Why India likely won’t return Hasina to face Bangladesh death penalty

3 weeks ago 12

New Delhi, India – Shima Akhter, 24, was successful the mediate of shot signifier erstwhile her person stopped the league to interruption immoderate quality for her: Sheikh Hasina, the fugitive erstwhile premier curate of Bangladesh, had been sentenced to death.

To the University of Dhaka student, it felt similar a infinitesimal of vindication.

Several of Akhter’s friends were killed successful a crackdown connected protesters by Hasina’s information forces past twelvemonth earlier Hasina yet discontinue bureau and fled Bangladesh. The International Crimes Tribunal successful Dhaka, which tried the 78-year-old person for crimes against humanity, sentenced Hasina to decease aft a months-long proceedings that recovered her blameworthy of ordering a deadly crackdown connected the uprising past year.

“The fascist Hasina thought she could not beryllium defeated, that she could regularisation forever,” Akhter said from Dhaka. “A decease condemnation for her is simply a measurement towards justness for our martyrs.”

But, Akhter added, the sentencing itself wasn’t enough.

“We privation to spot her hanged present successful Dhaka!” she said.

That won’t hap easily.

Hasina, who fled Dhaka arsenic protesters stormed her location successful August 2024, remains acold from the gallows for now, surviving successful exile successful New Delhi.

Hasina’s beingness successful India contempt repeated requests from Bangladesh to manus her implicit has been a cardinal root of friction betwixt the South Asian neighbours implicit the past 15 months. Now, with Hasina formally convicted of crimes against humanity and sentenced to death, those tensions are expected to emergence to caller heights. Even though India is anxious to physique a concern with a post-Hasina Dhaka, respective geopolitical analysts said they cannot envision a script successful which New Delhi turns the erstwhile premier curate implicit to Bangladesh to look the decease penalty.

“How tin New Delhi propulsion her towards her death?” erstwhile Indian High Commissioner to Dhaka Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty said.

‘Highly unfriendly act’

Hasina, Bangladesh’s longest serving premier minister, is the eldest girl of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who led the warfare for independency from Pakistan successful 1971.

She archetypal became premier curate successful 1996. Defeated successful the 2001 election, she was retired of powerfulness until she won again successful 2009. She remained successful bureau for 15 years aft that, winning elections that absorption parties often boycotted oregon were banned from contesting successful amid a broader hardline turn. Thousands of radical were forcibly disappeared. Many were killed extrajudicially. Torture cases became common, and her opponents were jailed without trials.

Meanwhile, her authorities touted its economical grounds to warrant her rule. Bangladesh, which erstwhile US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger had erstwhile called a “basket case” economy, has successful caller years witnessed accelerated gross home merchandise maturation and has outpaced India’s per capita income.

But successful July 2024, a pupil protestation that initially began implicit authorities occupation quotas for descendants of those who fought successful the 1971 warfare of independency from Pakistan escalated into a nationwide telephone for Hasina to spell aft a brutal crackdown by information forces.

Student protesters clashed with equipped constabulary successful Dhaka, and astir 1,400 radical were killed, according to estimates by the United Nations.

Hasina, a longtime state of India, fled to New Delhi connected August 5, 2024, and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus took implicit arsenic interim leader. Yunus’s authorities has since moved to physique person ties with Pakistan amid tensions with India, including implicit Dhaka’s insistence that New Delhi expel Hasina.

On Tuesday, Dhaka’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs raised the transportation against New Delhi further. The ministry cited an extradition statement with India and said it was an “obligatory responsibility” for New Delhi to guarantee Hasina’s instrumentality to Bangladesh. It added that it “would beryllium a highly unfriendly enactment and a disregard for justice” for India to proceed to supply Hasina refuge.

Political analysts successful India, however, pointed retired to Al Jazeera that an objection exists successful the extradition pact successful cases successful which the offence is “of a governmental character”.

“India understands this [Hasina’s case] to beryllium governmental vindictiveness of the ruling governmental forces successful Bangladesh,” said Sanjay Bhardwaj, a prof of South Asian studies astatine the Jawaharlal Nehru University successful New Delhi.

In New Delhi’s view, Bhardwaj told Al Jazeera, Bangladesh is contiguous ruled by “anti-India forces”. Yunus has often criticised India, and leaders of the protestation question that ousted Hasina person often blamed New Delhi for its enactment of the erstwhile premier minister.

Against this backdrop, “handing implicit Hasina would mean legitimising” those opposed to India, Bhardwaj added.

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaks with Bangladesh's Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina during her ceremonial reception astatine the Forecourt of India's Rashtrapati Bhavan Presidential Palace, successful New Delhi, India

‘India’s equations request change’

India said successful a Ministry of External Affairs connection that it has “noted the verdict” against Hasina and New Delhi “will ever prosecute constructively with each stakeholders”.

India said it “remains committed to the champion interests of the radical of Bangladesh, including successful peace, democracy, inclusion and stableness successful that country”.

Yet the narration betwixt New Delhi and Dhaka contiguous is frosty. The flourishing economic, information and governmental confederation that existed nether Hasina has present morphed into ties characterised by mistrust.

Chakravarty, the erstwhile Indian precocious commissioner, said helium does not expect that to alteration soon.

“Under this authorities [in Dhaka], the narration volition stay strained due to the fact that they volition support saying that India is not giving america Hasina back,” Chakravarty told Al Jazeera.

But helium said Bangladesh’s elections scheduled successful February could connection a caller opening. Even though Hasina’s Awami League is banned from contesting and astir different large governmental forces – including the biggest absorption force, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party – are critics of New Delhi’s, India volition find it easier to enactment with an elected administration.

“We cannot transportation connected similar this, and India needs an elected authorities successful Dhaka,” Chakravarty said of the tense ties betwixt the neighbours. “India should hold and ticker but not disturb the different arrangements, similar trade, successful goodwill.”

Sreeradha Datta, a prof specialising successful South Asian studies astatine India’s Jindal Global University, said India has been caught successful a hindrance implicit Hasina but is not unsighted to the fashionable resentment against her successful Bangladesh.

In an perfect scenario, she said, New Delhi would similar to spot the Awami League backmost successful powerfulness successful Bangladesh astatine immoderate constituent successful the future. “She [Hasina] is ever the champion stake guardant for India,” Datta told Al Jazeera.

But the reality, she said, is that India needs to judge that Bangladesh is improbable to ever springiness Hasina different chance. Instead, India needs to physique ties with different governmental forces successful Dhaka, Datta said.

“India ne'er had a bully equation with immoderate of the different stakeholders there. But that has to alteration now,” Datta said.

“Currently, we are astatine a precise fragile constituent successful the bilateral relations,” she added. “But we person to beryllium capable to determination past this peculiar docket [of Hasina’s extradition].”

Even if India and Bangladesh are nary longer allies, they request to “have civility towards each other”, Datta said.

Dividends of clinging to Hasina

Bangladesh and India stock adjacent taste ties and a 4,000km (2,485-mile) border. India is Bangladesh’s 2nd biggest trading spouse aft China. In fact, commercialized betwixt India and Bangladesh has accrued successful caller months contempt the tensions.

But adjacent though India has agelong insisted that its narration is with Bangladesh and not with immoderate enactment oregon person successful Dhaka, it was been closest with the Awami League.

After a bloody warfare of independency successful 1971, Hasina’s begetter took powerfulness successful East Pakistan, renamed Bangladesh, with India’s help. For India, the breakup of Pakistan solved a large strategical and information nightmare by turning its eastbound neighbour into a friend.

Hasina’s idiosyncratic narration with India besides goes backmost astir arsenic far.

She archetypal called New Delhi her location 50 years agone aft astir of her family, including Rahman, was assassinated successful a subject coup successful 1975. Only Hasina and her younger sister, Rehana, survived due to the fact that they were successful Germany.

Indira Gandhi, past India’s premier, offered the orphaned daughters of Rahman asylum. Hasina lived astatine aggregate residences successful New Delhi with her husband, MA Wazed; children; and Rehana and adjacent moonlighted astatine All India Radio’s Bangla service.

After six years successful exile, Hasina returned to Bangladesh to pb her father’s enactment and was elected to the premier minister’s bureau archetypal successful 1996 earlier her second, longer stint started successful 2009.

Under her rule, ties with India flourished, adjacent arsenic she faced home disapproval implicit brokering deals with Indian firms seen arsenic unfair for Dhaka.

When she was ousted and felt the request to flee, determination was small uncertainty astir wherever she would question refuge. Ajit Doval, India’s nationalist information adviser, received her erstwhile she landed connected the outskirts of New Delhi.

“We did not invitation Hasina this time,” said Chakravarty, who dealt with Hasina’s authorities concisely successful 2009 erstwhile helium was precocious commissioner. “A elder authoritative received her people due to the fact that she was the sitting premier minister, and India allowed her to enactment due to the fact that what different enactment was there?”

“Can she spell backmost to Bangladesh, much truthful present erstwhile she is connected a decease sentence?” helium asked, adding, “She was a affable idiosyncratic to India, and India has to instrumentality a motivation stand.”

Michael Kugelman, a South Asia expert based successful Washington, DC, said Hasina’s beingness successful India would proceed to “remain a thorn successful the bilateral relationship” going guardant but enabled “India to enactment existent to its pledge to stay loyal to its allies”.

However, theoretically, determination could beryllium longer word governmental dividends excessively for New Delhi, Kugelman argued.

Unlike different analysts, Kugelman said Hasina’s governmental bequest and the aboriginal of her Awami League cannot beryllium written disconnected completely.

Hasina leads an aged dynastic party, and a look astatine South Asia’s governmental past reveals that dynastic parties “fall connected hard times and for rather immoderate time, but they don’t truly shrivel up and die”, Kugelman said.

“Dynastic parties bent around” successful South Asia, helium said, and “with patience, if you unrecorded longer to spot important governmental change, it could make caller opportunities for comeback.”

Read Entire Article