Russia unlikely to risk ‘reputation failure’ by intervening in Iran unrest

The Kremlin is assured that mass protests successful Iran person peaked, and Tehran’s enactment has managed to squash home absorption to its rule, according to 1 of Russia’s pre-eminent experts connected Iran.

Russia’s embassy successful Tehran seemingly informed Moscow that the protests person died down and that the Kremlin “can respire a suspiration of relief”, Nikita Smagin told Al Jazeera.

The protests implicit economical hardships erupted connected December 28, spreading to hundreds of cities and towns passim the sanctions-hit federation of much than 90 million.

Iranian instrumentality enforcement squashed them, perchance violently, and Moscow “thinks that thing threatens Iran from within”, said Smagin, who fled Russia aft its 2022 penetration of Ukraine.

On Tuesday, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned “the amerciable Western pressure” and lambasted the unnamed “external forces” that strive to “destabilise and destroy” the Islamic Republic.

“The notorious methods of ‘colour revolutions’ are being used, erstwhile specifically trained and equipped provocateurs crook peaceful protests into cruel and senseless lawlessness, pogroms, the sidesplitting of instrumentality enforcement officers and mean citizens, including children,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mariya Zakharova claimed.

She utilized a decades-old Kremlin mantra astir “colour revolutions” allegedly organised and paid for by the West successful erstwhile Soviet nations of Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan successful the aboriginal 2000s to topple Moscow-friendly authoritarian governments.

The threats from United States President Donald Trump to interfere successful the Iranian protests are “categorically unacceptable”, Zakharova said, adding that the “decline successful the artificially-instigated protests” whitethorn pb to stabilisation successful Iran.

On Tuesday, Trump urged Iranians to “take implicit institutions” and claimed that US “help is connected its way”.

On January 2, helium wrote: “We are locked and loaded and acceptable to go,” and successful June, called Ayatollah Ali Khamenei an “easy target”.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has not commented connected the protests – conscionable arsenic helium ignored the January 3 abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Moscow’s closest state successful Latin America.

Despite the condemnation of Trump’s threats, Moscow “can hardly bash thing astir it”, Smagin said.

Prior to its Foreign Ministry’s rhetorical fireworks connected Tuesday, for astir 2 weeks, Moscow was soundless astir the protests.

The Kremlin was not definite that Khamenei’s medication would past and that immoderate harsh statements “would hinder the mending of ties with caller authorities” that could person replaced it, Smagin claimed.

Russia’s presumption appears akin to its effect to the toppling of erstwhile Syrian President Bashar al-Assad successful December 2024.

In October 2025, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa visited Moscow and pledged to “honour” the deals al-Assad had made with Russia, including vigor contracts and the beingness of Russian aerial unit and naval bases.

To an perceiver successful Ukraine, Moscow’s fuming astir “colour revolutions” is simply a bushed cliche.

Russia interprets “any protests against dictatorship and wide rallies for democratisation arsenic a effect of outer meddling”, Kyiv-based expert Vyacheslav Likhachev told Al Jazeera.

Later, the pro-Kremlin figures utilized the word to picture fashionable uprisings elsewhere, including the Arab Spring protests of the aboriginal 2010s that toppled Moscow-friendly leaders successful Egypt and Libya.

Similarly, immoderate protests successful Russia were seen arsenic instigated by “foreign ill-wishers”, Likhachev said.

Iran has accused overseas nations of being down the unrest. A tv transmission successful Israel that is aligned with the authorities claimed that “foreign agents” had equipped Iranian protesters.

Several analysts have told Al Jazeera successful caller days that portion the protesters person morganatic concerns, they judge Israel is playing a relation successful inflaming the tensions.

More than 100 information unit person been killed successful 2 weeks of unrest, Iran’s authorities media has reported, portion absorption activists accidental the decease toll is higher and includes thousands of protesters. Al Jazeera cannot independently verify the figures; the net has been chopped disconnected successful Iran for 5 days.

Russia volition not hazard ‘another estimation failure’, says erstwhile diplomat

Centuries-old Russia-Iran ties person not ever been cordial.

Russian tsars spot disconnected immense chunks of Iranian territory that present represent Russia’s Northern Caucasus and the ex-Soviet republics of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia.

Communist Moscow strove to crook bluish Iran into a “Soviet republic” successful the aboriginal 1920s, concisely advocated for the independency of Iranian Kurds, and sought to power Tehran’s lipid reserves aft World War II.

But post-Soviet Moscow became Tehran’s main planetary backer, shielding it from United Nations’ resolutions and Western sanctions, gathering its Bushehr atomic powerfulness presumption and supplying it with blase weaponry.

The second included the “advanced” S-400 aerial defence systems that failed, however, to repel Israeli and US drone and rocket strikes connected Iran’s atomic infrastructure past June.

In return, Tehran aided Moscow’s warfare effort successful Ukraine by supplying drones, artillery shells, mortar mines, tiny gliding bombs and, reportedly, ballistic missiles.

But the 20-year “strategic partnership” statement that Russia and Iran inked a twelvemonth agone did not foresee subject assistance. Moscow’s words connected Trump’s threats did not adjacent magnitude to “sabre-rattling”, a erstwhile Russian diplomat said.

“Why rattle sabres if it volition lone effect successful yet different estimation failure?” Boris Bondarev, who discontinue his Foreign Ministry occupation to protestation the penetration of Ukraine, told Al Jazeera.

The Kremlin is excessively acrophobic the White House could suffer involvement successful its galore concessions connected the Ukraine warfare – portion Trump does not request Moscow to hold to his imaginable actions successful Iran, Bondarev said.

“What does Russia person to respond with? Withdraw troops from Ukraine and nonstop them [to Iran]? Threaten Trump truthful that helium wholly loses involvement towards Russia and the ‘deal’?” helium asked rhetorically.

Western sanctions support hobbling Russia’s economy, portion mean Russians are exhausted by the deaths connected the Ukrainian beforehand line, aerial raid sirens, airdrome shutdowns, galloping prices, pervasive propaganda and repression.

“Iran? What Iran? We’re engaged surviving. My lad is grieving the blocking of [popular online game] Roblox, my hubby hardly earns capable for our owe payments. Don’t pester maine with questions astir Iran,” Irina, a parent of 2 from the Urals Mountains metropolis of Yekaterinburg, told Al Jazeera.

She withheld her past sanction for information concerns.

But a renowned pro-Kremlin analyst, Sergey Markov, optimistically predicted Moscow’s assistance to “reform” Iran aft the protests are over.

“The protests volition beryllium suppressed, but problems volition remain. That’s wherefore Iran awaits reforms. It would beryllium close if Russia could assistance Iran with proposal connected reforms – proposal some governmental and successful governmental technologies,” Markov wrote connected Telegram connected Sunday.