Can divided European powers help end Israel’s war on Iran?

The 3 largest European nations by population, Germany, France and the UK, held talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi successful Geneva, Switzerland, connected Friday, successful an effort to avert a protracted warfare successful the Middle East.

US President Donald Trump, who has said helium volition determine wrong 2 weeks whether to join the battle connected Tehran, denounced the talks with European leaders arsenic a failure.

“Iran doesn’t privation to talk to Europe. They privation to talk to us. Europe is not going to beryllium capable to assistance successful this one,” helium told reporters.

Araghchi had said Iran was not attending the talks successful Geneva to negociate anyway, lone to listen.

However, helium added, “There is nary country for negotiations with the US [either] until the Israeli aggression stops,” arsenic Iran and Israel traded salvoes of missiles and drones.

The US has been Israel’s main state and protagonist successful each its wars, and is the lone state with large subject assets deployed successful the region, which mightiness beryllium capable to change the people of the war.

French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Noel Barrot, British Foreign Secretary David Lammy, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul and European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, conscionable astatine an outdoor terrace array astatine the offices of the honorary Consul of the Federal Republic of Germany successful Geneva, Switzerland June 20, 2025, during a gathering of European overseas ministers [Fabrice Coffrini/Pool via Reuters]

Why are the Europeans getting involved?

Germany, France and the UK – referred to arsenic the E3 successful the discourse of Iran talks – helped negociate a 2015 pact with Iran.

The 2015 treaty, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), saw Iran hold to make lone peaceful atomic programmes and to taxable to autarkic monitoring. Russia, China and the United States besides helped negociate it, arsenic did the UN.

But Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA successful May 2018, during his archetypal word arsenic president. The E3 tried to support the pact live but failed. Iran abandoned it a twelvemonth aft the US did.

On Saturday, the EU precocious commissioner for outer action, Kaja Kallas, who besides attended the talks connected Friday, issued a connection reaffirming “commitment to Israel’s security” and “longstanding concerns astir Iran’s enlargement of its atomic programme, which has nary credible civilian purpose, successful usurpation of astir each the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) provisions”.

But Israel’s warfare successful Gaza has divided the E3 implicit their attack to Israel, weakening European overseas argumentation unity further, though each privation to debar different warfare connected Europe’s doorstep.

How are the E3 divided successful their attack towards Israel?

The E3 positions connected Israel person diverged since Israel’s warfare successful Gaza began successful October 2023.

Germany has remained the astir ardently pro-Israel, refusing to criticise Israel for indiscriminate bombing of civilians successful Gaza and halting its backing to UNWRA, the UN bureau assisting Palestinian refugees, which Israel accuses of aiding Hamas.

Originally pro-Israel, the UK somewhat changed its stance aft Labour’s predetermination triumph past year. Earlier this month, the UK joined 4 different countries successful formally sanctioning Israel’s far-right nationalist information minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, for “incitement of violence” against Palestinians successful the occupied West Bank and Gaza. Israel called the determination “outrageous” and “unacceptable”.

France is adjacent much sceptical towards Israel. It was 1 of 4 EU members that started calling for a Gaza ceasefire successful April past year. A year later, connected April 9, French President Emmanuel Macron said helium would formally recognise the authorities of Palestine wrong months, partially due to the fact that “at immoderate point, it volition beryllium right”, and partially to promote Arab states to recognise Israel. France was reported to beryllium lobbying different European nations to travel suit. Spain, Norway and Ireland each formally recognised Palestine the pursuing month.

What leverage bash the E3 person with Iran oregon Israel?

They are the 3 biggest economies successful Europe, with a corporate gross home merchandise (GDP) of astir $11 trillion.

Two of them, France and the UK, person craft carriers and expeditionary forces that person deployed to the Middle East and North Africa regions. They are besides atomic powers.

Ultimately, though, nary of these things is capable to sway either Iran oregon Israel connected matters of nationalist security. The existent worth of the E3 lies successful their “acceptability” to some Iran and Israel arsenic good-faith mediators and their quality to enactment towards communal goals with the US.

“Germany, France and the UK person attempted to mediate for much than 20 years, and their attack has been milder than that of the US,” George Tzogopoulos, a lecturer successful planetary relations astatine the European Institute successful Nice, told Al Jazeera. “The aforesaid is happening now. We person a warfare crisis, and these 3 prioritise diplomacy for the struggle to halt if imaginable and for negotiations to restart.”

Could the E3 broker a woody betwixt Iran and Israel?

It would beryllium difficult, fixed their nonaccomplishment to resuscitate the JCPOA without the US.

“The main crushed [the E3 failed with the JCPOA] is the conclusion, made by some the Trump administration, President Trump himself, and the Israeli authorities that diplomacy cannot enactment successful the lawsuit of Iran and, therefore, the relation of the 3 was sidelined,” said Tzogopoulos.

But it is besides hard for them to coordinate with the US. Trump has present sidelined his ain quality assemblage to follow the Israeli presumption that Iran is processing a bomb. On Friday, Trump told reporters that his manager of nationalist intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, was “wrong” erstwhile she testified that Iran was not gathering a atomic limb and that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had not re-authorised the country’s suspended atomic weapons programme.

“If Israel has grounds that Iran was dashing for a bomb, I deliberation it needs to travel retired much publically and stock that, due to the fact that cipher other is confirming that assessment,” said Kelsey Davenport, manager for nonproliferation argumentation astatine the Arms Control Association, a nongovernmental organisation based successful the US.

“If determination is immoderate coordination betwixt the US and the E3, we mightiness beryllium much optimistic, but for Europe, for the E3 to enactment autonomously, I wouldn’t stake my wealth connected their imaginable success,” helium said.

“The Europeans person precise debased chances,” agreed Angelos Syrigos, a prof of planetary instrumentality astatine Panteion University successful Athens. “The lone radical who tin intervene earnestly are the Americans. But I don’t cognize if the Iranians are unfastened to that. To person last peace, you usually request a decisive defeat,” helium said, referring to the Yom Kippur War betwixt Israel and Egypt of 1973, which led to the Camp David statement six years later, and US involution successful the Yugoslav War, which led to the Dayton Accord successful 1995. “One enactment has to recognize determination is nary subject solution.”

Could the United Nations Security Council find a diplomatic solution?

No, accidental experts, due to the fact that China, Russia and the US disagree connected Israel and Iran.

“The Security Council won’t find a solution to this,” said Syrigos. “Either the US oregon Russia oregon China volition veto it. The quality is chiefly betwixt the US and China. The Chinese person invested a batch successful Iran successful caller years. That’s wherever they bargain astir of their oil; they nonstop [Iran] materials for atomic weapons. It’s China that is mostly connected to Iran.”

Russia has called connected the US not to onslaught Iran, due to the fact that of the hazard of destabilising the region. But Russia besides does not person the powerfulness to travel to Iran’s aid, said Syrigos.

“Right now, Russia is going on with the US. It doesn’t privation to get involved. It hasn’t the power. So, it’s turning a necessity into a voluntary act,” helium said.

“The logic of warfare volition usher diplomatic efforts astatine this point, and we cannot cognize however the warfare volition go, oregon the grade of the harm to Iran’s atomic programme,” said Tzogopoulos.