Will Sudan’s RSF turn strategic city of el-Obeid into another el-Fasher?

On the greeting of October 25, arsenic Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces stormed the municipality of Bara successful North Kordofan state, Sadiq Ahmed thought astir his 2 daughters and what would hap to them if helium couldn’t support them.

RSF fighters began raiding homes, looking for loot, arsenic good arsenic women and girls, said Sadiq.

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According to the United Nations and Human Rights Watch, the RSF routinely wields rape arsenic a limb of warfare and kidnaps women and girls to usage arsenic enactment slaves.

When fighters came to Sadiq’s house, helium gave them everything helium owned: money, phones and gold. But helium refused to springiness up his daughters oregon nieces.

“It was a reddish enactment for me. I was prepared to dice to [protect my daughters],” Sadiq, 59, told Al Jazeera.

Sadiq was capable to person the RSF fighters – who are warring the regular service known arsenic the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) – to let his household and his brother’s household to fly town.

They were among astir 39,000 radical uprooted from the immense Kordofan portion owed to a crisp uptick successful unit betwixt October 26 and November 9, according to the United Nations.

However, not everyone was truthful lucky. The Sudan’s Doctor’s Network said that astatine slightest 38 civilians were killed during the RSF’s seizure of Bara, portion different section monitors told Al Jazeera that men of warring property were often accused of “sympathising” with the service and killed.

The adjacent epicentre of conflict

Many of those displaced from Bara ended up with relatives oregon successful open-air camps successful North Kordofan’s capital, el-Obeid, a metropolis astir 59 kilometres (36 miles) east.

El-Obeid is controlled by the SAF, which has been astatine warfare with the RSF since April 2023.

The metropolis is location to the SAF’s strategical airbase and operates arsenic an important buffer to support Sudan’s capital, Khartoum, according to analysts.

El-Obeid has besides absorbed tens of thousands of displaced radical seeking comparative information from the RSF, yet the metropolis whitethorn not beryllium harmless for long.

The RSF is redeploying thousands of fighters to North Kordofan aft capturing North Darfur’s superior el-Fasher past month, according to a leaked RSF papers obtained by Darfur24, a section quality outlet pursuing developments successful the region.

The nomadic “Arab” fighters that mostly marque up the RSF’s ranks besieged el-Fasher for much than 500 days earlier carrying retired a run of violence against sedentary “non-Arab” tribes, successful what galore observers person termed a genocide.

Relief workers, analysts and section monitors fearfulness the RSF could taxable civilians successful el-Obeid to a akin fate.

“My forecast has ever been that el-Obeid volition beryllium nether [RSF] siege by Thanksgiving,” said Nathaniel Raymond, the enforcement manager of the Yale Humanitarian Lab that provides outer imagery investigation of the warfare successful Sudan, referring to the vacation successful the United States that falls connected November 27 this year.

Raymond added that the RSF appears to beryllium trying to archetypal seizure the municipality of Babanusa successful West Kordofan, which it is presently besieging. That way, it tin past usage the municipality to enactment an all-out battle connected el-Obeid.

The RSF volition apt overburden SAF successful Babanusa by launching its wide arsenal of drones from the airdrome successful el-Fasher, Raymond explained.

“Babanusa is truly the past enactment of defence [for the SAF] against the coming onslaught against el-Obeid,” helium told Al Jazeera.

Looming battle

As the battlefield shifts to Kordofan, the SAF is reportedly stepping up recruitment and deploying thousands of recently recruited civilians turned fighters – known arsenic the mobilised oregon “mustanfereen” – to el-Obeid.

SAF precocious opened up a grooming campy successful North Kordofan to enlistee young men anxious to combat against the RSF aft the autumn of el-Fasher, according to Mohamed el-Fatih, a Sudanese writer and expert covering developments crossed the country.

Fighters from SAF-aligned equipped groups – known arsenic the Joint Forces, which were instrumental successful holding disconnected the RSF successful el-Fasher for a twelvemonth and a fractional – are besides contiguous successful el-Obeid, according to a section alleviation idiosyncratic who requested anonymity owed to the tense information environment.

He said that astir civilians don’t permission their homes oregon displacement camps aft sundown retired of fearfulness of being robbed by equipped men connected the street.

Other civilians are reportedly fleeing to neighbouring White Nile state, which connects to the lone roadworthy retired of el-Fasher, according to section monitors.

Hafiz Mohamed, the manager of section quality rights organisation Justice Africa, told Al Jazeera that much radical are trying to get retired earlier the RSF besieges the city.

“Some radical are leaving … due to the fact that they don’t person religion that el-Obeid won’t yet fall. They don’t person assurance successful the army,” helium said.

Mohammed Ibrahim, a civilian servant with the SAF-backed Port Sudan authorities who works for the economical ministry successful el-Obeid, confirmed that civilians were precise frightened of an RSF onslaught aft the radical took el-Fasher.

Many people, helium noted, were considering fleeing further northbound aft a bid of incriminating videos showed RSF fighters perpetrating wide killings and different atrocities successful North Darfur.

“The SAF has sent reinforcements each astir the metropolis … and radical are calmer present … everyone is acceptable to face the RSF if they attack,” helium said.

Outgunned and outmanned?

Despite the SAF’s recruitment thrust to support el-Obeid, it inactive lacks the arsenal and manpower to fortify el-Obeid, according to Raymond, the researcher from Yale.

He said the SAF typically relies connected adjacent aerial cover, either from warplanes oregon helicopters, to assistance crushed infantry. However, implicit the past year, the RSF has acquired man-portable air-defence systems (MANPADS), which are a important menace to low-flying aircraft.

The RSF has had MANPADS since astatine slightest 2024, and they person proven instrumental successful combating SAF’s airpower.

“SAF has 1 play close present and that’s to curl up and hole for siege mode … that’s due to the fact that they nary longer person [air supremacy], which was their biggest advantage,” Raymond told Al Jazeera.

Regional states backing the SAF, specified arsenic Turkiye and Egypt, could measurement up arms shipments to effort and level the playing field.

The former is reported to person sold the SAF its highly regarded Bayraktar drones passim the warfare – weapons that helped it recapture Gezira State and the superior Khartoum from the RSF earlier this year.

In addition, the SAF has precocious requested entree to Egypt’s air-defence systems to sprout down RSF drones.

However, Egypt is acrophobic astir getting straight progressive successful the war, according to an Africa Intelligence report, which specialises successful obtaining geopolitical and concern intelligence.

Their investigation was based connected open-source quality that tracked Egyptian and Turkish cargo flights to Port Sudan, arsenic good arsenic connected defence sources, which assertion to person intimate cognition of the subject readying of some countries.

Yet, adjacent if the SAF acquires caller upgraded weaponry from its allies, it inactive whitethorn not beryllium capable to clasp connected to el-Obeid, said Raymond.

“These weapons are not a panacea,” helium told Al Jazeera.

“The SAF inactive doesn’t person capable men bearing arms to power the immense area. They are moving retired of men,” helium said.