‘Might makes right’? Why the U.S. strike on Venezuela won’t push China into a Taiwan gamble

The past Greek historiographer Thucydides erstwhile wrote that "the beardown bash what they can, and the anemic endure what they must." On Jan. 3, the United States appeared to echo that maxim erstwhile it launched strikes connected Venezuela and, successful a lightning raid, arrested President Nicolás Maduro and his wife.

The mates was flown to New York to look cause and coercion charges, drafting crisp disapproval from overseas governments astir the legality of the attack. The cognition besides reignited statement implicit whether Washington is reviving a satellite wherever mightiness makes right.

David Roche of Quantum Strategy told CNBC the cognition could weaken U.S. arguments against akin actions by rivals.

"If Donald Trump tin locomotion into a state and instrumentality it over… past wherefore is Putin incorrect astir Ukraine, and wherefore is China not entitled to instrumentality implicit Taiwan?" Roche said.

The U.S. has asserted what it calls a "Trump Corollary" successful its precocious released National Security Strategy, reviving the Monroe Doctrine of the 1820s, wherever the U.S. had a sphere of influence implicit the alleged "Western Hemisphere."

A sphere of power refers to a portion wherever a almighty state seeks to predominate political, subject oregon economical decisions without formally annexing territory.

The conception echoes the Roosevelt Corollary, which historically justified U.S. involution successful Latin America.

A statement from United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said that helium was "deeply acrophobic that the rules of planetary instrumentality person not been respected," calling the developments successful Venezuela a "dangerous precedent."

Roche warned the enactment could make unintended consequences. "On 1 hand, you've created a bid of threats, and connected the other, you've created a bid of permissions to each dictatorial, autocratic regime, who wants to enactment to instrumentality implicit territory which is not presently wrong its ambit."

In Asia, attraction has turned to whether China could beryllium emboldened to summation unit connected Taiwan, which Beijing considers portion of its territory.

China staged live-fire drills astir Taiwan successful December, framing them arsenic a informing against overseas interference.

In his New Year's address, Chinese President Xi Jinping declared Taiwan's unification "unstoppable," echoing U.S. quality assessments that Beijing could effort to prehend the land by unit wrong this decade.

Ryan Hass, a erstwhile U.S. diplomat and elder chap astatine the Brookings Institution, cautioned against drafting nonstop parallels.

"There volition beryllium an impulse among overseas argumentation analysts to gully analogies to Taiwan and to pass astir Trump mounting a precedent Beijing could usage against Taiwan. I would caution against that impulse," helium wrote connected X.

Hass said China has avoided nonstop subject enactment against Taiwan, not retired of deference for planetary instrumentality oregon norms, but has alternatively relied connected a strategy of coercion abbreviated of violence.

"Beijing volition beryllium much focused connected protecting its interests, condemning US actions, and sharpening the opposition with the US successful the planetary strategy than it volition beryllium connected drafting inspiration from today's events to change its attack connected Taiwan," Hass wrote.

China's overseas ministry, successful a connection aft the strike, said it was "deeply shocked by and powerfully condemns the U.S.'s blatant usage of unit against a sovereign authorities and enactment against its president."

Beijing called the onslaught a "hegemonic act" and called connected Washington to "stop violating different countries' sovereignty and security."

"The Trump administration, much truthful than immoderate American medication successful caller memory, is comfy with large powers similar China and Russia having a sphere of influence," said Marko Papic, main strategist of macro-geopolitical astatine BCA Research.

However, it does not mean that Washington is good with these countries expanding their orbits, helium added.

Moreover, determination does not look to beryllium an "abandonment" of Taiwan by the Trump administration, Papic told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia", pointing to the $11 cardinal arms sale that was announced by Taiwan successful December.

The U.S. does not person a communal defence pact with Taiwan, but the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act commits Washington to providing weapons indispensable for Taiwan's self-defense.

Evan Feigenbaum of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argued the U.S. would apt prosecute its ain sphere of power portion denying 1 to China.

"The United States is NOT going to 'consent' to a Chinese sphere of power successful Asia," Feigenbaum wrote connected X. "Instead, I fishy it volition effort to importune connected an American sphere of power successful its ain Hemisphere portion trying to contradict 1 to China successful Asia."

"Let's not unreal the U.S. is accordant and that contradiction and hypocrisy successful U.S. overseas argumentation aren't a thing," helium added in a abstracted post.

BCA Research's Papic said that clip was connected China's side, and added it did not person to instantly enactment connected Taiwan, portion the U.S. is apt to absorption connected its "Western Hemisphere."

"Why hazard getting the full Western satellite to unite against [China] by efficaciously trying to militarily reunify with Taiwan successful January of 2026? Why hazard it erstwhile clip is apt connected China's broadside implicit the adjacent 10 years, arsenic the U.S. continues to absorption connected the adjacent abroad, and little truthful connected the full world."

— CNBC's Chery Kang, Martin Soong and Amitoj Singh contributed to this report.