Will Elon Musk’s X changing the Iranian flag have any impact on the ground?

Amid intensifying protests successful Iran, the world’s richest antheral has weighed in.

On January 4, Elon Musk, the multi-billionaire proprietor of societal media level X, responded to a station by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that said “we volition not springiness successful to the enemy” by suggesting successful Farsi that helium was delusional.

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Then, connected Saturday, Musk’s level X changed the Iranian emblem emoji connected the tract from the 1 utilized since the Islamic gyration successful 1979 to the pre-revolution emblem featuring a lion and sun.

Some demonstrators wrong and extracurricular of Iran person waved the pre-1979 emblem arsenic a protestation against the existent regime.

Musk’s moves person gained immoderate enactment from critics of the authorities successful Tehran. However, analysts statement the grade to which specified moves tin person an interaction connected the crushed successful Iran.

What’s down the protests?

Protests successful Iran began connected December 28 amid soaring ostentation successful the country. They’ve since dispersed to much than 100 cities and towns, and are present reportedly taking spot successful each state successful the country.

“The absorption of the protests is connected the halfway of the authorities and governance of the state due to the fact that political, economic, social, cultural, oregon adjacent biology policies person not worked for [protesters],” Negar Mortazavi, a elder chap astatine the Center for International Policy, told Al Jazeera. “Economics, though, was the commencement of it.”

Many of the protesters are calling for an extremity to the regularisation of the country’s ayatollahs who, on with their Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), took implicit aft the 1979 revolution.

Khamenei, the existent ultimate leader, has led the state since 1989. And portion his regularisation has survived a fig of waves of unrest, including the wide “Women, Life, Freedom” protests of 2022, immoderate analysts judge that the latest demonstrations are among the biggest challenges his authorities has faced.

“The Trump administration’s determination to discontinue the Iran atomic woody successful 2018 and reimpose sanctions – and its nonaccomplishment to scope a caller woody with Iran past twelvemonth – person crippled the system and accrued corruption, benefitting a tiny sanctions-busting elite,” said Barbara Slavin, a distinguished chap astatine the Stimson Center successful Washington and a lecturer successful planetary affairs astatine George Washington University.

“Add to that the terrible blows inflicted connected Iran’s determination allies since October 7, 2023, the Israeli and US strikes past summer, and it is hard to spot a mode retired [for the regime].”

The Iranian authorities has enforced an net blackout successful the state since Thursday, though immoderate videos person inactive managed to circulate online of masked protesters clashing with information forces successful Iranian cities.

The semiofficial quality bureau Tasnim reported connected Sunday that the fig of information unit killed has reached 109. Opposition activists accidental the decease toll is higher and includes dozens of protesters.

Al Jazeera cannot independently verify the figures coming retired of Iran.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has threatened to intervene if the authorities termination much protesters.

Enter Elon

Musk, a longtime tech mogul heading US government-supported companies including Tesla and SpaceX, left a role with the Trump administration, wherever helium led the alleged Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), successful precocious May.

Musk’s enactment with DOGE was wide criticised, though his acquisition of societal media level X and vocal enactment for racist policies person besides attracted wide condemnation successful caller years.

Today, Musk is much focused connected his backstage businesses, though helium inactive wades into authorities from clip to time, peculiarly to propulsion right-wing conspiracy theories astir “white genocide” and immigration.

As for Iran, during the 2022 “Women, Life, Freedom” protests and again successful 2025’s 12-Day War – which killed much than 610 radical successful Iran and 28 successful Israel – Musk provided net entree to radical wrong the state done his outer work Starlink.

Iran has reportedly jammed Starlink signals during the latest protests.

“The authorities uses net disruption and shutdown to forestall much mobilisation of protesters and connection betwixt protestation groups and besides to forestall quality of it spreading,” Mortazavi said.

“It inactive happens with a hold erstwhile the net comes backmost on, but what it does is hamper mobilisation and slows down the process of the protests. That’s the archetypal extremity of a comms shutdown.”

This is wherever Starlink tin beryllium peculiarly useful. But analysts accidental Musk responding to Khamenei’s station and changing the emblem connected X are not apt driven by ideology.

“I uncertainty helium cares astir Iran per se,” said Slavin. “But helium wants to gin up much postulation for X, and this is 1 mode to bash it.”

How utile are Musk’s latest interventions?

The alteration of Iran’s emblem connected X came amid the net blackout, truthful galore protesters connected the crushed were apt incapable to spot it. Some Iranian officials, however, were concisely viewed by those extracurricular the state with the pre-Islamic Republic flags successful their relationship profiles.

“It’s a integer mentation of conquering a gathering and pulling down the aged flag, and trying to enactment a caller flag, that was fundamentally the symbolising they were going for,” historiographer Reza H Akbari, who is besides an expert connected Iran astatine the Institute for War and Peace Reporting, told Al Jazeera.

“The powerfulness of these types of moves are rather readily contested successful mid- and semipermanent effects,” said Akbari. “But it could supply momentary excitement [for protesters connected the crushed if they tin spot it] though it’s precise hard to gauge the magnitude of fashionable support.”

Slavin told Al Jazeera that “what is happening extracurricular Iran is not that relevant” to what is taking spot wrong the country.

“The existent conflict for state is among Iranians is inactive successful Iran, not the diaspora oregon others funny successful the topic,” she said.

“They tin amplify developments wrong Iran and explicit enactment for quality rights, but we cannot find the result of the struggle.”

A ‘contentious’ flag

Meanwhile, Akbari says the pre-1979 emblem “has ever been contentious, fundamentally arsenic a awesome for absorption some wrong the state and abroad”.

He added that portion the emblem whitethorn mean antithetic things to antithetic critics of the existent Iranian government, it is often associated with “the absorption that identifies arsenic monarchist oregon wants the instrumentality of the shah”, who was deposed successful 1979.

During caller protests, the ousted shah’s son, Reza Pahlavi, called connected demonstrators to instrumentality to the streets and inhabit Iranian cities.

Some protesters, including those extracurricular Iran, person called for a instrumentality to regularisation by the shah, despite his questionable popularity. Akbari said that Pahlavi himself has offered to enactment arsenic a transitional person but is not looking to determination permanently to Iran to regularisation the country.

Analysts hold that Pahlavi would not beryllium the antheral to pb the state forward, should Iran’s Islamic Republic autumn aft 47 years successful power.

“Today, determination are galore decent and susceptible radical successful Iran who could regenerate those successful power. Unfortunately, astir of them are successful prison,” Slavin said.

“The lad of the shah, meanwhile, lives comfortably successful a mansion successful Potomac [in the US authorities of Maryland]. It’s hard to spot what helium offers successful the mode of applicable change.”