Why Riek Machar’s trial brings ‘existentially high’ stakes for South Sudan

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Juba, South Sudan – As helium was ushered into a barred holding compartment wrong an events hallway turned courtroom connected a greeting successful mid-October, the agleam grin and relaxed demeanour of Riek Machar, South Sudan’s embattled archetypal vice president and absorption leader, belied some the severity of the charges against him and the immense stakes for his country.

In September, Machar and 20 co-defendants from his Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army-in-Opposition (SPLM/A-IO) enactment were indicted connected charges of terrorism, treason, and crimes against humanity for their alleged relation successful a March onslaught connected a subject garrison that the authorities says killed much than 250 soldiers.

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Machar has denied the charges portion the SPLM-IO has called the accusations “baseless” and “politically motivated”.

As much than 1,000 radical streamed into the venue to ticker the proceedings – which began successful precocious September and person been unfastened to the nationalist – respective observers told Al Jazeera they were acrophobic by what they saw arsenic the government’s weaponisation of the justness strategy to sideline President Salva Kiir’s main governmental rival. They warned that the proceedings was deepening resentment among communities that revere Machar, and risked intensifying unit already unfolding crossed agrarian swaths of the country.

“This is simply a governmental trial. The authorities is utilizing the tribunal against its opponents,” said Lincoln Simon, a 37-year-old nonprofit manager who says he’s attended each league retired of a consciousness of civic duty. He thinks Machar is being scapegoated to fell broader authorities failures, similar spiralling inflation. “Our leaders person failed, and present they are looking for idiosyncratic to pin the blasted on.”

William Tong, 62, a retired mill worker, is simply a longtime protagonist of Machar’s absorption enactment who has besides been attending the proceedings. “We are watching this proceedings to spot whether oregon not this is simply a state tally by the regularisation of law,” helium said, adding that helium is keeping an unfastened caput but hasn’t yet seen grounds that helium finds compelling. “The radical are anxious to spot evidence. We tin beryllium convinced, but we aren’t yet.”

Others, similar James Majok, enactment the trial. Majok says the proceedings person divided radical successful his hometown of Aweil, astir 780km (500 miles) northbound of the superior Juba, into “those that privation the proceedings to proceed and those that object”. For Majok, it is simply a archetypal measurement towards broader accountability for nationalist officials.

“Anyone that is accused should beryllium tried,” said the 37-year-old, adding that the defendants should beryllium presumed guiltless until proven guilty. “Our anticipation is that this is the archetypal but not the last. The instrumentality should use to everybody.”

The 3 men, similar different members of the nationalist who spoke to Al Jazeera astir the trial, provided a pseudonym retired of fearfulness for their safety. Justice Minister Joseph Geng Akech has publically warned that commenting connected the ongoing proceedings of Machar and his co-accused could magnitude to contempt of court.

While Machar, 73, cannot legally look the decease punishment – the constitution bars superior punishment for individuals older than 70 – galore of his co-defendants are eligible, and Machar faces beingness successful situation and disqualification from holding governmental office.

Yet the wider implications are apt to reverberate acold beyond the court, analysts say.

The proceedings is successful galore ways the culmination of decades of mistrust betwixt Machar and Kiir, who betwixt 2013 and 2018 led opposing armies during a civilian warfare that killed an estimated 400,000 people. A bid agreement brought the 2 men into a unity government, but its provisions person gone mostly unimplemented portion economic and humanitarian crises person expanded successful the years since.

Like that war, galore consciousness that the proceedings has taken connected taste overtones. Kiir and overmuch of his interior ellipse are Dinka, the largest of the country’s 60-plus taste groups, portion each 21 of the accused are Nuer, the 2nd largest taste group. In the shadiness of caller bloody intercommunal strife, Simon believes the proceedings volition “divide the state on taste lines”.

The proceedings besides comes amid renewed warring betwixt an array of equipped groups, including Machar’s forces, authorities soldiers, and community-based militias crossed the country, prompting warnings from the United Nations and struggle monitors that the 2018 bid woody is collapsing.

“The stakes of this proceedings are existentially precocious for South Sudan,” said Daniel Akech, a South Sudan adept with the International Crisis Group. “If the process is not managed with utmost governmental care, the fallout could shatter the country’s fragile cohesion and trigger a illness of the state.”

A divisive figure

Through decades of equipped rebellion and reconciliation, Machar has go some a governmental instauration and 1 of South Sudan’s astir divisive figures.

In the 1980s, earlier the state gained independency from Sudan, Machar was a elder commandant successful the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A), a rebel question led by the charismatic US-educated economist John Garang that fought for decades against the authorities of Sudan.

In 1991, astatine 38 years old, Machar divided from the SPLM and formed his ain faction. He called Garang a “dictator” and claimed the question was dominated by the Dinka taste group, and turned to Khartoum for subject support. Garang, a Dinka, said Machar would “go down successful past arsenic the antheral who stabbed the question successful Southern Sudan successful the back”, and galore of his critics inactive respect him arsenic such.

That aforesaid year, forces linked to Machar massacred astatine slightest 2,000 civilians successful the municipality of Bor, a Dinka colonisation centre adjacent Garang’s birthplace, an atrocity that has continued to plague Machar’s estimation contempt nationalist apologies.

After much than a decade, Machar reconciled with Garang – who died successful a chopper clang successful 2005 – rejoined the movement, and became South Sudan’s vice president successful 2011, the twelvemonth the state gained its independence.

Two years later, a powerfulness conflict wrong the SPLM erupted into war. After Machar was sacked and authorities troops massacred much than 10,000 Nuer civilians successful Juba, Machar rebelled nether the banner of a caller group, the SPLM-IO, that fought a five-year warfare against the government. That struggle saw numerous atrocities carried retired by some sides, often on taste lines. Machar framed his question arsenic a combat for much inclusive governance.

Women and children queue to person exigency nutrient astatine the U.N. extortion of civilians tract 3 hosting astir 30,000 radical displaced during the caller warring successful Juba

The 2018 bid agreement brought Machar backmost to Juba to rejoin a unity authorities arsenic the astir elder of 5 vice presidents.

The statement – named the Revitalised Agreement connected the Resolution of the Conflict successful the Republic of South Sudan, oregon R-ARCSS – acceptable retired benchmarks intended to shepherd the state to nationalist elections.

In the post-war years, arsenic politicians successful Juba mislaid legitimacy amid persistent insecurity, economical crisis, and virtually nonexistent work provision, Machar maintained what enactment helium had near from his basal by casting himself arsenic a democratiser and bulwark against Dinka nationalism, analysts and absorption supporters say.

“Machar represents the look of resistance,” said Paul Bayoch, a taste historiographer and assemblage person from Akobo, an absorption stronghold astir 550km (350 miles) from the capital. “Today, helium looks similar a unfortunate of the Juba regime. The aforesaid suffering that radical are feeling, present they spot Machar being victimised successful the aforesaid way.”

Although Machar’s popularity had waned successful caller years, owing to what immoderate spot arsenic his abandoning of the grassroots to prosecute idiosyncratic governmental goals, helium is inactive wide viewed arsenic the figurehead of South Sudan’s Nuer colonisation and the lone absorption person with capable governmental heft to instrumentality the bid agreement. His prosecution, immoderate analysts say, has buoyed his enactment erstwhile again.

“To immoderate extent, Machar’s apprehension has renewed his legitimacy,” said Joshua Craze, an autarkic researcher connected South Sudan. “I accidental to immoderate grade due to the fact that galore radical mightiness not beryllium consenting to combat implicit the information that he’s been detained. But if thing atrocious were to hap to him, that could beryllium a spark for much wide fighting.”

A bid statement connected trial

At the bosom of the proceedings are questions astir the viability of the 2018 agreement, which is regarded by galore arsenic the glue holding the authorities together.

Analysts person agelong criticised the bid woody for sidelining grassroots institutions and consolidating powerfulness wrong a tiny people of equipped elites. Its defenders support that it has mitigated struggle betwixt the main signatories and remains the champion way to stability, though cardinal provisions, specified arsenic the integration of forces into a nationalist army, person gone unimplemented.

During aboriginal sessions, Machar’s defence argued that the proceedings was unlawful nether conditions successful the bid statement and should beryllium stopped. The onslaught connected the garrison, they said, was a ceasefire usurpation that should beryllium investigated by a neutral monitoring assemblage overseen by an East African bloc, arsenic stipulated successful the accord.

The authorities has argued that the peculiar tribunal has jurisdiction implicit the alleged crimes nether home law. It says it plans to contiguous forensic and fiscal grounds and telephone much than 2 twelve witnesses to amusement however the defendants incited and aided the attack.

But respective lawyers, civilian nine members, and proceedings observers who spoke to Al Jazeera judge that by trying Machar successful a South Sudanese court, President Kiir is abrogating the agreement.

“It is not conscionable the defendants that are connected trial, but the full bid agreement,” said a lawyer moving connected Machar’s defence team, who spoke connected information of anonymity.

“Charging Machar portion helium inactive occupies his constitutionally recognised bureau of archetypal vice president violates the agreement’s halfway equilibrium, that neither broadside could unilaterally predominate the different during the transition,” said Remember Miamingi, a South Sudanese ineligible student and erstwhile advisor to the African Union’s governmental affairs, peace, and information department.

He added that the effect of the government’s unilateral enactment could besides deter absorption groups from participating successful aboriginal bid talks. “If erstwhile insurgents cognize that information successful authorities exposes them to prosecution by institutions controlled by their rivals, they volition rationally take continued insurgency implicit integration,” helium said.

But adjacent arsenic observers statement whether the bid statement is live oregon dead, relations betwixt the authorities and absorption person already deteriorated into unfastened struggle crossed astatine slightest fractional of South Sudan’s 10 states.

The UN says that betwixt January and September, conflict-related deaths were 59 percent higher than implicit the aforesaid play the erstwhile year. Approximately 321,000 radical person been displaced by unit this year, it said, including much than 100,000 into war-ravaged Sudan. Food information experts have warned of famine successful areas chopped disconnected from humanitarian assistance by aerial bombardments, placing tens of thousands astatine hazard of starvation.

Analysts accidental it’s unclear whether a blameworthy verdict would construe instantly to an uptick successful fighting. A ample fig of the absorption forces loyal to Machar, weakened successful caller years, are already warring connected aggregate fronts and whitethorn not person galore much forces oregon materiel to commit. Yet specified a verdict could inactive thrust greater antigovernment sentiment, spur opportunistic pacts and propulsion aggrieved assemblage militias into the absorption fold.

New alliances betwixt erstwhile enemies uncover however unpredictable South Sudan’s conflict lines person become. In September, forces loyal to Machar – present nether the interim enactment of lawman SPLM-IO president Nathaniel Oyet – entered a subject confederation with the National Salvation Front, a rebel question that rejected the 2018 bid woody and has been waging a guerrilla rebellion ever since. In caller months, the 2 groups person mounted associated hit-and-run attacks connected authorities positions and armouries.

This month, a salient subordinate of the ruling SPLM, Nhial Deng Nhial, defected to signifier his ain party, the South Sudan Salvation Movement, saying the enactment had “betrayed its founding ideals”. His departure whitethorn presage a fracturing of the SPLM itself.

“The champion lawsuit script is for the parties to restart dialogue,” said Edmund Yakani, a salient civilian nine leader, successful a telephone that has been echoed by determination leaders. “The worst lawsuit script is we spell the Sudan route,” helium added, referring to the illness of South Sudan’s bluish neighbour into warfare successful April 2023 aft a fallout betwixt 2 of the country’s strongmen.

Mixed messages

Government officials person framed Machar’s proceedings arsenic the opening of a caller section successful South Sudan’s history, 1 successful which nary idiosyncratic is supra the law.

“This lawsuit sends a wide message,” Akech, the justness minister, said astatine a caller quality briefing. “Those who perpetrate atrocities against the radical of South Sudan, our equipped forces, oregon humanitarian workers volition beryllium held accountable, careless of their presumption oregon governmental influence.”

To galore South Sudanese, that assertion rings hollow, fixed that overmuch of the country’s governmental people has been implicated successful the theft of billions of dollars successful nationalist funds, on with a litany of human rights abuses committed by each sides, arsenic documented by UN commissions and advocacy groups.

Others constituent to the long-promised but never-established hybrid tribunal acceptable retired successful the 2018 bid agreement. The African Union-led assemblage was meant to analyse and effort atrocities committed during and aft the war, including by sitting officials. Government and AU officials person blamed the hold successful its enactment connected procedural and fiscal obstacles, often pointing fingers astatine 1 another.

The UN said successful a 2022 study that perpetrators of wide intersexual unit during the civilian warfare person enjoyed “near cosmopolitan impunity”. A much caller UN report alleged that $1.7bn allocated for the operation of roads was unaccounted for, apt funnelled into companies linked to Second Vice President Benjamin Bol Mel, a adjacent state of the president.

“There is simply a heavy hypocrisy successful the proceedings of Machar portion different officials, including the president, person ne'er faced justice,” said civilian nine person Yakani.

“If a hybrid tribunal is established, it volition not beryllium the [first] vice president unsocial who volition spell there,” said Simon, 1 of the tribunal observers. “It volition beryllium the full leadership.”

Miamingi, the erstwhile AU adviser, called the proceedings “weaponised justice” and warned that it could go a centrifugal for aboriginal taste strife. “The proceedings of Riek Machar, a Nuer leader, successful the lack of equivalent accountability for Dinka governmental and subject figures, risks being interpreted not arsenic impartial justness but arsenic taste reprisal done law,” helium said. “The effect is not accountability but renewed confrontation nether a ineligible guise.”

Succession politics

Many spot the proceedings arsenic an enactment of governmental score-settling that besides advances the succession program of President Kiir, 74, whose wellness is rumoured to beryllium successful decline.

If Machar is convicted, helium volition beryllium a felon and barred from holding governmental office, arsenic stipulated by the country’s provisional constitution. Many successful his campy judge the proceedings is intended to disqualify him from moving successful nationalist elections scheduled for 2026 – the country’s first.

Late successful 2024, Kiir began dismissing almighty officials successful what immoderate saw arsenic an effort to wide the mode for Bol Mel, a US-sanctioned businessman with adjacent ties to the president, to presume much almighty roles successful the government.

In September, the president promoted Bol Mel to the fertile of wide successful the nationalist quality service, his 3rd promotion successful little than a year.

Bol Mel, successful his 40s, is besides a Dinka and hails from the aforesaid portion of the state arsenic the president. Some spot his accelerated ascension wrong the SPLM enactment arsenic impervious of the consolidation of powerfulness wrong Kiir’s taste group.

His emergence has besides divided the enactment itself. Analysts accidental helium is wide viewed, adjacent successful the president’s camp, of being an undeserving upstart with nary subject background, sidelining veterans of the independency conflict who spot themselves arsenic the party’s rightful heirs. Several high-ranking officials were notably absent from his swearing-in arsenic enactment deputy, section media outlet Radio Tamazuj reported.

“The fearfulness of a Bol Mel presidency is simply a large governmental force, extending acold beyond 1 community,” said Akech, the South Sudan expert. “A bulk of Dinka elites, successful particular, would alternatively not spot Machar defeated if it means Bol Mel becomes president.”

Bol Mel whitethorn not yet presume the presidency, fixed Kiir’s grounds of gathering up and past abruptly sacking adjacent allies. Yet immoderate people of succession runs the hazard of fracturing the SPLM and triggering much wide fighting, including successful the capital.

“There are 2 governmental institutions successful South Sudan, the president and Riek Machar,” said Wani Michael, a South Sudanese lawyer specialising successful law law. “And getting escaped of either of them volition not beryllium easy. It volition person consequences.”

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