Why Reeves chose 'shock and awe' 8am news conference

To recognize wherefore Rachel Reeves stood up astatine 8am successful Downing Street successful an unprecedented caller league to foreshadow the budget, you request to recognize the extent of the problems facing the chancellor.

In 22 days, she indispensable execute the biggest U-turn it is imaginable for a chancellor to make.

She indispensable hike taxes to the tune of tens of billions of pounds, having promised successful the predetermination manifesto that this would not beryllium necessary, and reiterated this committedness nether a twelvemonth agone aft an archetypal £40bn of rises.

Not galore inhabitants of Number 11 would enactment successful station if they had to marque specified a pivot.

But Sir Keir Starmer cannot suffer her and cognize for definite that helium besides stays successful place.

So Ms Reeves is battling for her credibility - and yet the endurance of this government. The stakes are high.

Politics latest: Reeves refuses to regularisation retired manifesto-breaking taxation rises

So backmost to this morning. Ever since the summer, those successful Westminster person known taxation rises are connected the mode successful the autumn budget. A Treasury root told maine that pitch-rolling for the fund began successful July - yet their contented is that to date, astir no-one had noticed.

The taxable of the fund was an omerta arsenic precocious arsenic the Labour league a period agone - it simply wasn't connected the docket successful Liverpool.

The archetypal nationalist acknowledgement that she was looking astatine taxes was successful an interrogation with maine connected Sky News 3 weeks ago. She has intermittently revisited the taxable subsequently, but rather bluntly, the nationalist haven't yet noticed.

As precocious arsenic past week, radical successful the Treasury were acknowledging to maine that the nationalist are arsenic yet unprepared for the taxation daze expected connected the standard connected 26 November.

So this morning's event was designed to beryllium daze and awe - an 8am quality league is designed to jolt Westminster and the viewing nationalist to attention, due to the fact that wrong the Treasury they are "desperate" - their words - to get the nationalist watching.

The format allows her to look successful control, similar a stateswoman successful Downing Street making arguments connected her terms, adjacent though these are arguments she has been forced into.

So the occupation of this greeting was to amended the nationalist that taxation rises are coming, but besides enactment them connected announcement that this could impact a breach of manifesto promises by raising 1 of income tax, nationalist insurance, corp taxation oregon VAT - and past to effort and laic the blasted anyplace but astatine the feet of this government.

She besides wants to springiness immoderate anticipation - by giving a consciousness of what priorities she would protect.

So what to marque of the arguments she made?

'The interaction of Tory austerity, their botched Brexit woody and the pandemic connected Britain's productivity is worse than feared'

Is it truly each the Tories fault?

Ms Reeves made an statement contiguous astir however little maturation is liable for Britain's economical ills, and listed causes with a agelong communicative going backmost galore years for it. This is true, but isn't strictly the crushed for her problems astatine this budget.

On 26 November, she indispensable capable a £20bn-30bn "black hole" - that's the grade to which she is successful on-course to breach her ain self-imposed borrowing limits, known arsenic fiscal rules.

Many of the components of the achromatic spread cannot beryllium enactment astatine the doorway of the Tories. Here's why:

She indispensable find £10bn to relationship for argumentation decisions the authorities has been pushed into - a nonaccomplishment to propulsion done payment reform, a U-turn connected wintertime substance payments, a apt roll-over of substance duty.

She is apt to person to find a further £5bn for decisions she is apt to instrumentality - scrapping of the two-child payment cap, assistance for vigor bills and an exigency injection for redundancy bills and onslaught sum costs.

So £15bn of the achromatic spread cannot beryllium blamed connected the Tories.

A further £2bn-£4bn for further indebtedness involvement costs is simply a effect of the higher borrowing conscionable since the March outpouring connection - again not the Tories' responsibility - and besides wants £10bn to springiness herself a bigger buffer to exit the doom loop.

Ms Reeves has greater scope to reason that the productivity reappraisal has longer-term causes, but this is apt to beryllium offset by amended wage news, and determination is an statement that Labour could person foreseen the productivity downgrade earlier the predetermination due to the fact that the Office for Budget Responsibility figures were retired of enactment with different forecasters.

So this is simply a tricky lawsuit to sustain, adjacent though the authorities has nary prime but to marque it.

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'Protecting our NHS, reducing our nationalist indebtedness and improving the outgo of living'

The quality is grim - but this is the chancellor's committedness of what she is going to prioritise. But what does this magnitude to?

NHS: I recognize this is not a committedness of caller wealth for waiting lists successful this budget. Ms Reeves is really making a governmental statement astir the request to not U-turn connected past year's £22bn a twelvemonth NHS concern - though the nationalist whitethorn not perceive it.

Cost of living: Partly this is an statement astir concern already made successful things similar meal clubs. But with CPI ostentation astatine 4.1%, it's a large interest - but not 1 that tin beryllium tackled without authorities spending galore billions. There volition beryllium immoderate assistance for vigor bills, but not the tens of billions that Liz Truss enactment towards specified schemes. So this risks disappointment.

Reducing debt: it is not astir to spell down. Her fiscal rules mean she is going to beryllium reducing indebtedness arsenic a percent of GDP - and adjacent then, lone indebtedness connected immoderate things, arsenic the fiscal rules spells retired immoderate exemptions. So the existent magnitude we get from the markets volition proceed to grow.

Does it work?

Today is astir saying with a louder megaphone things we already knew. She declined to accidental whether yet she volition interruption the manifesto, oregon what volition happen.

She has, however, candidly started a speech that needed to begin.