear.

“We are present astatine a constituent wherever we are each frightened astatine different struggle successful Tigray, and with Eritrea,” expert Abel Abate Demissie of the Chatham House deliberation vessel successful the United Kingdom told Al Jazeera. “It would beryllium highly devastating.”

Fractured agreements signed backmost successful November 2022 that ended the warfare betwixt the determination Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the national authorities are astatine the basal of the tensions. However, it is the deepening resentment betwixt neighbours Eritrea and Ethiopia that analysts accidental is the scariest improvement this time.

Ethiopia is simply a cardinal subordinate successful East Africa, and warfare determination could derail determination stableness arsenic neighbouring Sudan, South Sudan, and Somalia woody with ongoing equipped conflict. It could besides impact Africa’s self-reliance successful the aviation sector, arsenic Addis Ababa is 1 of Africa’s astir important aerial question hubs.

Internally displaced radical locomotion done the Sebacare campy connected the outskirts of Mekelle, Tigray region, Ethiopia, connected February 12, 2025 [Alexander Mamo/AP Photo]

Peace statement pushed aside

War broke retired successful Tigray successful November 2020 aft Ethiopia’s Abiy accused the TPLF of attacking a bid centre of the nationalist army, the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF).

For decades, the TPLF dominated the ruling conjugation successful Addis Ababa successful what experts accidental was an autocratic system. The radical was disliked successful astir each 10 regions of Ethiopia, a state wherever regions signifier on taste lines. Eritrea, which fought a borderline warfare with TPLF-dominated Ethiopia successful 1998, besides had gripes with the party. When Abiy, an Oromo, was elected successful 2018, though, helium established peaceful ties with Eritrea and acceptable astir implementing reforms for a stronger cardinal government. The TPLF, however, saw Abiy’s moves arsenic a menace to its powerfulness and sought to overthrow his government.

Addis Ababa, successful its subject effect to the TPLF attack, teamed up with different TPLF-opposed entities, including the Amhara service and allied militias, arsenic good arsenic Eritrean forces. All sides were accused of attacking civilians; however, rights groups besides accused the national authorities of deliberately blocking assistance to Tigrayans and causing a near-famine. The United States called attacks by Amhara militias “ethnic cleansing” portion galore Tigrayans assertion the warfare was a genocide. Many were forcibly displaced from occidental Tigray, which the Amhara portion claims. Thousands of women were raped.

In November 2022, Addis Ababa and TPLF signed the Pretoria bid agreement. The ceasefire woody mandated that the TPLF disarm and a caller authorities beryllium jointly appointed by some sides. It besides mandated that Addis Ababa oversee the harmless instrumentality of displaced radical and that each third-party armies withdraw.

However, a powerfulness conflict emerged successful the TPLF betwixt the Abiy-appointed Tigray mayor, Getachew Reda, and the TPLF head, Debretsion Gebremichael. It began erstwhile Getachew attempted to instrumentality the disarmament clause. Core TPLF members, however, accused him of being a sellout. In March, the TPLF faction aligned with Debretsion staged a coup, seized the Mekelle vigor station, and forced Getachew to permission Mekelle for Addis Ababa. The coup was a nonstop affront to Abiy, analysts say. Although helium has since appointed different interim president from Debretsion’s camp, Addis Ababa and TPLF person traded insults and threatened attacks.

“Both sides person downplayed their responsibility,” said Abel of Chatham House, speaking of however some sides look to person moved distant from the Pretoria agreement. The TPLF accuses Addis Ababa of failing to resettle people, with immoderate 1.6 cardinal inactive displaced, and is threatening to forcibly instrumentality them. It besides blames the authorities for revoking its licence arsenic a governmental party, though the nationalist electoral assemblage says it is due to the fact that the TPLF has failed to clasp a wide assembly arsenic it antecedently mandated.

Addis Ababa, connected the different hand, has faulted the TPLF for failing to disarm, and also accuses the enactment of allying with Eritrea.

In a code successful parliament successful July, Abiy urged spiritual leaders and civilian nine members to pass TPLF leaders against escalation, due to the fact that erstwhile struggle starts, “it would beryllium excessively late”.

Getachew, who has been expelled from the TPLF, has formed a caller party, the Tigray Democratic Solidarity Party. Analysts accidental it is imaginable that the enactment mightiness beryllium installed successful Tigray instead.

Meanwhile, Amhara militias and the TPLF proceed to clash. Many young radical who joined the TPLF successful the 2020 warfare person defected to signifier caller militias allied with Getachew’s faction and attempted an onslaught connected the TPLF successful July.

Troops successful Eritrean uniforms locomotion adjacent the municipality of Adigrat, Ethiopia, March 18, 2021 [Baz Ratner/Reuters]

The occupation with Eritrea

Ethiopia’s perpetual entanglement with Eritrea has taken connected a antithetic magnitude since 2020, with some again astatine loggerheads.

Cracks appeared successful their parley aft Abiy’s authorities agreed to bid with the TPLF. President Isaias Afwerki, who has been Eritrea’s de facto person since 1994, was reportedly angered arsenic helium did not consciousness sufficiently consulted, adjacent arsenic Eritrean troops are inactive successful Tigray.

A bigger problem, however, is Abiy’s comments since 2023 astir landlocked Ethiopia’s “existential” request to entree a seaport. Asmara has taken those statements arsenic a menace that Addis Ababa might invade and prehend the coastal areas it antecedently mislaid aft Eritrea fought to secede successful 1993. In 1 comment, Abiy described Ethiopia losing oversea entree arsenic a “historical mistake”.

Since then, Eritrea has been gathering up defences, sending subject tanks to the border, according to analysts, with Ethiopia doing the same. In February, Eritrea enactment retired calls for conscription into the army. Asmara is besides reportedly successful cahoots with the TPLF to undermine Abiy, though officials contradict this.

Both sides bash not truly privation to spell to warfare and are simply posturing, expert Abel said. Eritrea would conscionable successful Addis Ababa a formidable enemy, and Ethiopia is not anxious to mar its estimation arsenic a increasing determination person wherever the African Union has its headquarters.

“The problem, though, is it lone takes 1 tiny enactment to ignite a war, adjacent if some sides don’t privation it,” the expert said.

In March, Abiy attempted to downplay the tensions portion speaking successful parliament.

“Our volition is to negociate based connected the rule of springiness and take,” helium said, implying that immoderate larboard deals would beryllium commercial. “Our program is not to combat but to enactment unneurotic and turn together.”

It is not lone Asmara that has been angered by Abiy’s bid to find a port. Neighbouring Somalia astir declared warfare past twelvemonth aft Abiy sealed a larboard woody with the self-declared authorities of Somaliland. Somalia, which views Somaliland arsenic portion of its territory, was furious, but Turkiye, Somalia’s adjacent ally, mediated repairs betwixt the 2 successful December. Before they reconciled, Eritrea held meetings with Somalia, arsenic good arsenic Egypt, which is besides aggravated with Addis Ababa implicit the Grand Renaissance Dam, which it says volition bounds its h2o proviso from the Nile.

Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki and Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed during the inauguration ceremonial marking the reopening of the Eritrean Embassy successful Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, July 16, 2018 [Tiksa Negeri/Reuters]

Can each sides find peace?

Analysts accidental the enactment of uncovering communal crushed rests mostly with Abiy arsenic Asmara, for one, is not beardown connected diplomacy, and the TPLF appears much assured with reported Eritrean backing.

The large chartless is whether Abiy is consenting and capable to reconstruct ties with either the TPLF oregon Eritrea without either broadside feeling sidelined. In the background, arsenic well, are the Amhara militias who are inactive contiguous successful disputed occidental Tigray. Any attempts to region them could pb to conflict.

In immoderate case, Abiy is already suffering a situation of legitimacy, expert Micheal Tsegay Assefa concluded successful a little for the Atlas Institute for International Affairs.

“Regional leaders, peculiarly from Amhara and Oromia, progressively question the cardinal government’s capableness to unafraid bid and negociate inter-regional conflicts,” helium wrote, owed to Addis Ababa’s inability to enforce the bid deal.

Meanwhile, arsenic the sabre-rattling continues, Tigrayans are erstwhile again fearing for their lives. The caller tensions person sent scores of radical fleeing from the region, with immoderate risking deadly routes to get retired of the state altogether.

Researchers accidental Ethiopian migrants attempting, and dying, to participate Yemen via the Gulf of Aden progressively look to beryllium from Tigray, based connected the covering oregon jewellery recovered by rescuers during shipwrecks.

Analysts accidental different warfare simply indispensable not happen.

“Conflict lone needs 1 broadside to spell rogue,” Abel said. “I truly anticipation that sanity volition prevail and each sides volition use wisdom.”