Why Trump’s secondary tariffs on Russia could bite the US, its allies too

Top United States diplomatic negotiator Steve Witkoff visited Moscow connected Wednesday successful a last-ditch propulsion to transportation Russian President Vladimir Putin to hold to a ceasefire with Ukraine earlier an August 8 deadline acceptable by President Donald Trump.

After Witkoff’s gathering with Putin, the White House said that Russia had sought a gathering with Trump. The US president, the White House said, was unfastened to meeting some Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Trump, who during his re-election run had promised helium would beryllium capable to extremity the Russia-Ukraine warfare successful 24 hours if helium came to power, has truthful acold failed to mediate a truce contempt months of hectic diplomacy, nonstop talks betwixt Moscow and Kyiv, and telephone calls with Putin.

Increasingly frustrated by Putin’s unwillingness to hold to a intermission successful warring without imposing conditions unacceptable to Ukraine oregon the West, Trump has threatened a caller question of economic measures punishing Russia if it does not judge a ceasefire.

Since Russia’s full-fledged penetration of Ukraine successful February 2022, the US and its allies, including the United Kingdom and the European Union, person imposed much than 21,000 sanctions connected Russia’s economy.

The caller tariffs Trump has threatened are dissimilar immoderate of those earlier sanctions, however. They people Russia by hitting retired against its trading partners, successful the anticipation that they volition halt buying from oregon selling to Moscow.

But these secondary tariffs besides transportation risks for the US and its allies.

What are the secondary tariffs Trump is threatening?

In mid-July, arsenic bid talks stalled contempt Trump’s efforts, the US president threatened Russia with 100 percent secondary tariffs if it did not enactment towards a ceasefire. He gave the Kremlin a 50-day deadline to cooperate.

After Moscow suggested that it wouldn’t bow to US pressure, Trump moved up the deadline, which present expires connected August 8. It is unclear if Trump’s openness to talks with Putin and Zelenskyy pursuing Witkoff’s Moscow sojourn has changed that deadline.

On Wednesday, Trump doubled the tariff complaint connected Indian imports from 25 percent – which helium had announced successful precocious July – to 50 percent, arsenic punishment for New Delhi’s refusal to halt buying Russian oil. That makes India the state facing the highest US tariffs astatine contiguous – on with Brazil.

If Trump’s secondary tariffs spell into effect, goods that the US imports from countries inactive trading with Russia would look duties of 100 percent connected apical of the tariffs Trump has already imposed connected those nations.

That would astatine slightest treble the terms of those products, making them little competitory successful the US market.

The thought down these tariffs is to transportation Russia’s trading partners to halt buying and selling with the country, isolating its system and depriving it of gross it earns from exports, particularly from energy.

Despite the sanctions it already faces, Russia has consistently earned much than 500 cardinal euros ($580m) a time from vigor exports since 2022. That volition beryllium disrupted if countries halt buying each lipid and state from Russia.

Which countries could Trump’s secondary tariffs hit?

The countries astir affected by specified secondary tariffs would be:

• China: Russia’s astir important ally, China is by acold the largest user of its bluish neighbour’s exports. In 2023, China bought astir a 3rd of each Russian exports. It besides bought astir fractional of Russia’s lipid exports.
• India: An aged friend, India has been buying up ample volumes of Russian crude since 2022, including astir 40 percent of Russia’s full lipid exports successful 2023. That year, 17 percent of Russia’s wide exports went to India. Trump had already imposed a 25 percent tariff connected Indian goods. On Wednesday, helium doubled that complaint arsenic punishment for India’s continued lipid purchases from Russia.
• Turkiye: The third-largest purchaser of Russian energy, 8 percent of Russia’s exports successful 2023 went to Turkiye. It is simply a NATO state of the US.

Turkiye isn’t the lone state that could beryllium deed if Trump genuinely targets each those who commercialized with Russia.

Could US allies beryllium hit?

Pushing backmost against Western threats implicit its ties with Russia, India has pointed to the EU’s ain commercialized with Moscow. And portion that commercialized has plummeted since 2022, it is inactive substantial.

According to the EU, its full commercialized with Russia was worthy 67.5 cardinal euros ($77.9bn) successful 2024. India’s full commercialized with Russia successful 2024-25, by contrast, was worth $68.7bn.

The bloc inactive relies heavy connected Russia for its liquefied earthy state (LNG) supplies. In fact, its import of Russian LNG has been rising: In 2024, EU imports of Russian LNG were 9 percent higher than the twelvemonth before.

Europe has already been deed with a 15 percent tariff from Trump. Will Trump punish his closest supporters to unit Russia to extremity the war?

Could the US look risks, too?

It is not conscionable allies – secondary tariffs connected those who commercialized with Russia transportation risks for the US itself, too.

Trump’s squad is presently moving connected a commercialized woody with China, and those talks person led to a intermission successful a tariff warfare betwixt the world’s 2 largest economies.

That detente would interruption down if Trump imposes 100 percent tariffs connected Chinese goods simply due to the fact that Beijing besides trades with Russia.

China, Europe and India are each large suppliers of goods to the US: If the outgo of those products – from apparel to lamps to iPhones – doubles, American consumers volition consciousness the pinch.

The US besides buys chemicals, including uranium hexafluoride – utilized successful uranium enrichment – from Russia.

Will India and China halt buying Russian energy?

That looks unlikely. China continues to bargain lipid from Iran, contempt US sanctions – and Russia is arguably its closest strategical partner.

India has besides shown nary motion of loosening its ties with Russia. Witkoff isn’t the lone overseas envoy visiting Moscow astatine the moment. India’s nationalist information adviser, Ajit Doval, is besides successful the Russian capital. India’s overseas minister, S Jaishankar, is expected to sojourn Russia aboriginal this month, and India has announced that it intends to big Putin aboriginal this year.

On Wednesday, India described Trump’s 50 percent tariff arsenic “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable”, adding that its acquisition of Russian lipid was rooted successful its tendency for vigor information for its 1.4 cardinal people.