Why is work-related migration to rich countries falling?

Work-related migration to affluent countries fell by much than one-fifth past year, arsenic labour markets weakened and countries including Australia and the United Kingdom tightened visa rules, according to caller probe by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

Data from the Paris-based organisation, which is made up of 38 affluent and emerging economies, showed that work-related migration declined betwixt 2023 and 2024, adjacent earlier Donald Trump’s instrumentality to the White House reduced the fig of arrivals into the United States.

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After respective years of dependable maturation pursuing the planetary COVID-19 pandemic, the fig of radical admitted for imperishable enactment purposes crossed the OECD fell by 21 percent past year, dropping to astir 934,000.

A information of the driblet stemmed from visa argumentation tightening – astir visibly successful the UK, wherever nett migration fell by much than 40 percent successful 2024. But adjacent wherever determination was nary alteration successful argumentation stance, labour migration fell successful astir European Union countries, dropping to beneath 2019 levels.

According to Jean-Christophe Dumont, who leads the OECD’s planetary migration division, the downturn tin beryllium chalked up to a “less favourable” planetary economical situation.

In April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) chopped its planetary maturation forecast by 0.5 percent points to 2.8 percent for 2025, citing President Donald Trump’s trade war arsenic a limiting factor.

Meanwhile, different countries that had traditionally been among the largest recipients of migrants person toughened introduction rules. Over the past 2 years, Canada, Australia and the UK person each brought successful measures to bounds work-related migration.

Elsewhere, Dumont noted that a ample fig of Ukrainians granted impermanent extortion successful Europe had eased labour shortages successful respective sectors, reducing the request for overseas workers.

According to the most recent information from the OECD, an estimated 5.1 cardinal Ukrainians who fled their state pursuing Russia’s full-scale penetration successful 2022 are present surviving successful OECD subordinate states, arsenic of June 2025.

What astir different types of migration?

The OECD recorded a 13 percent autumn successful the fig of caller planetary students arriving successful OECD nations betwixt 2023 and 2024. Tighter visa policies successful the UK, US, Canada and Australia played a cardinal role, driven by concerns astir migration fraud arsenic good arsenic unit connected section lodging markets.

By contrast, migration for humanitarian reasons has continued to climb. Asylum applications surged successful the US successful the last months of the Biden medication past year, and the UK has experienced a crisp summation successful amerciable small-boat arrivals from EU countries successful caller months.

These increases mean that, contempt the autumn successful labour and pupil migration, full imperishable migration to precocious economies successful 2024 dipped lone slightly, by 4 percent, from a highest successful the erstwhile year.

Still, the 6.2 cardinal newcomers to the OECD recorded successful 2024 exceeded pre-pandemic levels by astir 15 percent. Temporary labour mobility, involving visas which bash not pb to imperishable settlement, held dependable astatine astir 2.3 million. This remains supra 2019 levels.

How person migration numbers changed?

A grounds 6.5 cardinal radical settled successful OECD countries successful 2023. That was an summation of astir 10 percent connected the erstwhile grounds of six cardinal who moved successful 2022 – the top emergence was successful the UK.

Roughly one-third of OECD countries experienced grounds levels of migration successful 2023, including Canada, France and Japan. The US received 1.2 cardinal imperishable ineligible immigrants and Donald Trump based his 2024 predetermination run connected curbing migration.

Despite the governmental debate, probe by concern slope Goldman Sachs recovered that migration drove astir of the employment gains successful Canada, New Zealand, Sweden, Germany and the UK successful 2023, and added much than 4 cardinal jobs successful the US.

What does the aboriginal hold?

Dumont suggested that wide migration to OECD countries whitethorn easiness somewhat successful 2025, but it volition stay historically precocious contempt stricter US migration policies. He besides highlighted that the employment complaint among migrants remains coagulated successful labour markets.

In the UK, for instance, the employment complaint among foreign-born workers stood astatine astir 76 percent – a fig that somewhat surpassed the complaint recorded for radical who were calved successful the country.

He attributed this partially to visa schemes geared towards higher-skilled roles and partially to the information that lower-skilled migrants were willingly “filling gaps” successful jobs UK nationals bash not want.

Fabiola Mieres, a elder specializer successful migration astatine the International Labour Organization, told Al Jazeera: “We request to rethink immoderate of the issues astir autochthonal labour shortages successful areas similar agriculture, operation and wellness [where migrant workers thin to beryllium concentrated].

“Clearly, minimum wages and moving conditions are portion of the story.”

She added that “immigration volition apt proceed to signifier an important portion of electoral authorities astir the world, particularly successful Europe and the US. It creates a batch of heated emotions.”

What is the OECD?

The OECD was founded successful 1948 to coordinate the US Marshall Plan to rebuild Western Europe pursuing World War II. At the time, it provided a forum for economical readying and the removal of commercialized barriers betwixt its European members.

By the precocious 1950s, arsenic European reconstruction neared completion, subordinate states sought a much planetary model for economical cooperation. In 1961, the OECD expanded its rank to see the US and Canada.

Over consequent decades, the OECD widened its rank to see countries from the Asia Pacific, Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe, reflecting its improvement from a transatlantic radical to a broader assemblage of precocious and emerging countries.

By the precocious 20th century, the OECD had grown into a cardinal hub for economical research, argumentation investigation and the improvement of governance standards. It became wide recognised for its enactment and probe connected education, labour markets and biology policy.

In 2019, the OECD spearheaded a proposal to taxation large multinational companies astatine slightest 15 percent to enactment an extremity to decades of taxation contention betwixt governments trying to pull overseas investment.

The rules, which were adopted by the G20 successful October 2021, person made it harder for ample planetary companies, including giants similar Google, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft and Apple, to debar taxation by establishing offices successful low-tax jurisdictions.