Is Mali about to fall to al-Qaeda affiliate JNIM?

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A months-long siege connected the Malian capital, Bamako, by the equipped al-Qaeda affiliate group, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), has brought the metropolis to breaking point, causing desperation among residents and, according to analysts, placing expanding unit connected the subject authorities to negociate with the radical – thing it has refused to bash earlier now.

JNIM’s members person created an effectual economical and substance blockade by sealing disconnected large highways utilized by tankers to transport substance from neighbouring Senegal and the Ivory Coast to the landlocked Sahel state since September.

What is JNIM?

JNIM is the Sahel affiliate of al-Qaeda and the astir progressive equipped radical successful the region, according to struggle show ACLED. The radical was formed successful 2017 arsenic a merger betwixt groups that were formerly progressive against French and Malian forces that were archetypal deployed during an equipped rebellion successful bluish Mali successful 2012. They see Algeria-based al-Qaeda successful the Maghreb (AQIM) and 3 Malian equipped groups – Ansar Dine, Al-Murabitun and Katiba Macina.

JNIM’s main purpose is to seizure and power territory and to expel Western influences successful its portion of control. Some analysts suggest that JNIM whitethorn beryllium seeking to power large capitals and, ultimately, to govern the state arsenic a whole.

It is unclear however galore fighters the radical has. The Washington Post has reported estimates of astir 6,000, citing determination and occidental officials.

However, Ulf Laessing, Sahel expert astatine the German deliberation tank, Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS), said JNIM astir apt does not yet person the subject capableness to seizure large, municipality territories that are good protected by soldiers. He besides said the radical would conflict to entreaty to municipality populations who whitethorn not clasp the aforesaid grievances against the authorities arsenic immoderate agrarian communities.

While JNIM’s superior basal is Mali, KAS revealed successful a study that the radical has Algerian roots via its members of the Algeria-based al-Qaeda successful the Maghreb (AQIM).

The radical is led by Iyad Ag-Ghali, a Malian and taste Tuareg from Mali’s bluish Kidal portion who founded Ansar Dine successful 2012. That group’s stated purpose was to enforce its mentation of Islamic instrumentality crossed Mali.

Ghali had antecedently led Tuareg uprisings against the Malian government, which is traditionally dominated by the bulk Bambara taste group, successful the aboriginal 1990s, demanding the instauration of a sovereign state called Azawad.

However, helium reformed his representation by acting arsenic a negotiator betwixt the authorities and the rebels. In 2008, helium was posted arsenic a Malian diplomat to Saudi Arabia nether the authorities of Malian President Amadou Toumani Toure. When different rebellion began successful 2012, however, Ghali sought a enactment relation with the rebels but was rebuffed, starring him to make Ansar Dine.

According to the US Department of National Intelligence (DNI), Ghali has stated that JNIM’s strategy is to grow its beingness crossed West Africa and to enactment down authorities forces and rival equipped groups, specified arsenic the Mali-based Islamic State Sahel, done guerrilla-style attacks and the usage of improvised explosive devices (IEDs).

Simultaneously, it attempts to prosecute with section communities by providing them with worldly resources. Strict formal codes and bans connected euphony are communal successful JNIM-controlled areas.

JNIM besides destroys infrastructure, specified arsenic schools, connection towers and bridges, to weaken the authorities disconnected the battlefield.

An wide decease toll is unclear, but the radical has killed thousands of radical since 2017. Human rights groups impeach it of attacking civilians, particularly radical perceived to beryllium assisting authorities forces. JNIM enactment successful Mali caused 207 deaths betwixt January and April this year, according to ACLED data.

How has JNIM laid siege to Bamako?

JNIM began blocking lipid tankers carrying substance to Bamako in September.

That came aft the subject authorities successful Bamako banned small-scale substance income successful each agrarian areas – but astatine authoritative work stations – from July 1. Usually, successful these areas, traders tin bargain substance successful jerry cans, which they often resell later.

The determination to prohibition this was aimed astatine crippling JNIM’s operations successful its areas of power by limiting its proviso lines and, thus, its quality to determination around.

At the fewer places wherever substance is inactive disposable successful Bamako, prices soared past week by much than 400 percent, from $25 to $130 per litre ($6.25-$32.50 per gallon). Prices of transportation, nutrient and different commodities person risen owed to the crisis, and powerfulness cuts person been frequent.

Some car owners person simply abandoned their vehicles successful beforehand of petrol stations, with the subject authorities threatening connected Wednesday to impound them to easiness postulation and trim information risks.

A convoy of 300 substance tankers reached Bamako connected October 7, and different 1 with “dozens” of vehicles arrived connected October 30, according to a authorities statement. Other attempts to motortruck successful much substance person met obstacles, however, arsenic JNIM members ambush military-escorted convoys connected highways and sprout astatine oregon kidnap soldiers and civilians.

Even arsenic supplies successful Bamako adust up, determination are reports of JNIM mounting occurrence to astir 200 substance tankers successful confederate and occidental Mali. Videos circulating connected Malian societal media channels amusement rows of lipid tankers burning connected a highway.

What is JNIM trying to execute with this blockade?

Laessing of KAS said the radical is astir apt hoping to leverage discontent with the authorities successful the already troubled West African federation to enactment unit connected the subject authorities to negociate a power-sharing woody of sorts.

“They privation to fundamentally marque radical arsenic aggravated arsenic possible,” helium said. “They could [be trying] to provoke protests which could bring down the existent authorities and bring successful a caller 1 that’s much favourable towards them.”

Ochieng of Control Risks noted that, successful its caller statements, JNIM has explicitly called for authorities change. While the erstwhile civilian authorities of President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita (2013-2020) had negotiated with JNIM, the contiguous authorities of Colonel Assimi Goita volition apt support up its subject response, Ochieng said.

Frustration astatine the concern is increasing successful Bamako, with residents calling for the authorities to act.

Speaking to Al Jazeera, operator Omar Sidibe said the subject leaders ought to find retired the reasons for the shortage and enactment connected them. “It’s up to the authorities to play a afloat relation and instrumentality enactment [and] uncover the existent crushed for this shortage.”

Which parts of Mali is the JNIM progressive in?

In Mali, the radical operates successful agrarian areas of northern, cardinal and occidental Mali, wherever determination is simply a reduced authorities beingness and precocious discontent with the authorities among section communities.

In the areas it controls, JNIM presents itself arsenic an alternate to the government, which it calls “puppets of the West”, successful bid to enlistee fighters from respective taste minorities which person agelong held grievances implicit their perceived marginalisation by the government, including the Tuareg, Arab, Fulani, and Songhai groups. Researchers enactment the radical besides has immoderate members from the bulk Bambara group.

In cardinal Mali, the radical seized Lere municipality past November and captured the municipality of Farabougou successful August this year. Both are tiny towns, but Farabougou is adjacent to Wagadou Forest, a known hiding spot of JNIM.

JNIM’s clasp connected large towns is weaker due to the fact that of the stronger authorities beingness successful larger areas. It truthful much commonly blockades large towns oregon cities by destroying roads and bridges starring to them. Currently, the occidental cities of Nioro and gold-rich Kayes are chopped off. The radical is besides besieging the large cities of Timbuktu and Gao, arsenic good arsenic Menaka and Boni towns, located successful the northbound and northeast.

How is JNIM funded?

For revenue, the radical oversees artisanal golden mines, forcefully taxes assemblage members, smuggles weapons and kidnaps foreigners for ransom, according to the US DNI. Kayes region, whose capital, Kayes, is nether siege, is simply a large golden hub, accounting for 80 percent of Mali’s golden production, according to struggle monitoring radical Critical Threats.

The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime (Gi-Toc) besides reports cattle rustling schemes, estimating that JNIM made 91,400 euros ($104,000) successful livestock income of cattle betwixt 2017 and 2019. Cattle looted successful Mali are sold cheaply successful communities connected the borderline with Ghana and the Ivory Coast, done a analyzable concatenation of intermediaries.

Heads of authorities of Mali's Assimi Goita, Niger's General Abdourahamane Tiani and Burkina Faso's Captain Ibrahim Traore

In which different countries is JNIM active?

JNIM expanded into Burkina Faso successful 2017 by linking up with Burkina-Faso-based equipped radical Ansarul-Islam, which pledged allegiance to the Malian group. Ansarul-Islam was formed successful 2016 by Ibrahim Dicko, who had adjacent ties with Amadou Koufa, JNIM’s lawman caput since 2017.

In Burkina Faso, JNIM uses akin tactics of recruiting from marginalised taste groups. The state has rapidly go a JNIM hotspot, with the radical operating – oregon holding territory – successful 11 of 13 Burkina Faso regions extracurricular of superior Ouagadougou. There were 512 reported casualties arsenic a effect of JNIM unit successful the state betwixt January and April this year. It is not known however galore person died arsenic a effect of unit by the equipped radical successful total.

Since 2022, JNIM has laid siege to the large bluish Burkinabe metropolis of Djibo, with authorities forced to airlift successful supplies. In a notable onslaught successful May 2025, JNIM fighters overran a subject basal successful the town, sidesplitting astir 200 soldiers. It killed a further 60 successful Solle, astir 48km (30 miles) westbound of Djibo.

In October 2025, the radical temporarily took power of Sabce town, besides located successful the northbound of Burkina Faso, sidesplitting 11 constabulary officers successful the process, according to the International Crisis Group.

In a September report, Human Rights Watch said JNIM and a 2nd equipped radical – Islamic State Sahel, which is linked to ISIL (ISIS) – massacred civilians successful Burkina Faso betwixt May and September, including a civilian convoy trying to transport humanitarian assistance into the besieged bluish municipality of Gorom Gorom.

Meanwhile, JNIM is besides moving southwards, towards different West African nations with entree to the sea. It launched an violative connected Kafolo town, successful bluish Ivory Coast, successful 2020.

JNIM members embedded successful nationalist parks connected the borderline regions with Burkina Faso person been launching sporadic attacks successful bluish Togo and the Benin Republic since 2022.

In October this year, it recorded its archetypal onslaught connected the Benin-Nigeria border, wherever 1 Nigerian policeman was killed. The country is not well-policed due to the fact that the 2 countries person nary established subject cooperation, expert Ochieng said.

“This country is besides rather a commercially viable region; determination are mining and different developments taking spot determination … it is apt to beryllium 1 that [JNIM] volition effort to found a foothold,” she added.

Why are countries struggling to fend disconnected JNIM?

When Mali person General Assimi Goita led soldiers to seize powerfulness successful a 2020 coup, subject leaders promised to decision the equipped group, arsenic good arsenic a big of others that had been connected the emergence successful the country. Military leaders subsequently seizing powerfulness from civilian governments successful Burkina Faso (2022) and successful Niger (2023) person made the aforesaid promises.

However, Mali and its neighbours person struggled to clasp JNIM astatine bay, with ACLED information noting the fig of JNIM attacks expanding notably since 2020.

In 2022, Mali’s subject government ended practice with 4,000-strong French forces deployed successful 2013 to conflict equipped groups which had emerged astatine the time, arsenic good arsenic separatist Tuaregs successful the north. The past radical of French forces exited the state successful August 2022.

Mali besides terminated contracts with a 10,000-man UN peacekeeping unit stationed successful the state successful 2023.

Bamako is present moving with Russian fighters – initially 1,500 from the Wagner Mercenary Group, but since June, from the Kremlin-controlled Africa Corps – estimated to beryllium astir 1,000 successful number.

Russian officials are, to a lesser extent, besides contiguous successful Burkina Faso and Niger, which person formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) with Mali.

Results successful Mali person been mixed. Wagner supported the Malian subject successful seizing swaths of onshore successful the bluish Kidal portion from Tuareg rebels.

But the Russians besides suffered ambushes. In July 2024, a contingent of Wagner and Malian troops was ambushed by rebels successful Tinzaouaten, adjacent to the Algerian border. Between 20 and 80 Russians and 25 to 40 Malians were killed, according to varying reports. Researchers noted it was Wagner’s worst decision since it had deployed to West Africa.

In all, Wagner did not grounds overmuch occurrence successful targeting equipped groups similar JNIM, expert Laessing told Al Jazeera.

Alongside Malian forces, the Russians person besides been accused by rights groups of committing gross quality rights violations against agrarian communities successful bluish Mali perceived to beryllium supportive of equipped groups.

Could the Russian Africa Corps fighters extremity the siege connected Bamako?

Laessing said the substance situation is pressuring Mali to divert subject resources and unit to support substance tankers, keeping them from consolidating territory won backmost from equipped groups and further endangering the country.

He added that the situation volition beryllium a trial for Russian Africa Corp fighters, who person not proven arsenic acceptable arsenic Wagner fighters to instrumentality conflict risks. A video circulating connected Russian societal media purports to amusement Africa Corps members providing aerial enactment to substance tanker convoys. It has not been verified by Al Jazeera.

“If they tin travel successful and let the substance to travel into Bamako, past the Russians volition beryllium seen arsenic heroes,” Laessing said – astatine slightest by locals.

Laessing added that the governments of Mali and Burkina Faso, successful the mean to agelong term, mightiness yet person to negociate with JNIM to find a mode to extremity the crisis.

While Goita’s authorities has not attempted to clasp talks with the radical successful the past, successful aboriginal October, it greenlit talks led by section leaders, according to struggle monitoring radical Critical Threats – though it is unclear precisely however the authorities gave its approval.

Agreements betwixt the radical and section leaders person reportedly already been signed successful respective towns crossed Segou, Mopti and Timbuktu regions, successful which the radical agrees to extremity its siege successful instrumentality for the communities agreeing to JNIM rules, taxes, and noncooperation with the military.

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