Will a US-backed economic zone incentivise Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah?

The United States has floated a connection for an economical portion successful confederate Lebanon successful what analysts archer Al Jazeera is simply a far-fetched and poorly thought-out program to incentivise the Lebanese authorities to propulsion connected with disarming Hezbollah.

The US envoy to the Middle East, Thomas Barrack, floated the economical portion during a sojourn to Lebanon connected Tuesday but provided fewer details different than hints astatine financing.

“We, each of america – the Gulf, the US, the Lebanese – are each going to enactment unneurotic to make an economical forum that is going to nutrient a livelihood,” Barrack told journalists.

Experts said the thought could beryllium based connected akin zones successful Jordan and Egypt, 2 countries with bid deals with Israel that Lebanon would beryllium hard-pressed to replicate aft past year’s Israeli warfare connected Lebanon.

After the war, fought chiefly against Hezbollah, a determination and home propulsion to disarm the Lebanese radical has grown, and the comparatively caller Lebanese government, which took bureau successful January and is nether US and Israeli pressure, has declared the volition to disarm the group.

The unit to disarm Hezbollah

Israel and Hezbollah fought a warfare that started connected October 8, 2023, but intensified successful September past twelvemonth until a ceasefire connected November 27, which Israel has repeatedly breached with nary repercussions.

Hezbollah’s subject capabilities took a deed during the war, and Israel succeeded successful assassinating galore of its leaders.

The Iran-backed “axis of resistance”, of which Hezbollah is simply a member, suffered different superior blows with the fall of President Bashar al-Assad successful Syria successful December and US-backed Israeli attacks connected Iran successful June, leaving Hezbollah with weakened determination support.

Domestically, Hezbollah has seen its popularity extracurricular its halfway constituency plummet implicit the past 20 years – from its presumption arsenic the lone Lebanese unit capable to repel Israel – arsenic a effect of its takeover of Beirut successful 2008, its intervention successful Syria connected behalf of al-Assad’s authorities and its backing of counterrevolutionary forces during the 2019 Lebanese uprising.

Many of its governmental allies, including the Free Patriotic Movement and one-time statesmanlike campaigner Sleiman Frangieh, person shifted their code towards Hezbollah, expressing enactment for its disarmament.

The home absorption to Hezbollah said it supports its disarmament due to the fact that that would ore powerfulness successful the hands of the Lebanese state.

And now, removed from its perch arsenic Lebanon’s hegemon and with its opponents demanding disarmament, Hezbollah is connected the backmost foot.

Until now, Hezbollah has rejected the thought of disarmament and has heaped disapproval connected the government.

Protesters clasp up Hezbollah flags astir graffiti reading, “Barak is animal,” arsenic they show against a sojourn by US envoy Tom Barrack to confederate Lebanon connected August 27, 2025 [AFP]

“We volition not wantonness the weapons that honour america nor the weapons that support america from our enemy,” Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem said successful a code connected August 25.

“If this authorities continues successful its existent form, it cannot beryllium trusted to safeguard Lebanon’s sovereignty,” helium added.

Trauma near down by war

Israel killed much than 4,000 radical successful Lebanon and displaced much than a cardinal successful a warfare successful which it attacked Lebanon much than 5 times for each onslaught Hezbollah oregon an state launched astatine Israel.

Despite the ceasefire stipulating that it retreat from confederate Lebanon, Israel has continued to inhabit astatine slightest 5 points determination and persists successful destroying villages successful the area.

During the fighting, Israel invaded confederate Lebanon, sending radical fleeing for their lives, thousands of whom inactive cannot spell location aft Israel turned the country into an uninhabitable buffer zone utilizing intensive bombing and achromatic phosphorus.

“People successful southbound Lebanon are inactive traumatised by the caller war,” Lebanese governmental expert Karim Emile Bitar said, indicating that this trauma volition impede immoderate acceptance of the US economical portion proposal.

“Many Arabs, Muslims and radical successful the Global South bash not presumption the US arsenic an honorable broker,” helium continued.

Analysts told Al Jazeera that Barrack was apt trying to incentivise the radical of Lebanon, peculiarly those who enactment oregon are portion of Hezbollah, to further unit the authorities to transportation connected with the group’s disarmament.

“We person 40,000 radical that are being paid by Iran to fight,” Barrack said. “What are you going to bash with them? Take their limb and say: ‘By the way, bully luck planting olive trees’?”

Some media reports indicated the thought of an economical portion successful confederate Lebanon was archetypal projected successful meetings betwixt Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and Barrack successful Paris, the thought being that Lebanese state-owned factories would beryllium built successful the country adjacent to the borderline with Israel.

Other details are sparse. Each expert Al Jazeera spoke with said the deficiency of details makes it hard to ideate what specified an economical portion would entail.

Joseph Daher, the writer of Hezbollah: Political Economy of the Party of God, pointed retired that Jordan and Egypt person thing called qualifying concern zones (QIZs), which location manufacturing operations and were built aft the 1993 Oslo Agreement with Israel.

To suffice for a QIZ, goods produced indispensable person a information of Israeli input. But some Jordan and Egypt besides person normalised relations with Israel, thing that galore Lebanese would inactive vehemently reject.

Hezbollah main Naim Qassem has refused to manus implicit the group’s weapons [Screengrab: al-Manar TV via Reuters]

Such economical zones look dense disapproval from experts too.

“They run arsenic isolated enclaves, disconnected from section communities, sometimes resulting successful the displacement of communities and can, done their sheer beingness arsenic they necessitate ample amounts of land, pb to superior biology consequences,”  Yasser Elsheshtawy, an adjunct prof of architecture astatine Columbia University successful New York and writer of Temporary Cities: Resisting Transience successful Arabia, told Al Jazeera.

“In galore instances, they play a relation successful the maltreatment of workers’ rights arsenic the close for forming unions is typically prohibited,” helium added.

No buy-in

Even if specified an economical task were enabled, galore analysts are sceptical that it would person enactment oregon spot from section workers oregon residents.

“I don’t spot immoderate tendency oregon buy-in,” Michael Young, a Lebanese expert and writer, told Al Jazeera. “If it ever takes off, determination volition beryllium buy-in, but each this is precise premature.”

Residents of confederate Lebanon bash not spot the US arsenic an honorable histrion oregon 1 that works successful Lebanon’s interests, analysts said.

“The thought is rejected due to the fact that determination is nary spot successful America,” said Qassem Kassir, a Lebanese governmental expert believed to beryllium adjacent to Hezbollah.

After a brutal warfare with Israel, a adjacent US state and largest recipient of US subject aid, galore Lebanese volition besides conflict to judge the US is acting successful their champion interests.

“[The economical zone] could connection oxygen and assistance a struggling economy,” Bitar said. “[However] it inactive needs to flooded a bid of obstacles, and the large obstacle contiguous is psychological. There is simply a deficiency of trust.”

The US has stood idly by for the astir portion arsenic Israel has attacked its neighbours connected aggregate fronts successful the past 23 months, including successful Gaza, the occupied West Bank, Lebanon and Syria.

“The US has not been, particularly successful the past twelvemonth and a half, pressuring Israel to halt its usurpation of quality rights either successful the genocide successful Palestine, the concern of Lebanon oregon successful Syria,” Daher said.

“Quite the other – it has been supporting them.”

Lebanese supporters of Hezbollah, galore of whom unrecorded successful the country wherever the economical portion is being proposed, person shared their terrible distrust of US intentions publically connected societal media and different platforms.

Many successful Lebanon bash not presumption US President Donald Trump oregon his state arsenic a good-faith oregon trustworthy histrion representing their interests [Jonathan Ernst/Reuters]

Some person expressed disappointment with the Lebanese authorities and accused it of acting connected behalf of US and Israeli interests.

Still, analysts said, careless of a deficiency of spot successful US plans for the region, determination are fewer different governmental alternatives than to judge what the US and Israel are proposing.

“As a effect of the aftermath of October 7 [2023 Hamas-led onslaught connected Israel] and its destructive determination consequences, wide sectors of the colonisation are having this full US-Israeli hegemony imposed upon them,” Daher said.

“The process of normalisation volition instrumentality clip to beryllium imposed but is moving guardant de facto, … truthful it is much astir dealing with the concern arsenic it is and the deficiency of governmental alternatives.”