‘Change is inevitable’: What is next for Iran?

Protests successful Iran person petered out. Tens of thousands person been arrested. And those accused of supporting the unrest person had concern assets seized and are being pursued connected “terrorism” charges. The authorities – for present – person reasserted control.

Yet, successful the shadiness of the evident calm, the precise aforesaid grievances that sparked the unrest remain, leaving Iran with small prime but to marque pugnacious compromises to triumph sanctions alleviation and hole the system oregon look further upheaval, experts say. With a battered economy, a weakened web of determination allies and the looming menace of a US attack, Iran is astatine a crossroads.

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“This is not a unchangeable presumption quo – it’s conscionable not tenable,” said Ali Vaez, manager of the Iran Project astatine the International Crisis Group. “I americium not predicting that the strategy volition deed stone bottommost tomorrow, but it’s successful a spiral and from this constituent on, it tin lone spell down if it refuses to change”.

The caller demonstrations erupted successful precocious December erstwhile protests implicit a currency illness morphed into a nationwide upheaval calling for the overthrow of the Islamic republic – Iran’s strategy of governance.

The authorities’ effect led to 1 of the astir convulsive confrontations since the country’s 1979 revolution.

Iranian authorities media said the protests had left 3,117 radical dead, including 2,427 civilians and members of the information forces. US-based quality rights activists accidental that much than 4,500 radical person been killed. Al Jazeera was not capable to independently verify the figures.

Economic crisis

Protests successful past years, specified arsenic the unrest sparked by a substance terms hike successful 2019 oregon the women-led demonstrations successful 2022, were followed by the authorities dispensing subsidies and loosening up connected societal restrictions. But this clip around, it has constricted options for addressing the distress that sparked the caller demonstrations.

Due to decades of planetary sanctions, arsenic good arsenic mismanagement and corruption, the Iranian rial’s worth has nose-dived, and lipid revenues person shrunk. Inflation past twelvemonth peaked astatine much than 42 percent, according to International Monetary Fund data. By comparison, the complaint was astatine 6.8 successful 2016 – a twelvemonth aft Iran and satellite powers signed a woody that curbed Iran’s atomic activities successful speech for sanctions relief. US President Donald Trump pulled retired of the woody successful 2018 – during his archetypal word successful bureau – and reimposed sanctions.

On apical of that, Iran suffers from energy outages and chronic h2o shortages, making beingness progressively hard for the mean citizen.

A photograph shows the wreckage of a burned autobus bearing a banner that reads ‘This was 1 of Tehran’s caller buses that was paid for with the wealth of the people’s taxes’, successful Tehran [File: Atta Kenare/AFP]

To get immoderate sanctions relief, Iran needs to negociate a woody with the Trump administration. But that would necessitate Khamenei making concessions connected what person been Iran’s halfway overseas argumentation pillars, namely its atomic programme, ballistic missiles and supporting a web of allies crossed the region.

They person been cardinal components of Iran’s “forward defence” strategy – a subject doctrine aimed astatine preventing warring from reaching Iranian territory. Changes to immoderate of these elements would correspond a profound displacement successful the information architecture built up by Khamenei. While successful the past, the ultimate person has shown openness to partially curbing the atomic programme, concessions implicit missiles and the alleged axis of resistance person been non-negotiable.

“It is unclear whether Iran is consenting to formally judge restrictions” connected these 3 elements, said Mohammad Ali Shabani, an Iran expert and exertion of quality tract Amwaj.media. “As Trump has threatened a renewed bombing run if Iran resumes enrichment, Khamenei seems paralysed successful his decision-making,” helium added.

Trump has said that helium wants Iran to dismantle its atomic infrastructure entirely, an enactment that Iran has ruled out, insisting that its enrichment programme is for civilian purposes.

Concerning enactment for non-state actors successful the region, Iran has been moving connected reconfiguring that web pursuing the warfare past June with Israel, said Halireza Azizi, visiting chap astatine the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

Israel has, successful the past fewer years, degraded the arsenal and decapitated the enactment of what was Iran’s strongest state successful the region, Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Non-state actors successful Iraq person go much progressive successful that country’s governmental strategy and, therefore, much cautious, and the authorities of Bashar al-Assad successful Syria has collapsed. And finally, Iran itself was straight attacked by Israel, the archetypal clip it has faced a full-scale onslaught from its main determination enemy.

After that war, a heated statement connected the existent payment of moving with non-state actors ensued successful Iran, Azizi said. The statement that prevailed was that Iranian ungraded had been struck lone aft determination allies were weakened, and not before.

“So the argumentation [now] is to treble down and effort to revive that network” with immoderate modification, Azizi said.

The focus, helium said, has shifted to moving with smaller groups successful Iraq, find caller ways to transportation weapons to Hezbollah and trust much connected the Houthis successful Yemen. It is excessively soon, and accusation is excessively limited, to measure whether the protests and the menace of a US onslaught person changed that calculus, but authoritative channels bespeak that determination person been nary modifications.

Iranian demonstrators stitchery successful a thoroughfare during a protestation implicit the illness of the currency’s value, successful Tehran, Iran, January 8, 2026 [File: WANA via Reuters]

Is alteration inevitable?

Talks betwixt Iran and the US are not disconnected the table. At the tallness of the protests, tensions soared aft Trump hinted that helium was astir to onslaught Iran implicit what helium said was Iran’s brutal crackdown. But helium toned down the rhetoric aft Gulf Arab nations pushed him to refrain from attacking Iran – a determination they fearfulness would plunge the portion into chaos.

On Thursday, Trump signalled that channels betwixt Washington and Tehran were open. “Iran does privation to talk, and we’ll talk,” helium said during a code astatine the World Economic Forum successful Davos.

But his remarks came arsenic the US moves subject assets to the Middle East, apt an effort to strong-arm Iran into a deal. “We person a monolithic fleet heading successful that direction, and possibly we won’t person to usage them,” Trump said connected Friday.

Still, should Iran extremity up making large concessions, the cognition of information and legitimacy whitethorn beryllium hard to restore. For years, the implicit societal declaration betwixt the Iranian radical and the strategy has been based connected the warrant of information astatine the disbursal of societal and governmental freedom. But that pillar of legitimacy was shattered by past year’s warfare with Israel, erstwhile astatine slightest 610 radical were killed successful Iran implicit 12 days.

“The societal declaration betwixt authorities and nine successful Iran has withered implicit the decades, and with the disruptions to basal services implicit the past twelvemonth amid energy and h2o crises, the proviso of information is present besides nether question,” Shabani said. “To guarantee its longevity, the Islamic Republic is frankincense faced with the broader situation of having to explicate to the nationalist what it tin provide, and wherefore it indispensable proceed to exist”.

According to Azizi, a translation has already started with the governmental strategy moving from a clerical into a subject enactment arsenic the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – an elite unit established aft the 1979 Islamic Revolution – has grown into the country’s astir almighty economical and governmental actor.

“After the decease oregon removal of Khamenei, we are not going to spot the Islamic Republic arsenic we cognize it,” Azizi said.

“Whether that it’s gonna springiness much impetus to the radical to travel to the streets to initiate authorities change, oregon it’s going to effect successful a Soviet-style script of authorities translation with the information constitution reemerging successful a antithetic form, that is an unfastened question, but alteration is inevitable.”