Will Hamas agree to hand over its weapons as part of a Gaza ceasefire deal?

Israel and Hamas whitethorn person agreed to the archetypal signifier of a United States-backed ceasefire deal, but contentious differences betwixt the 2 sides inactive remain, peculiarly erstwhile it comes to the destiny of the Palestinian group’s weapons.

Israel has agelong insisted that Hamas surrender each of its weapons if its two-year warfare connected Gaza is to end, arsenic good arsenic demanding that the radical relinquish governance of the Palestinian enclave and dissolve itself arsenic an organisation.

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For its part, Hamas has publically rejected calls to springiness up its weapons, but experts accidental that the radical has expressed openness successful backstage to manus implicit immoderate of its arsenal.

“When it comes to disarmament, this is wherever you person seen the biggest displacement successful Hamas’s position,” said Hugh Lovatt, an adept connected Israel-Palestine with the European Council connected Foreign Relations (ECFR).

“[Hamas officials] person said successful backstage to interlocutors that the radical whitethorn beryllium unfastened to a decommissioning process of Hamas’s violative weapons,” helium told Al Jazeera.

Shaky ceasefire

Negotiations implicit Hamas’s arsenal could torpedo the ceasefire and punctual Israel to resume its genocidal warfare connected the destitute and beleaguered Palestinian colonisation successful Gaza, analysts said.

An equipped radical has the close to carnivore arms and defy an occupying powerfulness successful enactment with planetary humanitarian instrumentality – the main model referenced to support civilians successful times of war.

Yet, Israel and its Western allies person historically demanded that Palestinian factions springiness up equipped absorption arsenic a precondition to launching a bid process ostensibly aimed astatine ending Israel’s concern implicit Palestinian territories.

This was the model underpinning the Oslo Peace Accords successful the 1990s, signed by past Palestinian and Israeli leaders.

Israel is apt to effort and marque akin demands this clip around, but Hamas is improbable to wholly disarm, according to Azmi Keshawi, a Palestinian from Gaza and a researcher with the International Crisis Group (ICG).

He said that helium could lone envision Hamas surrendering immoderate “offensive weapons” specified arsenic short-range and long-range missles.

However, helium believes Hamas volition ne'er springiness up its tiny arms and airy weapons, nor manus implicit a representation of its blase passageway network, which it spent decades gathering to defy Israel.

“[Hamas] volition lone springiness up [light] weapons erstwhile determination is nary request for these weapons. This means they volition lone manus them implicit to a Palestinian enactment that assumes power of a authorities aft Israel ends its occupation,” Keshawi told Al Jazeera.

Power vacuum?

Hamas was the largest of respective equipped groups successful Gaza earlier Israel began its warfare connected October 7, 2023, aft the Hamas-led onslaught connected confederate Israel.

Some of these groups see Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) and the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades.

These groups person agelong been committed to waging equipped absorption against Israel, and it is unclear to what grade they person been degraded by Israel’s relentless carpet bombing implicit the past 2 years.

During Israel’s genocide – recognised arsenic specified by scholars, the United Nations and quality rights groups –  Israel has besides propped up notorious gangs to bargain and profiteer disconnected the small assistance it has allowed into the Gaza Strip.

Many Palestinians successful Gaza judge Hamas should sphere immoderate subject capabilities to halt these gangs from exploiting a imaginable powerfulness vacuum, Taghreed Khodary, an expert connected Israel-Palestine who is from Gaza, told Al Jazeera.

“Israel created gangs and gave them weapons and guns to termination their ain radical [in Gaza]. Now Israel wants to expel Hamas, but Hamas is needed to support interior security,” she said.

“Hamas is precise bully astatine providing security,” she stressed.

Lovatt, from ECFR, added that Hamas whitethorn beryllium consenting to cooperate with an interim task unit deployed to supply information and oversee a partial decommissioning of its weapons.

However, helium said that Hamas would lone hold to coordinating with specified a unit if its mandate intelligibly stipulates that it volition not antagonistic “terrorism” successful immoderate way.

“I’m definite determination is precise small appetite successful Western capitals to play that ‘counterterrorism’ role, and it surely wouldn’t beryllium acceptable to Hamas. It would exposure the planetary task unit arsenic explicitly serving Israel’s goals,” Lovatt told Al Jazeera.

‘Hamas arsenic an idea’

Throughout Israel’s genocide, Israel has claimed that its warfare purpose is to ostensibly dismantle Hamas. But Keshawi, the ICG researcher, said Hamas volition ne'er beryllium afloat defeated.

He predicts the radical volition sorb thousands of destitute and vengeful young men into its ranks successful the coming years. To galore people, helium said, Hamas is not simply an organisation, but an “idea” that symbolises resistance.

“The [group] has acceptable an illustration for the full Arab world. They fought a warfare that cipher thought they could fight, adjacent though the outgo was precise high,” Keshawi told Al Jazeera.

Still, Lovatt said the radical remains pragmatic and is consenting to marque concessions to widen the ceasefire for arsenic agelong arsenic possible.

He noted that the sustainability of the ceasefire yet hinges connected US President Donald Trump and different Western leaders reining successful Israel and its maximalist demands.

“There is simply a precise precocious hazard that Israel is capable to triumph the statement successful Western capitals … that Hamas indispensable beryllium afloat demilitarised [before the concern ends],” helium said.

“If that happens, past it volition beryllium a caller pretext for Western states to fto Israel disconnected the hook arsenic happened nether the Oslo Accords,” Lovatt told Al Jazeera.