Prediction markets see government shutdown lasting nearly two weeks

Traders successful prediction markets are betting that the U.S. authorities shutdown could resistance connected for astir 2 weeks, with likelihood rising that Congress volition not scope a woody until astatine slightest mid-October.

On Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market, the existent forecast implies the stoppage volition past 11.1 days, up sharply successful caller days arsenic negotiations connected Capitol Hill person stalled.

On Polymarket, traders spot the highest likelihood that the authorities won't reopen until Oct. 15 oregon later, with that result carrying astir a 38% probability. By comparison, likelihood of a solution successful the Oct. 6-9 model basal astatine 23%, portion Oct. 10-14 carries 22%. Only 14% of traders expect lawmakers to onslaught a woody successful the coming days, betwixt October 3–5.

The afloat shutdown began aboriginal Wednesday greeting aft apical Democrats and Republicans, including President Donald Trump, failed to hold connected a short-term woody to support the authorities funded. It sets the signifier for the furlough of hundreds of thousands of national workers and the shuttering of a slew of cardinal programs and services.

The magnitude of a authorities closure matters as a longer-than-normal stoppage could measurement connected an already fragile system and enactment unit connected a banal marketplace adjacent grounds highs.

Government shutdowns connected mean past astir 14 days, based connected information from Bank of America going backmost to 1990. And portion the S&P 500 has averaged a 1% increase during these events, a prolonged closure this clip could rattle markets.