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On December 16, Sudanese governmental parties, equipped movements, civilian nine organisations, and salient governmental figures signed a nine-point governmental roadmap successful Nairobi, presenting it arsenic a civilian-led inaugural aimed astatine ending Sudan’s warfare and restoring a antiauthoritarian transition.
Framed arsenic an antiwar, pro-peace platform, it seeks to presumption civilians arsenic a “third pole” against the 2 subject actors successful Sudan’s conflict: the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
Its authors accidental it represents an effort to reclaim governmental bureau for civilians aft months of marginalisation by equipped actors and overseas mediators, adjacent though the declaration does not outline immoderate factual steps towards subject reform.
The roadmap reignited longstanding debates wrong Sudanese governmental and civic circles astir representation, legitimacy, and the persistent dominance of elite-driven civilian politics.
The roadmap
The Nairobi declaration emerged aft a connection released by the Quad – Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the United States – successful September.
The Quad connection called for an contiguous three-month truce to pb to a imperishable ceasefire, humanitarian entree to assistance civilians, and the instauration of a governmental process for a civilian transition.
It besides emphasised excluding remnants of erstwhile President Omar al-Bashir’s authorities and reforming Sudan’s information forces nether civilian oversight, each points that the Nairobi declaration echoed.
The Nairobi signatories included the National Umma Party, the Sudanese Congress Party, civilian nine organisations – including the Darfur Lawyers Association and the Coordination of Internally Displaced Persons and Refugees – and the Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM-AW) led by Abdelwahid al-Nur.
Former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, who led Sudan’s transitional civilian authorities from al-Bashir’s overthrow successful 2019 until the October 2021 subject coup by the SAF and the RSF moving successful concert, besides signed the declaration.
It was likewise endorsed by al-Nur, longtime person of the SLM-AW equipped radical that controls Jebel Marra successful Darfur and has historically rejected what helium describes arsenic “elite-driven” governmental settlements.
Falling short
Sudanese researcher Hamid Khalafallah told Al Jazeera that contempt the intent to contiguous a civilian leadership, the declaration falls abbreviated of reflecting Sudan’s broader civic movement.
The Nairobi coalition, helium argued, mirrors earlier civilian formations that failed to link with Sudanese citizens, peculiarly those astir affected by the war.
“It’s successful galore ways a reproduction of erstwhile groups that person … struggled to correspond the Sudanese people,” helium said. “It’s inactive precise overmuch an elite radical that does authorities successful the aforesaid mode they ever have.”
Although absorption committees – neighbourhood groups that emerged from Sudan’s protestation question and helped topple al-Bashir successful 2019 – were referenced successful the declaration, nary committees formally endorsed oregon signed it.
Former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, left, and Abdelwahid al-Nur met successful 2019 successful Khartoum [File: Embassy of France successful Sudan/Facebook]Drafts were reportedly shared with immoderate grassroots groups, but the process precocious without waiting for corporate deliberation – reinforcing concerns that civilians connected the crushed stay politically instrumentalised alternatively than empowered.
While al-Nur’s information was hailed by immoderate arsenic a breakthrough, Khalafallah questioned the underlying motivation, arguing that his inclusion was intended to counterbalance rival military-aligned forces alternatively than alteration civilian politics.
Before the Nairobi declaration, determination were 3 main civilian coalitions successful Sudan, each aligned with a warring enactment oregon accused of specified an alliance.
Tasis is the conjugation of governmental parties and equipped movements that was founded successful February 2025, earlier forming the RSF’s parallel authorities successful July 2025, portion the Democratic Bloc is simply a grouping of parties and equipped groups aligned with the SAF.
Finally comes Hamdok’s Sumoud, comprising governmental parties and civilian nine organisations and accused by SAF of supporting the RSF.
Europe’s one-track civilian strategy
European officials person distanced themselves from the Nairobi initiative.
A elder European Union diplomat, speaking connected information of anonymity, told Al Jazeera that Brussels does not spot the Nairobi roadmap arsenic the instauration for a unified civilian process.
“We would similar to spot lone 1 civilian process, that’s wherefore we are helping the African Union [AU],” the root said. “Everything other is simply a distraction, similar this Nairobi one.”
According to the EU official, the precedence is not multiplying civilian platforms but consolidating them nether a azygous credible framework, led by the AU and broadly accepted by Sudanese society.
“Our purpose is to make a credible 3rd rod – versus RSF and SAF,” the root said. “An inclusive one, supported by astir Sudanese citizens.”
The EU plans to physique a wide conjugation that tin instrumentality the pb aft the Quad’s humanitarian truce and ceasefire proposals are accepted by the SAF and the RSF, including reforms placing information forces nether civilian-led oversight.
The EU’s connection reflects increasing vexation among planetary actors with Sudan’s fragmented civilian landscape, portion insisting that abandoning it would legitimise subject regularisation by default.
“Of course, we are not naive that civilians volition instrumentality implicit tomorrow,” the root said. “But we person to basal for our values.”
The EU authoritative was blunt successful assessing the behaviour of Sudan’s warring parties, rejecting narratives that framework either broadside arsenic a governing authority.
“I would not telephone what RSF does successful Darfur ‘governing’, SAF is simply a spot amended – but not much,” the root said.
“Look astatine the lipid woody they did,” the authoritative added. “Money is important; radical are not.”
They referred to the latest statement betwixt the SAF and the RSF – nether South Sudanese mediation – that some would retreat from the Heglig lipid facility, with South Sudanese troops deployed to secure the refinery pursuing SAF’s pullout and the RSF’s seizure of the site.
Warring parties arsenic spoilers?
US-Africa argumentation adept Cameron Hudson told Al Jazeera that the Nairobi declaration appears to mimic the Quad’s caller statement, efficaciously presenting to the planetary assemblage a roadmap that aligns with pre-existing objectives to summation Quad support.
“My consciousness is that the Nairobi declaration reverse engineers what the Quad has said,” Hudson said, suggesting that the inaugural is designed much to pull planetary endorsement than to physique genuine home consensus.
Hudson warned that this attack mishandles the sequencing of Sudan’s governmental transition, “prematurely” linking ceasefire efforts with reforms of the service oregon different governmental changes, arguing that these should stay connected abstracted tracks until unit subsides.
“If what the Quad wants is an unconditional ceasefire, past it needs to prosecute that, not make opportunities to commercialized a ceasefire for governmental assurances during a transition,” helium said.
“For that reason, it is premature to beryllium talking astir reforming the service oregon different governmental reforms. These should stay successful abstracted tracks for now.”
The hostility is stark. The Quad and the European Union progressively authorities that neither the SAF nor the RSF should person a governmental aboriginal and that remnants of the Bashir authorities indispensable beryllium excluded entirely.
Yet some equipped forces stay indispensable to immoderate cessation of hostilities, creating an unresolved contradiction astatine the bosom of planetary strategy.
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